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Backblaze Inc (BLZE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Backblaze Inc stock $5.95, price $9.10, upside -34.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value 30%+ above price?No
  2. Quality 50+?No
  3. In an uptrend?Yes
  4. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Technology US

BI Backblaze Inc logo Thin data Oct 28, 2026

Backblaze Inc

BLZE · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

Our calculation puts a fair price 35% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 47/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +22.1 %/yr in USD)
Fair value $5.95 · Overvalued (−34.6%)
Loss-making · -13.1% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (1/11)
Narrow moat 12/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$31.50 $3.31 Fair Value $5.95 Nov 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.31 – $31.50 · fair‑value band $3.69 – $9.38 · the $9.10 price screens above the $5.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Backblaze, Inc., a cloud storage platform, provides businesses and consumers cloud services to store, use, and protect data in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. The company offers cloud services through a web-scale software infrastructure built on commodity hardware.

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It also provides B2 Cloud Storage, which enables customers to store data, developers to build applications, and partners to expand their use cases.

In addition, the company offers cloud storage solutions for a range of cases, such as public, hybrid, and multi-cloud data storage; application development and DevOps; content delivery and edge computing; security and ransomware protection; media management; backup, archive, and tape replacement; and Internet of Things.

Further, it provides computer backup that automatically backs up data from laptops and desktops for businesses and individuals, which offers a subscription-based software-as-a-service and serves use cases, including MAC and PC backup; ransomware protection; theft and loss recovery; data archiving; organization and managed service provider level management; and remote access.

The company serves individuals, developers, MSPS, small and medium-sized businesses, and large enterprises across industries, including media, AI innovators, creative agencies, academic institutions, government agencies, research institutes, and gaming companies.

Backblaze, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Stock analysis

Backblaze Inc (BLZE) currently trades at $9.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.95, 34.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $6.33 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $9.10 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.06, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $3.69 (bear) to $9.38 (bull), the price of $9.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Backblaze Inc reported revenue of $146M in FY2025 versus $67.5M in FY2021, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$25.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $553M Small · P/S ratio 3.40 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3600 · Net margin −13.1% · Return on equity −24.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.0% · Operating margin −6.7% · Revenue (TTM) $156M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 175% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −35%, BLZE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.69 Fair Value $5.95 Bull $9.38
Price $9.10 · Upside -34.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $4.47 $6.08 $10.73 78
Growth DCF $4.21 $6.33 $10.06 77
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.59 $3.66 $5.64 75
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.47 $6.08 $10.73 78
5Y Revenue Exit $3.69 $5.95 $10.49 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.59 $3.66 $5.64 75
10Y Revenue Exit $3.82 $6.89 $9.38 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $3.24 $5.01 $7.91 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.6600 $1.06 $1.45 66
EV/Revenue $2.25 $3.44 $4.62 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3400 $0.4600 $0.6800 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.21 $6.33 $10.06 77
Rev-Margin DCF $3.69 $6.69 $11.31 70

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 28
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 65
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 61
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 74
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 9
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 57
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 27
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.9% (2020) → −13.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+20.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.9% a year for the price and +18.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+18.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+25.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+22.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+19.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+16.9%

BLZE screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 344 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −34.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −13.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −13.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −6.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.64× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.54× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow 29.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)89 · sector 59
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $524.51 $576.96 +10% vs BLZE
Block, Inc XYZ $74.55 $76.95 +3% vs BLZE
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $183.33 $164.68 −10% vs BLZE
Oracle Corporation ORCL $130.53 $111.97 −14% vs BLZE
NetApp, Inc NTAP $222.08 $156.80 −29% vs BLZE
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $474.42 $251.64 −47% vs BLZE
Zscaler, Inc ZS $260.15 $101.45 −61% vs BLZE
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $196.75 $42.42 −78% vs BLZE
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $261.83 $37.97 −85% vs BLZE
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $390.46 $39.54 −90% vs BLZE

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$5.95 −35%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Backblaze Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BLZE

Frequently asked questions

Is Backblaze Inc (BLZE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.95 versus a price of $9.10, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BLZE?
Our model-based fair value for Backblaze Inc is $5.95 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.10.
What is the quality score of BLZE?
Backblaze Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.95 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.69, optimistic scenario $9.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Backblaze Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.95, about −35% upside versus a price of $9.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.69, optimistic scenario $9.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Backblaze Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $156M (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Backblaze Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +22.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.1 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BLZE use?
Our models discount Backblaze Inc at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Backblaze Inc that is +22.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Backblaze Inc (BLZE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Backblaze Inc grew +22.1 % a year. The price currently implies +22.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Backblaze Inc (BLZE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Backblaze Inc (+22.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.41 %: that much free cash flow Backblaze Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Backblaze Inc it is $5.95 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of $9.10. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Backblaze Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, BLZE trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.10, fair value $5.95, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BLZE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.95). For Backblaze Inc the two are $3.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Backblaze Inc worth?
The market values Backblaze Inc at about $553M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is $9.10; our models calculate a fair value of $5.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BLZE?
Our models span a range for Backblaze Inc: cautious scenario $3.69, base $5.95, optimistic $9.38 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price $9.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Backblaze Inc (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity −24.3%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BLZE from its 52-week high?
Backblaze Inc trades at $9.10, about 55% below its 52-week high of $20.43 and 175% above the low of $3.31 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Backblaze Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Backblaze Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price $9.10, calculated fair value $5.95 (−35%), Quality Score 47/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BLZE calculated?
We run Backblaze Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Backblaze Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was $9.10. Our model-based fair value is $5.95, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Backblaze Inc right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.69 to $9.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Backblaze Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The market capitalisation of Backblaze Inc is $553M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Backblaze Inc is 3.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Earnings per share at Backblaze Inc are $−0.3600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The net margin of Backblaze Inc is −13.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Backblaze Inc is −24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Backblaze Inc is −25.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
The operating margin of Backblaze Inc is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Backblaze Inc (BLZE)?
Revenue at Backblaze Inc is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Backblaze Inc (BLZE) carry?
The net debt of Backblaze Inc is $32.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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