The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc stock £60.67, price £36.66, upside +65.5%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £29.96 – £52.81 · fair‑value band £41.16 – £86.94 · the £36.66 price screens below the £60.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led and mixed-use property development and ancillary activities; and land selling activities.
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It operates under the Berkeley, St Edward, St George, St James, St Joseph, and St William brands. The Berkeley Group Holdings plc was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cobham, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) currently trades at £36.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £60.67, implying the stock looks roughly 40% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £70.45 per share, and 16 of the 25 models we run sit above the £36.66 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £31.47, and 9 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £41.16 (bear) to £86.94 (bull), the price of £36.66 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc reported revenue of £2.4B in FY2026 versus £2.3B in FY2022, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was £318M in FY2026, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £3.5B Mid · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.48 · EPS (TTM) £3.36 · Dividend yield 7.9% · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 65%, BKG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£41.16Fair Value £60.67Bull£86.94
Price £36.66 · Upside +65.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (£1.75 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.7% vs 1.0%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.6% a year for the price and −9.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The main strength is disciplined capital returns through ongoing buybacks while staying ahead of targets, yet the primary weakness is the limited public data available to confirm any durable competitive moat.
Main risk: Persistent buyer hesitation among non-urgent purchasers in the London market would reduce home sales volumes and constrain cash generation despite the shift toward returns.
Berkeley keeps buying back shares for cancellation and remains ahead of its longer-term return target while staying inside the four-year profit plan. Production has been cut to prioritize cash generation over volume in a London market where buyers without urgent need are holding back. Will this focus on returns and balance-sheet strength create more value through continued distributions or free up capacity for renewed investment once sentiment recovers?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+65.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.8% · Above median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)13.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.97× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.48× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.6× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Berkeley Group Holdings plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BKG
Frequently asked questions
Is The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £60.67 versus a price of £36.66, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BKG?
Our model-based fair value for The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is £60.67 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £36.66.
What is the quality score of BKG?
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £60.67 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £41.16, optimistic scenario £86.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Berkeley Group Holdings plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £60.67, about +65% upside versus a price of £36.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £41.16, optimistic scenario £86.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does The Berkeley Group Holdings plc pay a dividend?
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc currently shows a dividend yield of 7.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc has a dividend yield of 7.9%.
What growth is priced into The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Berkeley Group Holdings plc would have to grow free cash flow by -0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BKG use?
Our models discount The Berkeley Group Holdings plc at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Berkeley Group Holdings plc that is -0.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Berkeley Group Holdings plc grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -0.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (-0.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.66 %: that much free cash flow The Berkeley Group Holdings plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Berkeley Group Holdings plc it is £60.67 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of £36.66. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is The Berkeley Group Holdings plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BKG trades below its calculated fair value: price £36.66, fair value £60.67, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BKG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£36.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£60.67). For The Berkeley Group Holdings plc the two are £24.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Berkeley Group Holdings plc worth?
The market values The Berkeley Group Holdings plc at about £3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is £36.66; our models calculate a fair value of £60.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BKG?
Our models span a range for The Berkeley Group Holdings plc: cautious scenario £41.16, base £60.67, optimistic £86.94 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price £36.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BKG?
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £60.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.3, P/B 1.0, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
What is the PEG ratio of BKG?
The PEG ratio of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is 5.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 8.8%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BKG from its 52-week high?
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc trades at £36.66, about 17% below its 52-week high of £44.34 and 18% above the low of £31.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £60.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Berkeley Group Holdings plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Berkeley Group Holdings plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price £36.66, calculated fair value £60.67 (+65%), Quality Score 67/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BKG calculated?
We run The Berkeley Group Holdings plc through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £60.67 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. The Berkeley Group Holdings plc currently trades 40% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £36.66. Our model-based fair value is £60.67, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Berkeley Group Holdings plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£41.16). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (£41.16 to £86.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) come from?
Earnings per share at The Berkeley Group Holdings plc grew −0.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc
How large is the market capitalisation of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The market capitalisation of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is £3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is 1.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
Earnings per share at The Berkeley Group Holdings plc are £3.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The dividend yield of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is 7.9% (payout 86.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The net margin of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is 13.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
The operating margin of The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
Revenue at The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is growing −0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG)?
Earnings per share at The Berkeley Group Holdings plc are growing −20.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) hold?
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc holds more cash than debt, £359M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026