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Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN BMG1368B1028

Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings

BCAUF · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $0.4800 · Strongly undervalued (+85%)

✓Quality 65/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −18.1 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 64.0% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

·1.21% dividend yield

!Narrow moat 40/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $0.3900 to bull $0.5800 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 65/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1060 – $0.5817 · fair‑value band $0.3900 – $0.5800 · the $0.2601 price screens below the $0.4800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells minibuses and automotive components in the People?s Republic of China. The company offers its minibuses under the JinBei and Granse brands. It also provides automotive parts and components, including mouldings, seats, axles, safety and airbag systems, interior decoration items, and engines for minibuses, sedans, SUVs, light duty trucks, etc. In addition, the company is also involved in the manufacture and sale of BMW vehicles. It has strategic partnership with BMW, Toyota, Magna, Bosch, Continental, Delphi, TI Automotive, and Johnson Controls. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong, and is considered a Red Chip company due to its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Stock analysis

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF) currently trades at $0.2601, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4800, implying the stock looks roughly 45.8% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $4.25 per share, and 14 of the 15 models we run sit above the $0.2601 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.5800, and 1 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.3900 (bear) to $0.5800 (bull), the price of $0.2601 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding −36.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.9B · P/S ratio 3.70 · EPS (TTM) $0.1010 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 64.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.6% · Operating margin −15.4% · Revenue (TTM) $793M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 85%, BCAUF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3900 Fair Value $0.4800 Bull $0.5800

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0641 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $3.17 $4.17 $5.95 81

Growth DCF $3.29 $4.25 $5.83 79

Owner Earnings $1.91 $2.44 $3.39 77

All 15 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $3.17 $4.17 $5.95 81

Owner Earnings $1.91 $2.44 $3.39 77

5Y Revenue Exit $1.59 $1.70 $1.85 74

5Y P/E Exit $3.00 $4.14 $5.50 71

10Y Revenue Exit $2.21 $2.35 $2.46 68

10Y P/E Exit $3.05 $3.82 $4.55 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $1.17 $1.43 $1.60 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $2.83 $3.78 $4.72 63

P/S Multiple $0.0900 $0.1200 $0.1500 58

P/B Multiple $2.19 $2.92 $3.65 55

EV/Revenue $0.5500 $0.5800 $0.6200 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.9300 $1.25 $1.87 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $3.29 $4.25 $5.83 79

Economic Profit

Residual Income $1.58 $1.72 $2.24 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $2.00 $2.85 $3.71 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 40

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 25

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 96

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 86

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 67

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 0

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 87

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 47

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

+5.1%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+0.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−18.1%

Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.5%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−20.9%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−22.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs −6%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−340% → −40%

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 14.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

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Compare Brilliance China Automotive Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 114 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +108% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on assets −2% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 64% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) −15% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 21% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.14× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 3.70× · Priciest 25%

P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.43× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Tesla, Inc TSLA	$365.44	$42.25	−88%
Toyota Motor Corporation TM	$198.20	$255.70	+29%
BYD Company 81211	HK$68.15	HK$43.27	−37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380	382,500 KRW	372,872 KRW	−3%
Ferrari N.V RACE	€356.20	€328.58	−8%
General Motors Company GM	$85.62	$52.69	−38%
Ford Motor Company F	$13.97	$11.51	−18%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG	€46.68	€106.16	+127%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911	€44.84	€21.98	−51%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI	₹12,400	₹8,236	−34%

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Brilliance China Automotive Holdings · Fair Value
$0.4800 +46%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCAUF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Brilliance China Automotive Holdings · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$0.4800</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+46%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCAUF

Frequently asked questions

Is Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4800 versus the last price from Sep 1, 2026 of $0.2601, about +85% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of BCAUF?

Our model-based fair value for Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is $0.4800 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 1, 2026): $0.2601.

What is the quality score of BCAUF?

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4800 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3900, optimistic scenario $0.5800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Brilliance China Automotive Holdings stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $0.4800, about +85% upside versus the last price from Sep 1, 2026 of $0.2601 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.3900, optimistic scenario $0.5800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $793M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).

Does Brilliance China Automotive Holdings pay a dividend?

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Brilliance China Automotive Holdings it is $0.4800 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.2601. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Brilliance China Automotive Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 13, 2026, BCAUF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2601, fair value $0.4800, a gap of about +85% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BCAUF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2601); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4800). For Brilliance China Automotive Holdings the two are $0.2199 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Brilliance China Automotive Holdings worth?

The market values Brilliance China Automotive Holdings at about $2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.2601; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4800 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCAUF?

Our models span a range for Brilliance China Automotive Holdings: cautious scenario $0.3900, base $0.4800, optimistic $0.5800 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.2601). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the PEG ratio of BCAUF?

The PEG ratio of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is 0.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.

How far is BCAUF from its 52-week high?

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings trades at $0.2601, about 54% below its 52-week high of $0.5626 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4800 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Brilliance China Automotive Holdings?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Brilliance China Automotive Holdings stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.2601, calculated fair value $0.4800 (+85%), Quality Score 65/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BCAUF calculated?

We run Brilliance China Automotive Holdings through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Brilliance China Automotive Holdings currently trades 85 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What should I pay attention to with Brilliance China Automotive Holdings right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.3900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

The market capitalisation of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is $2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is 3.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

Earnings per share at Brilliance China Automotive Holdings are $0.1010. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

The dividend yield of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is 1.2% (payout 3.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

The net margin of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is 64.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is −4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

The operating margin of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is −15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

Revenue at Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is growing +20.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF)?

Earnings per share at Brilliance China Automotive Holdings are growing −5.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF) generate?

The free cash flow of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings is $3.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (BCAUF) hold?

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings holds more cash than debt, $5.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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