Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bluescope Steel Ltd stock A$23.60, price A$31.41, that is 24.9% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$13.05 – A$35.23 · fair‑value band A$16.56 – A$35.63 · the A$31.41 price screens above the A$23.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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BlueScope Steel Limited engages in the production and marketing of metal-coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and North America.
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The company operates through five segments: Australian Steel Products, North Star BlueScope Steel, Buildings and Coated Products North America, Coated Products Asia, and New Zealand & Pacific Islands.
It offers coated and painted flat steel products, including zinc/aluminium alloy coated steel; and galvanized and zinc/aluminium alloy coated pre-painted steel, as well as manufactures pipes and tubes.
The company is also involved in the supply of hot rolled coils; the provision of engineered building solutions, such as coil paintings; and the development of industrial properties, primarily warehouses and distribution centres.
In addition, it provides metal coating, painting, and steel building solutions; and steel slabs, billets, plates, cold-rolled coils, reinforcing coils, rods, wires, and bars, as well as value-added coated and painted steel solutions, as well as operates ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal recyclers.
Further, the company offers its products under the COLORBOND, COLORSTEEL, TRUECORE, ZINCALUME, TRU-SPEC, LYSAGHT, FIELDERS, Orrcon Steel, BUTLER, and VARCO PRUDEN brand names for residential and non-residential building, construction, automotive, manufacturing, infrastructure, packaging, transport, agriculture, and mining industries.
It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as BHP Steel Limited and changed its name to BlueScope Steel Limited in November 2003. BlueScope Steel Limited was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) currently trades at A$31.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$23.60, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$30.67 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the A$31.41 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$10.44, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$16.56 (bear) to A$35.63 (bull), the price of A$31.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bluescope Steel Ltd reported revenue of A$16.7B in FY2026 versus A$19.0B in FY2022, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$802M in FY2026, compounding −26.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$13.9B (≈ $9.6B) Mid · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) A$1.81 · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −25%, BSL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$16.56Fair Value A$23.60BullA$35.63
Price A$31.41 · Downside -24.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.0% vs 6.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.2% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (68 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Secured long-term iron supply via the completed blast furnace reline forms the main strength, while persistently low returns on capital in a commoditized cyclical sector remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Shifting customer preferences for lower embodied carbon materials and competitor decarbonisation efforts could lead to increased product substitution and reduced demand or sales for BlueScope's steel products.
Bull case: BlueScope could leverage its decarbonisation investments and coated product differentiation to meet rising low-carbon demand and maintain margins despite import pressure.
Bear case: Persistent cheap imports combined with faster competitor decarbonisation could erode BlueScope's domestic market share and force sustained margin compression in its core steel operations.
BlueScope is finishing the reline of its Port Kembla No.6 blast furnace to lock in iron supply for years while creating a bridge to lower-emission ironmaking. The project forms part of a larger multi-year investment program that supports traditional steel operations even as the industry faces decarbonization pressure. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the completed assets deliver lasting cost and resilience gains, or will they add to the capital burden without enough earnings lift?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 407 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−24.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.1% · Above median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$23.60 versus a price of A$31.41, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BSL?
Our model-based fair value for Bluescope Steel Ltd is A$23.60 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$31.41.
What is the quality score of BSL?
Bluescope Steel Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$23.60 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$16.56, optimistic scenario A$35.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bluescope Steel Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$23.60, about 25% lower versus a price of A$31.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$16.56, optimistic scenario A$35.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
Bluescope Steel Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$16.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Bluescope Steel Ltd pay a dividend?
Bluescope Steel Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 6.21% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bluescope Steel Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +28.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BSL use?
Our models discount Bluescope Steel Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.17, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bluescope Steel Ltd that is +28.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bluescope Steel Ltd grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies +28.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bluescope Steel Ltd (+28.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.86 %: that much free cash flow Bluescope Steel Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bluescope Steel Ltd it is A$23.60 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$31.41. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bluescope Steel Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, BSL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$31.41, fair value A$23.60, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BSL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$31.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$23.60). For Bluescope Steel Ltd the two are A$7.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bluescope Steel Ltd worth?
The market values Bluescope Steel Ltd at about A$13.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$31.41; our models calculate a fair value of A$23.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BSL?
Our models span a range for Bluescope Steel Ltd: cautious scenario A$16.56, base A$23.60, optimistic A$35.63 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$31.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BSL?
Bluescope Steel Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$23.60 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 10.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.0, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BSL?
The PEG ratio of Bluescope Steel Ltd is 0.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bluescope Steel Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BSL from its 52-week high?
Bluescope Steel Ltd trades at A$31.41, about 11% below its 52-week high of A$35.23 and 51% above the low of A$20.77 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$23.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bluescope Steel Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bluescope Steel Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$31.41, calculated fair value A$23.60 (−25%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BSL calculated?
We run Bluescope Steel Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$23.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Bluescope Steel Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$31.41. Our model-based fair value is A$23.60, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bluescope Steel Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$16.56 to A$35.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) come from?
Earnings per share at Bluescope Steel Ltd grew +5.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.9 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bluescope Steel Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
The market capitalisation of Bluescope Steel Ltd is A$13.9B (≈ $9.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bluescope Steel Ltd is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
Earnings per share at Bluescope Steel Ltd are A$1.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
The dividend yield of Bluescope Steel Ltd is 6.2% (payout 108%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
The net margin of Bluescope Steel Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bluescope Steel Ltd is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bluescope Steel Ltd is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
The operating margin of Bluescope Steel Ltd is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
Revenue at Bluescope Steel Ltd is growing +0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL)?
Earnings per share at Bluescope Steel Ltd are growing +119% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) carry?
The net debt of Bluescope Steel Ltd is A$600M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026