Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. BRL 9.21, price BRL 8.41, upside +9.5%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$2.68 – R$19.96 · fair‑value band R$5.41 – R$11.72 · the R$8.41 price screens below the R$9.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides.
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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised. The company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Stock analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34) currently trades at R$8.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$9.21, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$6.97 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$8.41 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$2.76, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$5.41 (bear) to R$11.72 (bull), the price of R$8.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reported revenue of $11.9B in FY2025 versus $7.5B in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +23.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$231B (≈ $44.2B) · P/E ratio 30.0 · P/S ratio 3.87 · EPS (TTM) R$0.2800 · Net margin 12.9% · Return on equity 49.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.2% · Operating margin 13.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 9%, C1MG34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$5.41Fair Value R$9.21Bull R$11.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.2117 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−37.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−37.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 16%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 46.1%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+6.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)49.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/C1MG34
Frequently asked questions
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$9.21 versus a price of R$8.41, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of C1MG34?
Our model-based fair value for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is R$9.21 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$8.41.
What is the quality score of C1MG34?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$9.21 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$5.41, optimistic scenario R$11.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$9.21, about +9% upside versus a price of R$8.41 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$5.41, optimistic scenario R$11.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. it is R$9.21 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$8.41. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, C1MG34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$8.41, fair value R$9.21, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of C1MG34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$8.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$9.21). For Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. the two are R$0.7970 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. worth?
The market values Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. at about R$231B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$8.41; our models calculate a fair value of R$9.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about C1MG34?
Our models span a range for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: cautious scenario R$5.41, base R$9.21, optimistic R$11.72 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$8.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of C1MG34?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$9.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of C1MG34?
The PEG ratio of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is 1.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 49.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is C1MG34 from its 52-week high?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. trades at R$8.41, about 27% below its 52-week high of R$11.58 and 16% above the low of R$7.27 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$9.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$8.41, calculated fair value R$9.21 (+9%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of C1MG34 calculated?
We run Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$9.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$8.41. Our model-based fair value is R$9.21, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R$5.41 to R$11.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
The market capitalisation of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is R$231B (≈ $44.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is 3.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
Earnings per share at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. are R$0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
The net margin of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is 12.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is 49.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is 18.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
The operating margin of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
Revenue at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is growing +7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34)?
Earnings per share at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. are growing −17.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (C1MG34) generate?
The free cash flow of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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