Balco Group AB (BALCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Balco Group AB SEK 1.91, price SEK 16.40, upside -88.4%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 14.00 – kr 138.17 · fair‑value band kr 1.91 – kr 4.83 · the kr 16.40 price screens above the kr 1.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Balco Group AB engages in developing, manufacturing, selling, and installing balcony systems in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands. The company operates through Renovation and New Build segments.
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Balco Group AB engages in developing, manufacturing, selling, and installing balcony systems in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands. The company operates through Renovation and New Build segments. It offers glazed and open balconies; facade solutions; and privacy screens, side and middle screens, glass corners, balcony doors, and electric awnings. It also provides bricklaying, plastering, concrete cutting, renovations for ventilation, and installation of supplementary insulation services; integrated heat pump solutions; installation of solar cells and window replacements; and after-sales services. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Växjö, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Balco Group AB (BALCO) currently trades at kr 16.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.91, 88.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 11.11 per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the kr 16.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 0.2400, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 1.91 (bear) to kr 4.83 (bull), the price of kr 16.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Balco Group AB reported revenue of 1.3B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.1B SEK in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was −35.8M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 378M SEK (≈ $37.6M) · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.2700 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −2.8% · Return on equity −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin −0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −88%, BALCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (kr 0.2400 to kr 21.32). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear kr 1.91Fair Value kr 1.91Bull kr 4.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.6% (2020) → −2.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−88.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.05× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.03× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF3.5× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 82
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Balco Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BALCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Balco Group AB (BALCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 1.91 versus a price of kr 16.40, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BALCO?
Our model-based fair value for Balco Group AB is kr 1.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 16.40.
What is the quality score of BALCO?
Balco Group AB has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 1.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1.91, optimistic scenario kr 4.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Balco Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 1.91, about −88% upside versus a price of kr 16.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 1.91, optimistic scenario kr 4.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
Balco Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Balco Group AB pay a dividend?
Balco Group AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Balco Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +27.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BALCO use?
Our models discount Balco Group AB at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Balco Group AB that is +27.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Balco Group AB (BALCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Balco Group AB grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies +27.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Balco Group AB (BALCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Balco Group AB (+27.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.86 %: that much free cash flow Balco Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Balco Group AB it is kr 1.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 16.40. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Balco Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BALCO trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 16.40, fair value kr 1.91, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BALCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 16.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 1.91). For Balco Group AB the two are kr 14.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Balco Group AB worth?
The market values Balco Group AB at about 378M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 16.40; our models calculate a fair value of kr 1.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BALCO?
Our models span a range for Balco Group AB: cautious scenario kr 1.91, base kr 1.91, optimistic kr 4.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 16.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Balco Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.8%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BALCO from its 52-week high?
Balco Group AB trades at kr 16.40, about 40% below its 52-week high of kr 27.50 and 17% above the low of kr 14.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 1.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Balco Group AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Balco Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 16.40, calculated fair value kr 1.91 (−88%), Quality Score 39/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BALCO calculated?
We run Balco Group AB through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 1.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Balco Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 16.40. Our model-based fair value is kr 1.91, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Balco Group AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 4.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 1.91 to kr 4.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Balco Group AB (BALCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Balco Group AB grew +4.6 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin −9.6 %, tax rate +2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Balco Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
The market capitalisation of Balco Group AB is 378M SEK (≈ $37.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Balco Group AB is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
Earnings per share at Balco Group AB are kr −0.2700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
The dividend yield of Balco Group AB is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
The net margin of Balco Group AB is −2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Balco Group AB is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Balco Group AB is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
The operating margin of Balco Group AB is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
Revenue at Balco Group AB is growing −5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Balco Group AB (BALCO)?
Earnings per share at Balco Group AB are growing −97.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Balco Group AB (BALCO) carry?
The net debt of Balco Group AB is 426M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 39.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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