Backblaze Inc (BLZE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Backblaze Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $3.31 – $31.50 · fair‑value band $2.99 – $7.20 · the $12.40 price screens above the $4.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Backblaze, Inc., a cloud storage platform, provides businesses and consumers cloud services to store, use, and protect data in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. The company offers cloud services through a web-scale software infrastructure built on commodity hardware.
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Backblaze, Inc., a cloud storage platform, provides businesses and consumers cloud services to store, use, and protect data in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. The company offers cloud services through a web-scale software infrastructure built on commodity hardware. It also provides B2 Cloud Storage, which enables customers to store data, developers to build applications, and partners to expand their use cases. In addition, the company offers cloud storage solutions for a range of cases, such as public, hybrid, and multi-cloud data storage; application development and DevOps; content delivery and edge computing; security and ransomware protection; media management; backup, archive, and tape replacement; and Internet of Things. Further, it provides computer backup that automatically backs up data from laptops and desktops for businesses and individuals, which offers a subscription-based software-as-a-service and serves use cases, including MAC and PC backup; ransomware protection; theft and loss recovery; data archiving; organization and managed service provider level management; and remote access. The company serves individuals, developers, MSPS, small and medium-sized businesses, and large enterprises across industries, including media, AI innovators, creative agencies, academic institutions, government agencies, research institutes, and gaming companies. Backblaze, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Backblaze Inc (BLZE) currently trades at $12.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.45, implying the stock looks roughly 178.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $7.06 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $12.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.9300, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.99 (bear) to $7.20 (bull), the price of $12.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Backblaze Inc reported revenue of $146M in FY2025 versus $67.5M in FY2021, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$25.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $697M · P/S ratio 3.19 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3900 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −17.6% · Return on equity −27.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.0% · Operating margin −8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 280% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −64%, BLZE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.99Fair Value $4.45Bull $7.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.1%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.9% (2020) → −13.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 379 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−92% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−15% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.74× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.19× · Pricier than median
P/FCF25.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)59· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Backblaze Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BLZE
Frequently asked questions
Is Backblaze Inc (BLZE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.45 versus a price of $12.40, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BLZE?
Our model-based fair value for Backblaze Inc is $4.45 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.40.
What is the quality score of BLZE?
Backblaze Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.45 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.99, optimistic scenario $7.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Backblaze Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.45, about −64% upside versus a price of $12.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.99, optimistic scenario $7.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Backblaze Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $150M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Backblaze Inc pay a dividend?
Backblaze Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Backblaze Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BLZE use?
Our models discount Backblaze Inc at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Backblaze Inc that is +28.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Backblaze Inc (BLZE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Backblaze Inc grew +22.1 % a year. The price currently implies +28.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Backblaze Inc (BLZE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Backblaze Inc (+28.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.70 %: that much free cash flow Backblaze Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Backblaze Inc it is $4.45 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $12.40. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Backblaze Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, BLZE trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.40, fair value $4.45, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BLZE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.45). For Backblaze Inc the two are $7.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Backblaze Inc worth?
The market values Backblaze Inc at about $697M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $12.40; our models calculate a fair value of $4.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BLZE?
Our models span a range for Backblaze Inc: cautious scenario $2.99, base $4.45, optimistic $7.20 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $12.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Backblaze Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −27.6%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BLZE from its 52-week high?
Backblaze Inc trades at $12.40, about 14% below its 52-week high of $10.86 and 280% above the low of $3.26 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Backblaze Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Backblaze Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $12.40, calculated fair value $4.45 (−64%), Quality Score 47/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BLZE calculated?
We run Backblaze Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Backblaze Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Backblaze Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.99 to $7.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Backblaze Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The market capitalisation of Backblaze Inc is $697M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Backblaze Inc is 3.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Earnings per share at Backblaze Inc are $−0.3900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The dividend yield of Backblaze Inc is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The net margin of Backblaze Inc is −17.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Backblaze Inc is −27.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Backblaze Inc is −25.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The operating margin of Backblaze Inc is −8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Revenue at Backblaze Inc is growing +11.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Backblaze Inc (BLZE) carry?
The net debt of Backblaze Inc is $32.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026