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Data-driven stock valuation

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 27, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. stock $22.11, price $31.91, upside -30.7%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US

TB The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. logo Thin data Oct 28, 2026

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.

BWIN · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

Our calculation puts a fair price 31% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +45.4 %/yr in USD)
Fair value $22.11 · Overvalued (−30.7%)
Quality 32/100
Loss-making · -4.7% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$55.29 $16.50 Fair Value $22.11 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $16.50 – $55.29 · fair‑value band $4.42 – $63.23 · the $31.91 price screens above the $22.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 28, 2026.

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Company profile

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. operates as an independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions in the United States.

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The company operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions; Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions; and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions.

Its Insurance Advisory Solutions segment provides private risk management, commercial risk management, employee benefits, and Medicare insurance solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals, as well as their families.

The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment offers MGA platform, that manufactures technology-enabled insurance product suite comprises personal, commercial, and professional lines.

Its Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment provides personal insurance, commercial insurance, and life and health solutions to individuals and businesses in communities, as well as offers reinsurance brokerage; and consultation for government assistance programs and solutions, including traditional Medicare and Medicare advantage and affordable care act to seniors and eligible individuals through a network of primarily independent contractor agents.

The company was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. in May 2024. The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

Stock analysis

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) currently trades at $31.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.11, 30.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $4.42 (bear) to $63.23 (bull), the price of $31.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $560M in FY2021, a compound +28.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$33.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $4.5B Mid · P/S ratio 2.59 · EPS (TTM) $−1.04 · Net margin −4.7% · Return on equity −10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin 2.0% · Revenue (TTM) $1.7B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −31%, BWIN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.42 Fair Value $22.11 Bull $63.23
Price $31.91 · Upside -30.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings $1.46 $22.11 $63.23 63
EV/EBITDA $1.35 $7.43 $13.50 60
EV/Revenue n/a n/a $2.06 50
All 3 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $1.46 $22.11 $63.23 63
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $1.35 $7.43 $13.50 60
EV/Revenue n/a n/a $2.06 50

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 10
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 12
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 11
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 93
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 33
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 73
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 85
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 49
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.5% (2020) → 7.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BWIN screens overvalued: fair value 31% below the price. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Going private ends public reporting and lets eligible colleagues retain equity, yet this structure risks reducing the external pressure that previously drove disciplined growth in insurance brokerage.
Main risk: Reduced external pressure after ending public reporting could slow operational improvements and disciplined growth in the insurance brokerage business.
Baldwin has agreed to go private in a majority investment led by Sequence Holdings and DFO Management. The shift ends public reporting requirements and lets eligible colleagues retain equity in the private entity. Will the new ownership structure accelerate operational improvements in insurance brokerage, or will it reduce external pressure that previously drove disciplined growth?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 39 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −30.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −4.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 2.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 30.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.79× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 7.50× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 2.59× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 51.9× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 41
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 51
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 79
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 68

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Accelerant Holdings ARX $19.82 $39.64 +100% vs BWIN
Steadfast Group SDF A$5.81 A$3.15 −46% vs BWIN
Brown & Brown, Inc BRO $72.97 $35.14 −52% vs BWIN
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW $317.62 $145.43 −54% vs BWIN
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH $194.72 $78.33 −60% vs BWIN
Aon plc AON $302.06 $119.87 −60% vs BWIN
Erie Indemnity Company ERIE $253.52 $100.27 −60% vs BWIN
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG $266.79 $75.76 −72% vs BWIN
PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR ₹1,038 ₹137.52 −87% vs BWIN
Ryan Specialty Holdings RYAN $43.68 $5.22 −88% vs BWIN

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The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. · Fair Value
$22.11 −31%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BWIN

Frequently asked questions

Is The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.11 versus a price of $31.91, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BWIN?
Our model-based fair value for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is $22.11 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.91.
What is the quality score of BWIN?
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.11 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.42, optimistic scenario $63.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.11, about −31% upside versus a price of $31.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.42, optimistic scenario $63.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. it is $22.11 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of $31.91. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, BWIN trades above its calculated fair value: price $31.91, fair value $22.11, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BWIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.11). For The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. the two are $9.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. worth?
The market values The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is $31.91; our models calculate a fair value of $22.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BWIN?
Our models span a range for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $4.42, base $22.11, optimistic $63.23 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price $31.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity −10.7%, debt of 2.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BWIN from its 52-week high?
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. trades at $31.91, about 2% below its 52-week high of $32.49 and 93% above the low of $16.50 (as of Oct 27, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price $31.91, calculated fair value $22.11 (−31%), Quality Score 32/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BWIN calculated?
We run The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
The closing price on Oct 27, 2026 was $31.91. Our model-based fair value is $22.11, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. right now?
Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($4.42 to $63.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
The market capitalisation of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is 2.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
Earnings per share at The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. are $−1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
The net margin of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is −4.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is −10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
The operating margin of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
Revenue at The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is growing +30.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)?
Earnings per share at The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. are growing −90.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) generate?
The free cash flow of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is −$68.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) carry?
The net debt of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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