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Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Banca Generali S.p.A. €33.60, price €65.85, upside -49.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · IT · ISIN IT0001031084

BG Banca Generali S.p.A. logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Banca Generali S.p.A.

BGN · MI

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €33.60 · Strongly overvalued (−49%)
!Quality 49/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 46.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·2.13% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
✓Wide moat 74/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€68.20 €19.31 Fair Value €33.60 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €19.31 – €68.20 · fair‑value band €21.74 – €42.00 · the €65.85 price screens above the €33.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Banca Generali S.p.A. distributes financial products and services for high net worth, affluent and private customers through financial advisors in Italy. The company operates through Private Banking CGU (PB CGU) and Senior Partner CGU (SP CGU) segments.

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Banca Generali S.p.A. distributes financial products and services for high net worth, affluent and private customers through financial advisors in Italy. The company operates through Private Banking CGU (PB CGU) and Senior Partner CGU (SP CGU) segments. It offers banking accounts and services comprising current and deposit accounts, other bespoke banking, and payment services; custody and administration services for the financial instruments; advisory services on the purchase and sale of instruments on the primary and secondary markets; asset management services, such as mutual investment funds, in-house products, and portfolio management solutions; distributes insurance products; and insurance investments. The company also provides wealth advisory services, including corporate advisory, which supports companies' growth and extraordinary finance transactions; real estate advisory, focused on the valuation and management of real estate; art and passion Advisory, dedicated to works of art and collectibles; and family protection and planning, which provides advice on wealth protection, transfer, and generational continuity for family and business assets. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Banca Generali S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A.

Stock analysis

Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN) currently trades at €65.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €33.60, implying the stock looks roughly 96.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €42.59 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €65.85 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €9.21, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €21.74 (bear) to €42.00 (bull), the price of €65.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Banca Generali S.p.A. reported revenue of €1.6B in FY2025 versus €817M in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was €446M in FY2025, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €7.5B · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 3.98 · EPS (TTM) €4.60 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 27.8% · Return on equity 36.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −49%, BGN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €21.74 Fair Value €33.60 Bull €42.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.34 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM €24.74 €49.29 €74.63 67
DDM Multi-Stage €24.74 €42.59 €52.03 67
Residual Income €22.71 €27.52 €88.17 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €24.74 €49.29 €74.63 67
DDM Multi-Stage €24.74 €42.59 €52.03 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €38.03 €50.71 €63.39 63
P/B Multiple €14.43 €19.24 €24.05 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €6.87 €9.21 €13.74 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €22.71 €27.52 €88.17 64

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 7
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 11%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.50% → 34%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

BGN screens 96% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (36 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −49% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 46% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 74% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 46% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.51× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 17.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG 15.22× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)43 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.69 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.25 HK$62.30 +22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banca Generali S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BGN

Frequently asked questions

Is Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €33.60 versus a price of €65.85, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BGN?
Our model-based fair value for Banca Generali S.p.A. is €33.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €65.85.
What is the quality score of BGN?
Banca Generali S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €33.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €21.74, optimistic scenario €42.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banca Generali S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €33.60, about −49% upside versus a price of €65.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €21.74, optimistic scenario €42.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
Banca Generali S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Banca Generali S.p.A. pay a dividend?
Banca Generali S.p.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banca Generali S.p.A. it is €33.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €65.85. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banca Generali S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BGN trades above its calculated fair value: price €65.85, fair value €33.60, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€65.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€33.60). For Banca Generali S.p.A. the two are €32.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banca Generali S.p.A. worth?
The market values Banca Generali S.p.A. at about €7.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €65.85; our models calculate a fair value of €33.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BGN?
Our models span a range for Banca Generali S.p.A.: cautious scenario €21.74, base €33.60, optimistic €42.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €65.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BGN?
Banca Generali S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €33.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 15.2, P/B 5.4, P/S 7.5, EV/EBITDA 17.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BGN?
The PEG ratio of Banca Generali S.p.A. is 15.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banca Generali S.p.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 36.5%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BGN from its 52-week high?
Banca Generali S.p.A. trades at €65.85, about 3% below its 52-week high of €68.20 and 49% above the low of €44.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €33.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banca Generali S.p.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banca Generali S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €65.85, calculated fair value €33.60 (−49%), Quality Score 49/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BGN calculated?
We run Banca Generali S.p.A. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €33.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Banca Generali S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €65.85. Our model-based fair value is €33.60, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banca Generali S.p.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€42.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€21.74 to €42.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN) come from?
Earnings per share at Banca Generali S.p.A. grew +8.1 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Banca Generali S.p.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
The market capitalisation of Banca Generali S.p.A. is €7.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banca Generali S.p.A. is 3.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
Earnings per share at Banca Generali S.p.A. are €4.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
The dividend yield of Banca Generali S.p.A. is 2.1% (payout 30.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
The net margin of Banca Generali S.p.A. is 27.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banca Generali S.p.A. is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banca Generali S.p.A. is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
The operating margin of Banca Generali S.p.A. is 73.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
Revenue at Banca Generali S.p.A. is growing +46.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN)?
Earnings per share at Banca Generali S.p.A. are growing +70.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN) generate?
The free cash flow of Banca Generali S.p.A. is −€238M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Banca Generali S.p.A. (BGN) carry?
The net debt of Banca Generali S.p.A. is €563M (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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