Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. BRL 43.04, price BRL 112, upside -61.5%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range R$29.84 – R$118.20 · fair‑value band R$20.97 – R$71.70 · the R$111.76 price screens above the R$43.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.
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Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademarked beverages in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas and flavored sparkling beverages; waters; and other non-carbonated beverages, including tea, sports drinks, energy drinks, fruit-based beverages, juice, coffee, milk, value-added dairy, and plant-based drinks. It also distributes and sells beer products under the Heineken, Estrella Galicia, and Therezópolis brands; alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages, such as Bacardí Coca-Cola and Topo Chico Hard Seltzer; and Monster products. The company sells its products to distributors, retail outlets, wholesale supermarkets, discount and convenience stores, retailers, points-of-sale outlets, restaurants and bars, stadiums, auditoriums, theaters, and home deliveries. Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34) currently trades at R$111.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$43.04, 61.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$61.17 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$111.76 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$13.39, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$20.97 (bear) to R$71.70 (bull), the price of R$111.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of 292B MXN in FY2025 versus 227B MXN in FY2022, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was 23.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$235B (≈ $45.0B) · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) R$−0.2300 · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4% · Operating margin 12.8% · Revenue (TTM) 293B MXN.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −61%, C2CA34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$20.97Fair Value R$43.04Bull R$71.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.4% (2022) → 14.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in MXN, Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.7% a year for the price.
Compare Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−14.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.8% · Above median
Return on assets7.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)12.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)73.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/C2CA34
Frequently asked questions
Is Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$43.04 versus a price of R$111.76, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of C2CA34?
Our model-based fair value for Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is R$43.04 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$111.76.
What is the quality score of C2CA34?
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$43.04 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$20.97, optimistic scenario R$71.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$43.04, about −61% upside versus a price of R$111.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$20.97, optimistic scenario R$71.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 293B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +49.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of C2CA34 use?
Our models discount Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. that is +49.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +49.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (+49.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.86 %: that much free cash flow Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. it is R$43.04 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$111.76. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, C2CA34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$111.76, fair value R$43.04, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of C2CA34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$111.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$43.04). For Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. the two are R$68.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. worth?
The market values Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. at about R$235B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$111.76; our models calculate a fair value of R$43.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about C2CA34?
Our models span a range for Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.: cautious scenario R$20.97, base R$43.04, optimistic R$71.70 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$111.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of C2CA34?
The PEG ratio of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is 44.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 15.8%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is C2CA34 from its 52-week high?
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. trades at R$111.76, about 5% below its 52-week high of R$118.20 and 33% above the low of R$84.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$43.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$111.76, calculated fair value R$43.04 (−61%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of C2CA34 calculated?
We run Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$43.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$111.76. Our model-based fair value is R$43.04, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$71.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (R$20.97 to R$71.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
The market capitalisation of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is R$235B (≈ $45.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is 0.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
Earnings per share at Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. are R$−0.2300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
The net margin of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is 12.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
The operating margin of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
Revenue at Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34)?
Earnings per share at Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. are growing −15.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (C2CA34) carry?
The net debt of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is 53.3B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026