BlueScope Steel Limited (BSL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$14.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from A$3.25 to A$6.50 (+100.0%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +11.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 81% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$8.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$13.05 – A$35.11 · fair‑value band A$4.88 – A$8.12 · the A$35.11 price screens above the A$6.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
BlueScope Steel Limited (BSL) currently trades at A$35.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$6.50, implying the stock looks roughly 81.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BlueScope Steel Limited generated revenue of A$16.6B at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at A$28.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$4.88 (bear case) to A$8.12 (bull case); at A$35.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -81%, BSL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$8.12) versus Earnings-Based (A$0.5425). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BlueScope Steel Limited engages in the production and marketing of metal-coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and North America.
Full company description
BlueScope Steel Limited engages in the production and marketing of metal-coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and North America. The company operates through five segments: Australian Steel Products, North Star BlueScope Steel, Buildings and Coated Products North America, Coated Products Asia, and New Zealand & Pacific Islands. It offers coated and painted flat steel products, including zinc/aluminium alloy coated steel; and galvanized and zinc/aluminium alloy coated pre-painted steel, as well as manufactures pipes and tubes. The company is also involved in the supply of hot rolled coils; the provision of engineered building solutions, such as coil paintings; and the development of industrial properties, primarily warehouses and distribution centres. In addition, it provides metal coating, painting, and steel building solutions; and steel slabs, billets, plates, cold-rolled coils, reinforcing coils, rods, wires, and bars, as well as value-added coated and painted steel solutions, as well as operates ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal recyclers. Further, the company offers its products under the COLORBOND, COLORSTEEL, TRUECORE, ZINCALUME, TRU-SPEC, LYSAGHT, FIELDERS, Orrcon Steel, BUTLER, and VARCO PRUDEN brand names for residential and non-residential building, construction, automotive, manufacturing, infrastructure, packaging, transport, agriculture, and mining industries. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as BHP Steel Limited and changed its name to BlueScope Steel Limited in November 2003. BlueScope Steel Limited was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BlueScope Steel Limited reported revenue of A$16.3B in FY2025 versus A$12.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$83.8M in FY2025, compounding −48.5%/yr from FY2021.
BSL screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 381 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| SSAB AB SSABA | kr 96.04 | kr 72.43 | -25% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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