The Berkeley Group (BKG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 3.1B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from £55.71 to £60.16 (+8.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 81% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£40.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (£40.06 to £77.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £28.11 – £49.55 · fair‑value band £40.06 – £77.22 · the £33.16 price screens below the £60.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
The Berkeley Group (BKG) currently trades at £33.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £60.16, implying the stock looks roughly 81.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Berkeley Group generated revenue of £2.4B at a net margin of 15.3%. Revenue declined 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £359M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £40.06 (bear case) to £77.22 (bull case); at £33.16, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 81%, BKG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£69.06) versus Earnings-Based (£26.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led and mixed-use property development and ancillary activities; and land selling activities. It operates under the Berkeley, St Edward, St George, St James, St Joseph, and St William brands.
Full company description
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led and mixed-use property development and ancillary activities; and land selling activities. It operates under the Berkeley, St Edward, St George, St James, St Joseph, and St William brands. The Berkeley Group Holdings plc was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cobham, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The Berkeley Group reported revenue of £2.4B in FY2026 versus £2.3B in FY2022, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was £318M in FY2026, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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