PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk IDR 690, price IDR 2,320, upside -70.3%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,861 IDR – 2,686 IDR · fair‑value band 517.29 IDR – 862.14 IDR · the 2,320 IDR price screens above the 689.72 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk provides various banking products and services primarily in Indonesia. It operates through six segments: Retail; Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises; Funding and Treasury; Corporate; Sharia; and Financing. The company offers current, savings, time deposits and demand deposit accounts.
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PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk provides various banking products and services primarily in Indonesia. It operates through six segments: Retail; Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises; Funding and Treasury; Corporate; Sharia; and Financing. The company offers current, savings, time deposits and demand deposit accounts. It offers loan products, including officer and employee, term installment, term, pension, retirement, active employee, collateral and non-collateral, overdraft, syndication, and sustainable finance, as well as short-, medium-, and long-term loans; working capital and investment credit; and project finance. It also provides transaction banking, including remittance, tax payment, trade finance, cash management, custody and securities, and supply chain financing services. In addition, the company offers services related to investment products & bancassurance, such as mutual funds, government bonds, and insurance products, as well as treasury solution and financial markets solutions. The company was formerly known as PT Bank BTPN Tbk and changed its name to PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk in October 2024. PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is a subsidiary of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.
Stock analysis
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) currently trades at 2,320 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 689.72 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 236.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 2,986 IDR per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the 2,320 IDR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 617.35 IDR, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 517.29 IDR (bear) to 862.14 IDR (bull), the price of 2,320 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 27.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 15.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +14.5%/yr. Reported net income was 506B IDR in FY2025, compounding −34.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 24.7T IDR (≈ $2.5B) · P/E ratio 55.3 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) 41.96 IDR · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity −0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −70%, BTPN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 517.29 IDRFair Value 689.72 IDRBull 862.14 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (23.75 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−31.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−32% vs −17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.3% a year for the price.
Compare PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−70% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)55.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.52× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.37× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA47.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.41× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)2· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTPN
Frequently asked questions
Is PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 689.72 IDR versus a price of 2,320 IDR, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BTPN?
Our model-based fair value for PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 689.72 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,320 IDR.
What is the quality score of BTPN?
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 689.72 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 517.29 IDR, optimistic scenario 862.14 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 689.72 IDR, about −70% upside versus a price of 2,320 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 517.29 IDR, optimistic scenario 862.14 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk pay a dividend?
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BTPN use?
Our models discount PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk that is -2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies -2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (-2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.86 %: that much free cash flow PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk it is 689.72 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2,320 IDR. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BTPN trades above its calculated fair value: price 2,320 IDR, fair value 689.72 IDR, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BTPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,320 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (689.72 IDR). For PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk the two are 1,630 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk at about 24.7T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2,320 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 689.72 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTPN?
Our models span a range for PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 517.29 IDR, base 689.72 IDR, optimistic 862.14 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2,320 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BTPN?
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 55.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 689.72 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.5, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 47.1.
What is the PEG ratio of BTPN?
The PEG ratio of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 0.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.3%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BTPN from its 52-week high?
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk trades at 2,320 IDR, about 7% below its 52-week high of 2,500 IDR and 21% above the low of 1,921 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 689.72 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2,320 IDR, calculated fair value 689.72 IDR (−70%), Quality Score 36/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BTPN calculated?
We run PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 689.72 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 2,320 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 689.72 IDR, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (862.14 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) come from?
Earnings per share at PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk grew −4.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.3 %, EBIT margin −5.9 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
The market capitalisation of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 24.7T IDR (≈ $2.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 1.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
Earnings per share at PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk are 41.96 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 55.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
The dividend yield of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 0.4% (payout 22.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
The net margin of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
The operating margin of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
Revenue at PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN)?
Earnings per share at PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk are growing −10.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) carry?
The net debt of PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is 32.9T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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