Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Blue Bird Corp $79.46, price $58.09, upside +36.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.37 – $81.50 · fair‑value band $55.32 – $98.23 · the $58.09 price screens below the $79.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Bus and Parts.
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Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. It offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative power options through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses, as well as diesel engines. The company also sells replacement bus parts; and provides extended warranties related to its products. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through drop ship and a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; independent service centers; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) currently trades at $58.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $79.46, implying the stock looks roughly 26.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $88.12 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $58.09 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $34.95, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $55.32 (bear) to $98.23 (bull), the price of $58.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Blue Bird Corp reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $684M in FY2021, a compound +21.3%/yr. Reported net income was $128M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 1.23 · EPS (TTM) $4.07 · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 54.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3% · Operating margin 11.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 37%, BLBD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $55.32Fair Value $79.46Bull $98.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.00 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+43.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+43.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.42% vs 24%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 16.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.9% a year for the price and +10.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+37% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)54% · Top 25%
Return on assets18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $79.46 versus a price of $58.09, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BLBD?
Our model-based fair value for Blue Bird Corp is $79.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $58.09.
What is the quality score of BLBD?
Blue Bird Corp has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $79.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $55.32, optimistic scenario $98.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Blue Bird Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $79.46, about +37% upside versus a price of $58.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $55.32, optimistic scenario $98.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
Blue Bird Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Blue Bird Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +1.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BLBD use?
Our models discount Blue Bird Corp at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Blue Bird Corp that is +1.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Blue Bird Corp grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +1.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Blue Bird Corp (+1.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.03 %: that much free cash flow Blue Bird Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Blue Bird Corp it is $79.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $58.09. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Blue Bird Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BLBD trades below its calculated fair value: price $58.09, fair value $79.46, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BLBD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($58.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($79.46). For Blue Bird Corp the two are $21.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Blue Bird Corp worth?
The market values Blue Bird Corp at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $58.09; our models calculate a fair value of $79.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BLBD?
Our models span a range for Blue Bird Corp: cautious scenario $55.32, base $79.46, optimistic $98.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $58.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BLBD?
Blue Bird Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $79.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 9.6, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
What is the PEG ratio of BLBD?
The PEG ratio of Blue Bird Corp is 1.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Blue Bird Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 54.5%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BLBD from its 52-week high?
Blue Bird Corp trades at $58.09, about 29% below its 52-week high of $81.50 and 25% above the low of $46.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $79.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Blue Bird Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Blue Bird Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $58.09, calculated fair value $79.46 (+37%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BLBD calculated?
We run Blue Bird Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $79.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Blue Bird Corp currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $58.09. Our model-based fair value is $79.46, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Blue Bird Corp right now?
Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) come from?
Earnings per share at Blue Bird Corp grew +22.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin +12.3 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Blue Bird Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
The market capitalisation of Blue Bird Corp is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Blue Bird Corp is 1.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
Earnings per share at Blue Bird Corp are $4.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
The net margin of Blue Bird Corp is 8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Blue Bird Corp is 54.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Blue Bird Corp is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
The operating margin of Blue Bird Corp is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
Revenue at Blue Bird Corp is growing −1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)?
Earnings per share at Blue Bird Corp are growing +13.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) hold?
Blue Bird Corp holds more cash than debt, $139M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026