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BlackBerry Ltd (BB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of BlackBerry Ltd $1.58, price $8.38, upside -81.2%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA09228F1036

BL BlackBerry Ltd logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

BlackBerry Ltd

BB · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $1.58 · Strongly overvalued (−81%)
✓Quality 69/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −9.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$13.41 $2.11 Fair Value $1.58 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.11 – $13.41 · fair‑value band $1.16 – $2.01 · the $8.38 price screens above the $1.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

BlackBerry Limited provides intelligent software and services to enterprises and governments worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Secure Communications, QNX, and Licensing.

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BlackBerry Limited provides intelligent software and services to enterprises and governments worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Secure Communications, QNX, and Licensing. The company offers BlackBerry Dynamics, a development platform and secure container for mobile applications; BlackBerry Workspaces a secure Enterprise File Sync and Share (EFSS) solution; BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) Enterprise, an enterprise-grade secure instant messaging solution for messaging, voice, and video; BlackBerry SecuSUITE, a multi-OS voice and text messaging solution; BlackBerry AtHoc, a secure networked critical event management solution; and BlackBerry unified endpoint management (UEM) solutions. It also provides BlackBerry Certicom, a patented elliptic curve cryptography, which provides device security, anti-counterfeiting, and product authentication solutions; BlackBerry Radar offers asset monitoring and telematics solutions for transportation and logistics; and BlackBerry Development Platform, an enterprise-grade toolset. In addition, the company offers enterprise consulting and engineering consulting services. Further, it is involved in patent licensing. The company was formerly known as Research In Motion Limited and changed its name to BlackBerry Limited in July 2013. BlackBerry Limited was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Waterloo, Canada.

Stock analysis

BlackBerry Ltd (BB) currently trades at $8.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.58, implying the stock looks roughly 430.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $1.94 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $8.38 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.7700, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.16 (bear) to $2.01 (bull), the price of $8.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

BlackBerry Ltd reported revenue of $558M in FY2026 versus $718M in FY2022, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was $54.1M in FY2026, compounding +45.7%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $6.4B · P/E ratio 93.1 · P/S ratio 9.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin 17.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 166% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −81%, BB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.16 Fair Value $1.58 Bull $2.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0570 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $0.9700 $1.27 $1.82 81
Growth DCF $1.00 $1.30 $1.78 79
Owner Earnings $1.29 $1.72 $2.48 77
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.9700 $1.27 $1.82 81
Owner Earnings $1.29 $1.72 $2.48 77
5Y Revenue Exit $1.04 $1.48 $2.13 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $1.47 $2.23 $3.24 75
5Y P/E Exit $1.46 $2.21 $3.11 71
10Y Revenue Exit $0.9800 $1.30 $1.65 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.26 $1.75 $2.28 69
10Y P/E Exit $1.25 $1.74 $2.21 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.6300 $0.7700 $0.8600 67
EPV $1.07 $1.22 $1.35 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1.94 $2.58 $3.23 63
P/S Multiple $1.18 $1.57 $1.96 58
P/B Multiple $1.18 $1.57 $1.96 55
EV/EBIT $2.20 $2.88 $3.57 66
EV/EBITDA $2.09 $2.74 $3.40 67
EV/Revenue $1.18 $1.62 $2.07 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.6400 $0.8500 $1.27 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.00 $1.30 $1.78 79
Rev-Margin DCF $1.04 $1.50 $2.07 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.02 $1.07 $1.14 71
ROIC Compounder $1.07 $1.22 $1.37 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $1.36 $1.94 $2.52 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 82
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −12.7% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+36.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−124% → 12%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 17.4%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+46.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +43.5% a year for the price and +6.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+10.1%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+10.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.3%
Projected 2031 (sales)+7.2%

BB screens 431% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 372 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 26% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.26× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 93.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B 8.62× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 11.08× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 136.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 68.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.21× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 49
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Fortinet, Inc FTNT $174.26 $164.92 −5%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $409.24 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $77.53 $101.29 +31%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.76 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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BlackBerry Ltd · Fair Value
$1.58 −431%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BlackBerry Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BB

Frequently asked questions

Is BlackBerry Ltd (BB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.58 versus a price of $8.38, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BB?
Our model-based fair value for BlackBerry Ltd is $1.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.38.
What is the quality score of BB?
BlackBerry Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.16, optimistic scenario $2.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BlackBerry Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.58, about −81% upside versus a price of $8.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.16, optimistic scenario $2.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
BlackBerry Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $549M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BlackBerry Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +46.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BB use?
Our models discount BlackBerry Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BlackBerry Ltd that is +46.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BlackBerry Ltd (BB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BlackBerry Ltd grew -9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +46.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BlackBerry Ltd (BB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BlackBerry Ltd (+46.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.94 %: that much free cash flow BlackBerry Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BlackBerry Ltd it is $1.58 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.38. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BlackBerry Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BB trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.38, fair value $1.58, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.58). For BlackBerry Ltd the two are $6.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BlackBerry Ltd worth?
The market values BlackBerry Ltd at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.38; our models calculate a fair value of $1.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BB?
Our models span a range for BlackBerry Ltd: cautious scenario $1.16, base $1.58, optimistic $2.01 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BB?
BlackBerry Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 93.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 8.6, P/S 11.1, EV/EBITDA 68.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BB?
The PEG ratio of BlackBerry Ltd is 2.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
Balance-sheet figures for BlackBerry Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BB from its 52-week high?
BlackBerry Ltd trades at $8.38, about 35% below its 52-week high of $12.81 and 166% above the low of $3.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BlackBerry Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BlackBerry Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.38, calculated fair value $1.58 (−81%), Quality Score 69/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BB calculated?
We run BlackBerry Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. BlackBerry Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.38. Our model-based fair value is $1.58, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BlackBerry Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of BlackBerry Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
The market capitalisation of BlackBerry Ltd is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BlackBerry Ltd is 9.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
Earnings per share at BlackBerry Ltd are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 93.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
The net margin of BlackBerry Ltd is 9.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BlackBerry Ltd is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BlackBerry Ltd is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
The operating margin of BlackBerry Ltd is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BlackBerry Ltd (BB)?
Revenue at BlackBerry Ltd is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does BlackBerry Ltd (BB) hold?
BlackBerry Ltd holds more cash than debt, $59.4M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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