Biglari Holdings (BH-A) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.2B · ISIN US08986R4083
What is Biglari Holdings really worth?
Biglari Holdings
BH-A · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 504% above our fair value of $319.09.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −3.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($429.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $540.33 – $2,463 · fair‑value band $267.04 – $429.22 · the $1,928 price screens above the $319.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Biglari Holdings (BH-A) currently trades at $1,928, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $319.09, implying the stock looks roughly 504.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1,238 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $1,928 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $318.40, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Biglari Holdings generated revenue of $398M at a net margin of −4.7%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −3.5%. Net debt stands at $89.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $267.04 (bear case) to $429.22 (bull case); at $1,928, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −83%, BH-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($1,238) versus Earnings-Based ($318.40). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Biglari Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily operates and franchises restaurants in the United States. The company owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the Steak n Shake and Western Sizzlin names.
Full company description
Biglari Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily operates and franchises restaurants in the United States. The company owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the Steak n Shake and Western Sizzlin names. It also engages in underwriting commercial truck insurance, including selling physical damage and non-trucking liability insurance to truckers; and property and casualty insurance and reinsurance. In addition, the company operates oil and natural gas properties offshore in Louisiana state waters and in the Permian Basin; and publishes, licenses, and sells magazines under the MAXIM brand names. Further, it involved investment activities. The company was formerly known as The Steak n Shake Company and changed its name to Biglari Holdings Inc. in April 2010. Biglari Holdings Inc. was founded in 1934 and is based in San Antonio, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Biglari Holdings reported revenue of $395M in FY2025 versus $366M in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.5M in FY2025.
BH-A screens 504% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
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