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Fastighets AB (BALDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Fastighets AB $2.76, price $4.62, upside -40.2%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Fastighets AB
BALDF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $2.76 · Strongly overvalued (−40.2%)
✓Quality 61/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 51.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 55/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $2.76 to $11.04
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
53‑month range $3.36 – $8.81 · fair‑value band $2.76 – $11.04 · the $4.62 price screens above the $2.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Fastighets AB Balder (publ) owns, manages, and develops properties in Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Its property portfolio comprises offices, shops, warehouses, restaurants, schools, and others, as well as hotel properties. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Fastighets AB (BALDF) currently trades at $4.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.76, 40.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $7.36 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $4.62 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.4600, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.76 (bear) to $11.04 (bull), the price of $4.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Fastighets AB reported revenue of 13.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 9.0B SEK in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was 7.6B SEK in FY2025, compounding −19.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.4B · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 5.28 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 55.5% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −40%, BALDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.76
Fair Value $2.76
Bull $11.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4310 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
n/a
$7.76
$28.78
77
Growth DCF
n/a
$8.45
$23.60
75
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$6.97
$18.81
72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
n/a
$7.76
$28.78
77
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$1.13
>$4.52
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$6.97
$18.81
72
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$2.19
>$8.76
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$6.54
$20.38
65
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$5.97
$7.96
$9.95
58
P/B Multiple
$8.67
$11.57
$14.46
55
EV/EBIT
$1.16
$5.66
$10.15
59
EV/EBITDA
n/a
$1.72
$5.22
62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.19
$5.61
$8.38
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
n/a
$8.45
$23.60
75
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$0.4600
>$1.84
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.89
$7.36
$8.26
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
27
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
’14
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’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+30.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.46.3% vs 27.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.126% → 67%
2025 sits 833% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
BALDF screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 130 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 119.10 | CHF 44.83 | −62% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 63.00 THB | 71.37 THB | +13% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹1,978 | ₹405.25 | −80% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,478 | ₹297.85 | −80% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 17.15 SAR | 15.41 SAR | −10% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.69 | ¥0.7900 | −71% |
| Allreal Holding ALLN | CHF 193.00 | CHF 84.23 | −56% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,630 CLP | 3,708 CLP | +2% |
| The St. Joe Company JOE | $66.01 | $34.53 | −48% |
| Singapore Land Group U06 | 3.09 SGD | 3.18 SGD | +3% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Fastighets AB (BALDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.76 versus a price of $4.62, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BALDF?
Our model-based fair value for Fastighets AB is $2.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.62.
What is the quality score of BALDF?
Fastighets AB has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.76, optimistic scenario $11.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fastighets AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.76, about −40% upside versus a price of $4.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.76, optimistic scenario $11.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
Fastighets AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.6B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Fastighets AB pay a dividend?
Fastighets AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fastighets AB it is $2.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.62. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fastighets AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BALDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.62, fair value $2.76, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BALDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.76). For Fastighets AB the two are $1.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fastighets AB worth?
The market values Fastighets AB at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.62; our models calculate a fair value of $2.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BALDF?
Our models span a range for Fastighets AB: cautious scenario $2.76, base $2.76, optimistic $11.04 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BALDF?
Fastighets AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 21.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fastighets AB (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 1.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BALDF from its 52-week high?
Fastighets AB trades at $4.62, about 39% below its 52-week high of $7.55 and at the low of $4.62 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fastighets AB?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fastighets AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.62, calculated fair value $2.76 (−40%), Quality Score 61/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BALDF calculated?
We run Fastighets AB through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Fastighets AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $4.62. Our model-based fair value is $2.76, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fastighets AB right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.76 to $11.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Fastighets AB (BALDF) come from?
Earnings per share at Fastighets AB grew +6.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.1 %, EBIT margin −10.2 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Fastighets AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
The market capitalisation of Fastighets AB is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fastighets AB is 5.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
Earnings per share at Fastighets AB are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
The dividend yield of Fastighets AB is 2.3% (payout 19.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
The net margin of Fastighets AB is 55.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fastighets AB is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fastighets AB is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
Revenue at Fastighets AB is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fastighets AB (BALDF)?
Earnings per share at Fastighets AB are growing −27.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Fastighets AB (BALDF) generate?
The free cash flow of Fastighets AB is 5.3B SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Fastighets AB (BALDF) carry?
The net debt of Fastighets AB is 142B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 26.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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