Celsius Holdings (CELH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $7.8B
Celsius Holdings
CELH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $13.70 to $8.87 (−35.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −9.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.50 – $96.11 · fair‑value band $8.42 – $11.09 · the $27.77 price screens above the $8.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Celsius Holdings (CELH) currently trades at $27.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.87, implying the stock looks roughly 68.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Celsius Holdings generated revenue of $3.0B at a net margin of 5.9%. Revenue grew 137.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.1%. Net debt stands at $271M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.42 (bear case) to $11.09 (bull case); at $27.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -68%, CELH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($25.60) versus Dividend Discount ($2.22). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Celsius Holdings, Inc. develops, processes, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes functional energy drinks in the United States, North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.
Full company description
Celsius Holdings, Inc. develops, processes, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes functional energy drinks in the United States, North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers CELSIUS ESSENTIALS, a functional energy drink formulated with aminos; and CELSIUS Hydration, a line of zero-sugar hydration powders featuring electrolytes in various fruit-forward flavors, as well as ready-to-drink energy beverages, on-the-go powder and hydration sticks, and nutrition and wellness products under CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar brand names. It distributes its products through direct-to-store delivery, independent distributors, supermarkets, convenience stores, drug stores, nutritional stores, food service providers, and mass merchants, as well as natural food stores, fitness centers, mass market retailers, vitamin specialty stores, club stores, gyms, and e-commerce platforms. The company was formerly known as Vector Ventures, Inc. and changed its name to Celsius Holdings, Inc. in January 2007. Celsius Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Celsius Holdings reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $314M in FY2021, a compound +68.2%/yr. Reported net income was $108M in FY2025, compounding +128.9%/yr from FY2021.
CELH screens 68% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Celsius shares fall as quarterly numbers miss expectations
- Celsius Holdings Q2 2026 earnings miss as Celsius brand sales fall
- Celsius Holdings (CELH) Q2 Earnings Put Its Recovery Narrative And Valuation In Focus
- Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates
Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 91 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $87.05 | $36.57 | -58% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $139.02 | $106.91 | -23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $97.50 | $35.82 | -63% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$41.44 | HK$30.72 | -26% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €85.41 | -7% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP | $31.25 | $30.99 | -1% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $102.04 | $106.45 | +4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €57.90 | €52.82 | -9% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹495.70 | ₹187.49 | -62% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥124.43 | ¥107.57 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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