Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd A$0.60, price A$0.90, upside -33.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3654 – A$1.17 · fair‑value band A$0.3900 – A$0.8600 · the A$0.8950 price screens above the A$0.6000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments.
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments. The Wagering and Media segment offers totalisator and fixed odds betting on racing, sports, and other events through a network of TAB agencies, hotels and clubs, and on-course operations, as well as through retail, Internet, mobile devices, and phone. It also provides Trackside, a computer simulate racing product; and international wagering and pooling services. In addition, the company engages in the Sky Racing television channels broadcasting thoroughbred, and harness and greyhound racing to audiences; Sky Racing Active, a digital app providing Sky Racing's live and on-demand racing content across thoroughbred, and harness and greyhound racing; Sky Sports television channels; and Sky Sports Radio network. The Integrity Services segment provides electronic gaming machine (EGM) monitoring and related services; and provides products, technology, support, maintenance, and other gaming services. It offers its services under the TAB, Sky Racing, and MAX brands. The company was founded in 1961 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) currently trades at A$0.8950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6000, implying the stock looks roughly 49.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$0.9700 per share, and 10 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$0.8950 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.1900, and 12 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.3900 (bear) to A$0.8600 (bull), the price of A$0.8950 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$2.6B in FY2025 versus A$2.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$36.6M in FY2025, compounding −39.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.0B (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 89.5 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at −33%, TAH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.3900Fair Value A$0.6000Bull A$0.8600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−33.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−36.1% vs −22.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.0% a year for the price and −0.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−33.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)89.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.63× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF7.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.65× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)5· sector 5
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)56· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.6000 versus a price of A$0.8950, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TAH?
Our model-based fair value for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is A$0.6000 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.8950.
What is the quality score of TAH?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.6000 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3900, optimistic scenario A$0.8600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tabcorp Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.6000, about −33% upside versus a price of A$0.8950 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3900, optimistic scenario A$0.8600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Tabcorp Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tabcorp Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TAH use?
Our models discount Tabcorp Holdings Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tabcorp Holdings Ltd that is -4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd grew -4.1 % a year. The price currently implies -4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (-4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.12 %: that much free cash flow Tabcorp Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tabcorp Holdings Ltd it is A$0.6000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.8950. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tabcorp Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TAH trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.8950, fair value A$0.6000, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.8950); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.6000). For Tabcorp Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.2950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tabcorp Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Tabcorp Holdings Ltd at about A$2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.8950; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.6000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TAH?
Our models span a range for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.3900, base A$0.6000, optimistic A$0.8600 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.8950). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TAH?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 89.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.6000 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TAH?
The PEG ratio of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.6%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TAH from its 52-week high?
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd trades at A$0.8950, about 23% below its 52-week high of A$1.17 and 33% above the low of A$0.6750 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.6000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tabcorp Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tabcorp Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.8950, calculated fair value A$0.6000 (−33%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAH calculated?
We run Tabcorp Holdings Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.6000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tabcorp Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$0.8950. Our model-based fair value is A$0.6000, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tabcorp Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.8600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.3900 to A$0.8600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) come from?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd grew −23.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −10.0 %, EBIT margin −10.0 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The market capitalisation of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is A$2.0B (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 89.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The dividend yield of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 2.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The net margin of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
The operating margin of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Revenue at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Ltd are growing −18.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH) carry?
The net debt of Tabcorp Holdings Ltd is A$626M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026