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Botnia Gold AB (BOTX) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · SE · Market cap 473M SEK

BG Botnia Gold AB BOTX · ST
Pricekr 12.16
Fair Valuekr 24.58
Upside+102.1%
Quality69/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 23.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (12/13)
Wide moat 87/100
Evidence: High Range kr 16.63 – kr 34.90 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +2.2% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 102% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 16.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (kr 16.63 to kr 34.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 15.85 kr 5.06 Fair Value kr 24.58 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 5.06 – kr 15.85 · fair‑value band kr 16.63 – kr 34.90 · the kr 12.16 price screens below the kr 24.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Botnia Gold AB (BOTX) currently trades at kr 12.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 24.58, implying the stock looks roughly 102.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Botnia Gold AB generated revenue of 353M SEK at a net margin of 23.4%. It earns a return on equity of 42.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 55.1M SEK. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 16.63 (bear case) to kr 34.90 (bull case); at kr 12.16, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 102%, BOTX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF kr 30.76 kr 52.18 kr 85.84 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 17.37 kr 25.73 kr 43.54 74
ROIC Compounder kr 14.58 kr 20.54 kr 27.82 72
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 32.74 kr 47.18 kr 90.31 38
5Y Revenue Exit kr 16.10 kr 22.62 kr 35.92 39
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 24.05 kr 38.68 kr 67.25 41
5Y P/E Exit kr 21.99 kr 42.18 kr 68.80 38
10Y Revenue Exit kr 21.56 kr 35.87 kr 42.04 36
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 27.10 kr 51.48 kr 91.79 37
10Y P/E Exit kr 25.73 kr 47.45 kr 81.10 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 8.16 kr 56.90 kr 79.85 54
Lynch FV kr 29.40 kr 41.99 kr 54.59 50
PEG = 1.0 kr 29.40 kr 41.99 kr 54.59 46
EPV kr 11.74 kr 13.16 kr 14.34 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 15.30 kr 20.40 kr 25.50 63
P/S Multiple kr 6.76 kr 9.01 kr 11.26 58
P/B Multiple kr 11.62 kr 15.50 kr 19.37 55
EV/EBIT kr 18.46 kr 24.17 kr 29.87 53
EV/EBITDA kr 19.62 kr 25.71 kr 31.80 54
EV/Revenue kr 7.66 kr 10.36 kr 13.06 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 2.58 kr 3.46 kr 5.17 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 30.76 kr 52.18 kr 85.84 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 17.37 kr 25.73 kr 43.54 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 6.89 kr 9.25 kr 38.30 61
ROIC Compounder kr 14.58 kr 20.54 kr 27.82 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 36.17 kr 51.67 kr 67.17 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 51.67) versus Asset-Based (kr 3.46). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 353M SEK
Revenue growth (YoY) +939%
Net margin 23.4%
Return on equity 42.7%
Free cash flow 94.1M SEK FY2025
P/E ratio 5.8
More key figures
Operating margin 25.6%
EPS (TTM) kr 2.01
EPS growth (YoY) -15.7%
Net cash 55.1M SEK FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 10
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 34
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Botnia Gold AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of precious and base metals in Sweden. Its project portfolio includes gold and sulphide ore projects with one environmental permit for mining, four exploration permits, and two processing concessions in the Vindelgransele area in Sweden.

Full company description

Botnia Gold AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of precious and base metals in Sweden. Its project portfolio includes gold and sulphide ore projects with one environmental permit for mining, four exploration permits, and two processing concessions in the Vindelgransele area in Sweden. The company was formerly known as Botnia Exploration Holding AB (publ) and changed its name to Botnia Gold AB (publ) in August 2025. Botnia Gold AB (publ) was founded in 2007 and is based in Vindelgransele, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Botnia Gold AB reported revenue of kr 245M in FY2025 versus kr 3.6M in FY2021, a compound +187.5%/yr. Reported net income was kr 49.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
245M SEK
Latest YoY
+323.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1,102.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+134.8%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+45.5%
Revenue +187.5%/yr
FY21 kr 3.6M
FY22 kr 141K
FY23 kr 213K
FY24 kr 57.8M
FY25 kr 245M
Net income
FY21 −kr 5.7M
FY22 −kr 7.6M
FY23 −kr 7.3M
FY24 kr 22.3M
FY25 kr 49.0M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Botnia Gold AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BOTX

Peer Group

Gold · 259 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +102% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Return on assets 24% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 23% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 26% · Above median
Revenue growth 939% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.25× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.34× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 100
PAST 100 · sector 0
HEALTH 99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 24

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $112.00 $132.73 +19%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.36 ¥30.58 +8%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$191.93 C$154.33 -20%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $34.93 $50.66 +45%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$152.57 C$52.47 -66%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV C$284.75 C$97.76 -66%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $76.35 $88.63 +16%
Gold Fields Limited GFI $33.33 $59.06 +77%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.57 $34.62 +53%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$20.48 A$15.98 -22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Botnia Gold AB (BOTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 24.58 versus a price of kr 12.16, about +102% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BOTX?
Our model-based fair value for Botnia Gold AB is kr 24.58 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is kr 12.16.
What is the quality score of BOTX?
Botnia Gold AB has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Botnia Gold AB (BOTX)?
Botnia Gold AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 353M SEK (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BOTX?
The net profit margin of Botnia Gold AB is about 23.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 23.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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