Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited ₹7.47, price ₹20.78, upside -64.0%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹8.95 – ₹45.15 · fair‑value band ₹5.82 – ₹8.48 · the ₹20.78 price screens above the ₹7.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of sugar and alcohol in India. It operates through Sugar, Distillery, and Power segments. The company offers sugar by-products, such as molasses, bagasse, fly ash, and press mud; and bio-compost/bio-manure.
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Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of sugar and alcohol in India. It operates through Sugar, Distillery, and Power segments. The company offers sugar by-products, such as molasses, bagasse, fly ash, and press mud; and bio-compost/bio-manure. It also generates and sells power to the Uttar Pradesh state grid. In addition, the company produces and sells industrial alcohol to alcohol-based chemical plants; and ethanol to oil companies. The company was formerly known as Bajaj Hindusthan Limited and changed its name to Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited in January 2015. The company was incorporated in 1931 and is based in Noida, India.
Stock analysis
Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND) currently trades at ₹20.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹7.47, implying the stock looks roughly 178.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹10.83 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the ₹20.78 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ₹2.55, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹5.82 (bear) to ₹8.48 (bull), the price of ₹20.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited reported revenue of ₹54.5B in FY2026 versus ₹55.0B in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹1.3B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹42.7B (≈ $446M) · P/E ratio 24.2 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) ₹0.8600 · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin 19.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −64%, BAJAJHIND screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹5.82Fair Value ₹7.47Bull ₹8.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.4241 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.8% (2021) → 2.8% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.4% a year for the price.
Compare Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−64.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)19.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.12× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.78× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA20.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)37· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)59· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹7.47 versus a price of ₹20.78, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAJAJHIND?
Our model-based fair value for Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is ₹7.47 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹20.78.
What is the quality score of BAJAJHIND?
Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹7.47 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹5.82, optimistic scenario ₹8.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹7.47, about −64% upside versus a price of ₹20.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹5.82, optimistic scenario ₹8.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹54.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +39.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BAJAJHIND use?
Our models discount Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited that is +39.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited grew -3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +39.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (+39.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.07 %: that much free cash flow Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited it is ₹7.47 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹20.78. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BAJAJHIND trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹20.78, fair value ₹7.47, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAJAJHIND?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹20.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹7.47). For Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited the two are ₹13.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited worth?
The market values Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited at about ₹42.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹20.78; our models calculate a fair value of ₹7.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAJAJHIND?
Our models span a range for Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited: cautious scenario ₹5.82, base ₹7.47, optimistic ₹8.48 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹20.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BAJAJHIND?
Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹7.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 20.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAJAJHIND from its 52-week high?
Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited trades at ₹20.78, about 14% below its 52-week high of ₹24.23 and 39% above the low of ₹14.93 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹7.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹20.78, calculated fair value ₹7.47 (−64%), Quality Score 38/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAJAJHIND calculated?
We run Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹7.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was ₹20.78. Our model-based fair value is ₹7.47, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹8.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
The market capitalisation of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is ₹42.7B (≈ $446M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is 0.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
Earnings per share at Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited are ₹0.8600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
The net margin of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is 2.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
The operating margin of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
Revenue at Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is growing +7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND)?
Earnings per share at Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited are growing +23.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND) carry?
The net debt of Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited is ₹34.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 30.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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