Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Botnia Gold AB (publ) SEK 31.02, price SEK 10.34, upside +200.0%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Botnia Gold AB (publ) for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
Botnia Gold AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of precious and base metals in Sweden. Its project portfolio includes gold and sulphide ore projects with one environmental permit for mining, four exploration permits, and two processing concessions in the Vindelgransele area in Sweden.
Show more
Botnia Gold AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of precious and base metals in Sweden. Its project portfolio includes gold and sulphide ore projects with one environmental permit for mining, four exploration permits, and two processing concessions in the Vindelgransele area in Sweden. The company was formerly known as Botnia Exploration Holding AB (publ) and changed its name to Botnia Gold AB (publ) in August 2025. Botnia Gold AB (publ) was founded in 2007 and is based in Vindelgransele, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX) currently trades at kr 10.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 31.02, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 51.67 per share, and 21 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 10.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 3.46, and 2 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 17.51 (bear) to kr 44.41 (bull), the price of kr 10.34 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Botnia Gold AB (publ) reported revenue of 245M SEK in FY2025 versus 3.6M SEK in FY2021, a compound +187.5%/yr. Reported net income was 49.0M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 473M SEK (≈ $47.7M) · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) kr 2.01 · Net margin 20.0% · Return on equity 42.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 25.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, BOTX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 17.51Fair Value kr 31.02Bull kr 44.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.48 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+323.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1,102.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+134.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +46.0% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−133.5% (2020) → 27.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Return on assets24% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)26% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth939% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Botnia Gold AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BOTX
Frequently asked questions
Is Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 31.02 versus a price of kr 10.34, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BOTX?
Our model-based fair value for Botnia Gold AB (publ) is kr 31.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 10.34.
What is the quality score of BOTX?
Botnia Gold AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 31.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 17.51, optimistic scenario kr 44.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Botnia Gold AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 31.02, about +200% upside versus a price of kr 10.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 17.51, optimistic scenario kr 44.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
Botnia Gold AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 353M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Botnia Gold AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by -22.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +134.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BOTX use?
Our models discount Botnia Gold AB (publ) at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Botnia Gold AB (publ) that is -22.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Botnia Gold AB (publ) grew +134.8 % a year. The price currently implies -22.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Botnia Gold AB (publ) (-22.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.05 %: that much free cash flow Botnia Gold AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Botnia Gold AB (publ) it is kr 31.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 10.34. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Botnia Gold AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BOTX trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 10.34, fair value kr 31.02, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BOTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 10.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 31.02). For Botnia Gold AB (publ) the two are kr 20.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Botnia Gold AB (publ) worth?
The market values Botnia Gold AB (publ) at about 473M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 10.34; our models calculate a fair value of kr 31.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BOTX?
Our models span a range for Botnia Gold AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 17.51, base kr 31.02, optimistic kr 44.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 10.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BOTX?
Botnia Gold AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 31.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Botnia Gold AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 42.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BOTX from its 52-week high?
Botnia Gold AB (publ) trades at kr 10.34, about 34% below its 52-week high of kr 15.75 and at the low of kr 10.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 31.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Botnia Gold AB (publ)?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Botnia Gold AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 10.34, calculated fair value kr 31.02 (+200%), Quality Score 69/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BOTX calculated?
We run Botnia Gold AB (publ) through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 31.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Botnia Gold AB (publ) currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 10.34. Our model-based fair value is kr 31.02, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Botnia Gold AB (publ) right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 17.51). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 17.51 to kr 44.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Botnia Gold AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
The market capitalisation of Botnia Gold AB (publ) is 473M SEK (≈ $47.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Botnia Gold AB (publ) is 1.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
Earnings per share at Botnia Gold AB (publ) are kr 2.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
The net margin of Botnia Gold AB (publ) is 20.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Botnia Gold AB (publ) is 42.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Botnia Gold AB (publ) is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
The operating margin of Botnia Gold AB (publ) is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
Revenue at Botnia Gold AB (publ) is growing +939% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,102%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX)?
Earnings per share at Botnia Gold AB (publ) are growing −15.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Botnia Gold AB (publ) (BOTX) hold?
Botnia Gold AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 55.1M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Botnia Gold AB (publ) in the live analysis
One click puts Botnia Gold AB (publ) on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
