Botnia Gold AB (BOTX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · SE · Market cap 473M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 102% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 16.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 16.63 to kr 34.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 5.06 – kr 15.85 · fair‑value band kr 16.63 – kr 34.90 · the kr 12.16 price screens below the kr 24.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Botnia Gold AB (BOTX) currently trades at kr 12.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 24.58, implying the stock looks roughly 102.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Botnia Gold AB generated revenue of 353M SEK at a net margin of 23.4%. It earns a return on equity of 42.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 55.1M SEK. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 16.63 (bear case) to kr 34.90 (bull case); at kr 12.16, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 102%, BOTX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 51.67) versus Asset-Based (kr 3.46). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Botnia Gold AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of precious and base metals in Sweden. Its project portfolio includes gold and sulphide ore projects with one environmental permit for mining, four exploration permits, and two processing concessions in the Vindelgransele area in Sweden.
Full company description
Botnia Gold AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of precious and base metals in Sweden. Its project portfolio includes gold and sulphide ore projects with one environmental permit for mining, four exploration permits, and two processing concessions in the Vindelgransele area in Sweden. The company was formerly known as Botnia Exploration Holding AB (publ) and changed its name to Botnia Gold AB (publ) in August 2025. Botnia Gold AB (publ) was founded in 2007 and is based in Vindelgransele, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Botnia Gold AB reported revenue of kr 245M in FY2025 versus kr 3.6M in FY2021, a compound +187.5%/yr. Reported net income was kr 49.0M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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