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Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Bellevue Gold Ltd A$0.64, price A$1.60, upside -59.9%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000019374

BG Bellevue Gold Ltd logo Some data Sep 27, 2026

Bellevue Gold Ltd

BGL · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.6400 · Strongly overvalued (−59.9%)
!Quality 21/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +69.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$2.03 A$0.6400 Fair Value A$0.6400 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.6400 – A$2.03 · fair‑value band A$0.4500 – A$0.8300 · the A$1.60 price screens above the A$0.6400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Bellevue Gold Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold properties in Australia. The company primarily holds interest in the Bellevue gold project located to north-west of Leinster in the Goldfields region of Western Australia.

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Bellevue Gold Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold properties in Australia. The company primarily holds interest in the Bellevue gold project located to north-west of Leinster in the Goldfields region of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Draig Resources Limited and changed its name to Bellevue Gold Limited in July 2018. Bellevue Gold Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL) currently trades at A$1.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6400, implying the stock looks roughly 149.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$0.8000 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$1.60 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.3700, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: A$0.4500 (bear) to A$0.8300 (bull), the price of A$1.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Bellevue Gold Ltd reported revenue of A$506M in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$45.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$2.1B (≈ $1.5B) · P/S ratio 4.04 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0400 · Net margin −9.1% · Return on equity −7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% · Operating margin 6.1% · Revenue (TTM) A$441M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −60%, BGL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.4500 Fair Value A$0.6400 Bull A$0.8300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV A$0.4300 A$0.4800 A$0.5300 74
ROIC Compounder A$0.4300 A$0.4800 A$0.5300 72
EV/EBITDA A$1.17 A$1.54 A$1.92 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV A$0.4300 A$0.4800 A$0.5300 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT A$0.6100 A$0.8000 A$0.9900 66
EV/EBITDA A$1.17 A$1.54 A$1.92 67
EV/Revenue A$0.3900 A$0.5400 A$0.7000 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2800 A$0.3700 A$0.5500 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder A$0.4300 A$0.4800 A$0.5300 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 10
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 80
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+69.5%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−270,131.0% (2019) → 27.3% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BGL screens 149% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 226 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −59.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −2.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −12.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 6.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 20.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.12× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.33× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.55× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 2
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 19

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEM $121.43 $133.57 +10%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥30.01 ¥44.45 +48%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $194.48 $219.71 +13%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $142.92 $87.78 −39%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $257.87 $283.66 +10%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $99.03 $88.63 −11%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $25.05 $51.30 +105%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $252.49 $277.74 +10%
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥29.07 ¥23.61 −19%
Pan American Silver Corp PAAS $48.04 $59.13 +23%

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Bellevue Gold Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.6400 −149%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bellevue Gold Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BGL

Frequently asked questions

Is Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.6400 versus a price of A$1.60, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BGL?
Our model-based fair value for Bellevue Gold Ltd is A$0.6400 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.60.
What is the quality score of BGL?
Bellevue Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.6400 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.4500, optimistic scenario A$0.8300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bellevue Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.6400, about −60% upside versus a price of A$1.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.4500, optimistic scenario A$0.8300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
Bellevue Gold Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$441M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bellevue Gold Ltd it is A$0.6400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$1.60. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bellevue Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BGL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.60, fair value A$0.6400, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.6400). For Bellevue Gold Ltd the two are A$0.9550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bellevue Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Bellevue Gold Ltd at about A$2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$1.60; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.6400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BGL?
Our models span a range for Bellevue Gold Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.4500, base A$0.6400, optimistic A$0.8300 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$1.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of BGL?
The PEG ratio of Bellevue Gold Ltd is 0.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bellevue Gold Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −7.1%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BGL from its 52-week high?
Bellevue Gold Ltd trades at A$1.60, about 20% below its 52-week high of A$1.99 and 52% above the low of A$1.05 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.6400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bellevue Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bellevue Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$1.60, calculated fair value A$0.6400 (−60%), Quality Score 21/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BGL calculated?
We run Bellevue Gold Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.6400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Bellevue Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was A$1.60. Our model-based fair value is A$0.6400, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bellevue Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.8300). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$0.4500 to A$0.8300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Bellevue Gold Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
The market capitalisation of Bellevue Gold Ltd is A$2.1B (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bellevue Gold Ltd is 4.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
Earnings per share at Bellevue Gold Ltd are A$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
The net margin of Bellevue Gold Ltd is −9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bellevue Gold Ltd is −7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bellevue Gold Ltd is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
The operating margin of Bellevue Gold Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
Revenue at Bellevue Gold Ltd is growing +20.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL)?
Earnings per share at Bellevue Gold Ltd are growing −81.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL) generate?
The free cash flow of Bellevue Gold Ltd is −A$52.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bellevue Gold Ltd (BGL) carry?
The net debt of Bellevue Gold Ltd is A$191M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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