Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.6B
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation
TMHC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from $142.50 to $144.47 (+1.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +1.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 99% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($81.67). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($81.67 to $180.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.69 – $74.80 · fair‑value band $81.67 – $180.74 · the $72.45 price screens below the $144.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) currently trades at $72.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $144.47, implying the stock looks roughly 99.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation generated revenue of $7.6B at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue declined 26.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.1%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $81.67 (bear case) to $180.74 (bull case); at $72.45, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 99%, TMHC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($159.59) versus Dividend Discount ($2.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder and land developer in the United States.
Full company description
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder and land developer in the United States. It designs, builds, and sells single, and multifamily detached and attached homes in markets for entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers under the Taylor Morrison and Esplanade brand names; and develops lifestyle and master-planned communities with single, and multi-family detached and attached homes. The company is also involved in the Build-to-Rent homebuilding business under the Yardly brand name; and provision of financial services, title insurance, and closing settlement services. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation reported revenue of $8.1B in FY2025 versus $7.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $783M in FY2025, compounding +4.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Berkshire Hathaway Completes Acquisition of Taylor Morrison
- Krystal Biotech joins the S&P MidCap 400 as TMHC and AVNS exit indexes
- Taylor Morrison Announces Consent Solicitations
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $149.53 | $179.57 | +20% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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