PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · ID · Market cap 23.8T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −0.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (771.68 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,861 IDR – 2,742 IDR · fair‑value band 463.01 IDR – 771.68 IDR · the 2,160 IDR price screens above the 617.35 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN) currently trades at 2,160 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 617.35 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 71.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk generated revenue of 10.4T IDR at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.3%. Net debt stands at 32.9T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 463.01 IDR (bear case) to 771.68 IDR (bull case); at 2,160 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -71%, BTPN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (2,986 IDR) versus Multiples (617.35 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk provides various banking products and services primarily in Indonesia. It operates through six segments: Retail; Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises; Funding and Treasury; Corporate; Sharia; and Financing. The company offers current, savings, time deposits and demand deposit accounts.
Full company description
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk provides various banking products and services primarily in Indonesia. It operates through six segments: Retail; Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises; Funding and Treasury; Corporate; Sharia; and Financing. The company offers current, savings, time deposits and demand deposit accounts. It offers loan products, including officer and employee, term installment, term, pension, retirement, active employee, collateral and non-collateral, overdraft, syndication, and sustainable finance, as well as short-, medium-, and long-term loans; working capital and investment credit; and project finance. It also provides transaction banking, including remittance, tax payment, trade finance, cash management, custody and securities, and supply chain financing services. In addition, the company offers services related to investment products & bancassurance, such as mutual funds, government bonds, and insurance products, as well as treasury solution and financial markets solutions. The company was formerly known as PT Bank BTPN Tbk and changed its name to PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk in October 2024. PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk is a subsidiary of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 27.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 15.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +14.5%/yr. Reported net income was 506B IDR in FY2025, compounding −34.0%/yr from FY2021.
BTPN screens 71% overvalued. Compare with KB Financial Group →
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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