Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd stock A$0.83, price A$0.89, that is 6.2% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3594 – A$1.15 · fair‑value band A$0.5100 – A$1.15 · the A$0.8850 price screens above the A$0.8300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments.
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The Wagering and Media segment offers totalisator and fixed odds betting on racing, sports, and other events through a network of TAB agencies, hotels and clubs, and on-course operations, as well as through retail, Internet, mobile devices, and phone.
It also provides Trackside, a computer simulate racing product; and international wagering and pooling services.
In addition, the company engages in the Sky Racing television channels broadcasting thoroughbred, and harness and greyhound racing to audiences; Sky Racing Active, a digital app providing Sky Racing's live and on-demand racing content across thoroughbred, and harness and greyhound racing; Sky Sports television channels; and Sky Sports Radio network.
The Integrity Services segment provides electronic gaming machine (EGM) monitoring and related services; and provides products, technology, support, maintenance, and other gaming services. It offers its services under the TAB, Sky Racing, and MAX brands.
The company was founded in 1961 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) currently trades at A$0.8850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.8300, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$1.00 per share, and 9 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$0.8850 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.2350, and 13 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.5100 (bear) to A$1.15 (bull), the price of A$0.8850 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2026: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2026.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$2.2B in FY2026 versus A$2.0B in FY2022, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$46.3M in FY2026, compounding −71.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.1B (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 44.3 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0200 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −6%, TAH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.5100Fair Value A$0.8300BullA$1.15
Price A$0.8850 · Downside -6.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2026: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2026.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−55.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−58.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−58.5% vs −24.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.2% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (35 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 48 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−6.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.7% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)44.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.66× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.79× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.2× · Cheaper than median
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Is Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.8300 versus a price of A$0.8850, about 6% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TAH?
Our model-based fair value for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is A$0.8300 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.8850.
What is the quality score of TAH?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.8300 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.5100, optimistic scenario A$1.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tabcorp Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.8300, about 6% lower versus a price of A$0.8850 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.5100, optimistic scenario A$1.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Tabcorp Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.39% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.03 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1995. The payout ratio is 150% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.30 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tabcorp Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.1 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TAH use?
Our models discount Tabcorp Holdings Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tabcorp Holdings Ltd that is +6.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd grew +0.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (+6.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.59 %: that much free cash flow Tabcorp Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tabcorp Holdings Ltd it is A$0.8300 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of A$0.8850. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tabcorp Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, TAH trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.8850, fair value A$0.8300, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.8850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.8300). For Tabcorp Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.0550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tabcorp Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Tabcorp Holdings Ltd at about A$2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is A$0.8850; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.8300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TAH?
Our models span a range for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.5100, base A$0.8300, optimistic A$1.15 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price A$0.8850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TAH?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.3 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.8300 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2026), reported earnings: 37.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
What is the PEG ratio of TAH?
The PEG ratio of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TAH from its 52-week high?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd trades at A$0.8850, about 23% below its 52-week high of A$1.15 and 33% above the low of A$0.6640 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.8300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tabcorp Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tabcorp Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price A$0.8850, calculated fair value A$0.8300 (−6%), Quality Score 47/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAH calculated?
We run Tabcorp Holdings Ltd through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.8300 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tabcorp Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$0.8850. Our model-based fair value is A$0.8300, about 6% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tabcorp Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$0.5100 to A$1.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) come from?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd grew −24.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −9.1 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate −7.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The market capitalisation of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is A$2.1B (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 0.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd are A$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The dividend yield of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 3.4% (payout 150%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The net margin of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The operating margin of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Revenue at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd are growing +123% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) carry?
The net debt of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is A$526M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 11, 2026