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Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Central Asia Metals plc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 13, 2026
Some data
Sep 13, 2026
Central Asia Metals plc
CAMLF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $5.51 · Strongly undervalued (+156%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -32.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·7.53% dividend yield
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.53 – $3.17 · fair‑value band $3.78 – $9.27 · the $2.15 price screens below the $5.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Central Asia Metals plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a base metals producer. The company produces copper, zinc, silver, and lead minerals. It also owns a 100% interest in the Kounrad solvent extraction-electrowinning operation located near the city of Balkhash in central Kazakhstan; and in the Sasa mine located in north Macedonia.
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Central Asia Metals plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a base metals producer. The company produces copper, zinc, silver, and lead minerals. It also owns a 100% interest in the Kounrad solvent extraction-electrowinning operation located near the city of Balkhash in central Kazakhstan; and in the Sasa mine located in north Macedonia. Central Asia Metals plc was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF) currently trades at $2.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.51, implying the stock looks roughly 61.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $7.52 per share, and 14 of the 15 models we run sit above the $2.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.12, and 1 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.78 (bear) to $9.27 (bull), the price of $2.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Central Asia Metals plc reported revenue of $235M in FY2025 versus $223M in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$76.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $379M · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4200 · Dividend yield 7.5% · Net margin −32.7% · Return on equity −23.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.2% · Operating margin 31.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at 156%, CAMLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.78
Fair Value $5.51
Bull $9.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.27
$6.01
$11.22
75
EPV
$3.01
$3.36
$3.65
74
Growth DCF
$4.03
$6.62
$10.68
74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.27
$6.01
$11.22
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.76
$4.07
$6.77
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$5.80
$10.21
$18.85
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.23
$5.64
$6.92
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.31
$11.61
$22.72
62
Earnings-Based
EPV
$3.01
$3.36
$3.65
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.46
$2.64
$3.63
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.46
$2.41
$2.82
65
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$5.76
$7.52
$9.28
66
EV/EBITDA
$6.43
$8.41
$10.39
67
EV/Revenue
$1.92
$2.54
$3.16
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.8400
$1.12
$1.67
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.03
$6.62
$10.68
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.98
$4.59
$7.98
68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$3.76
$5.36
$6.61
70
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
66/100
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Profitability
18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
23
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
99
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
41.4% (2020) → 30.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+18.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−1.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)−1.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)−0.7%
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Compare Central Asia Metals plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $193.49 | $158.72 | −18% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $71.07 | $21.18 | −70% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$43.94 | C$14.24 | −68% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$33.45 | C$36.80 | +10% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥45.78 | ¥20.40 | −55% |
| KGHM Polska Miedz S.A KGH | 351.90 PLN | 156.67 PLN | −55% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.17 | ¥3.06 | −50% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$9.07 | HK$9.98 | +10% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$36.73 | C$23.40 | −36% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.65 | ¥6.39 | −67% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.51 versus a price of $2.15, about +156% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CAMLF?
Our model-based fair value for Central Asia Metals plc is $5.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.15.
What is the quality score of CAMLF?
Central Asia Metals plc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.78, optimistic scenario $9.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Central Asia Metals plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.51, about +156% upside versus a price of $2.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.78, optimistic scenario $9.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
Central Asia Metals plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $230M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Central Asia Metals plc pay a dividend?
Central Asia Metals plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Central Asia Metals plc would have to grow free cash flow by -7.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CAMLF use?
Our models discount Central Asia Metals plc at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.19, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Central Asia Metals plc that is -7.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Central Asia Metals plc grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies -7.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Central Asia Metals plc (-7.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.53 %: that much free cash flow Central Asia Metals plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Central Asia Metals plc it is $5.51 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $2.15. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Central Asia Metals plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CAMLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.15, fair value $5.51, a gap of about +156% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAMLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.51). For Central Asia Metals plc the two are $3.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Central Asia Metals plc worth?
The market values Central Asia Metals plc at about $379M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $2.15; our models calculate a fair value of $5.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAMLF?
Our models span a range for Central Asia Metals plc: cautious scenario $3.78, base $5.51, optimistic $9.27 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $2.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Central Asia Metals plc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −23.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CAMLF from its 52-week high?
Central Asia Metals plc trades at $2.15, about 37% below its 52-week high of $3.42 and 22% above the low of $1.76 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Central Asia Metals plc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Central Asia Metals plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $2.15, calculated fair value $5.51 (+156%), Quality Score 66/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAMLF calculated?
We run Central Asia Metals plc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Central Asia Metals plc currently trades 156 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Central Asia Metals plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.78). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($3.78 to $9.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF) come from?
Earnings per share at Central Asia Metals plc grew −3.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin −3.8 %, tax rate −2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Central Asia Metals plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
The market capitalisation of Central Asia Metals plc is $379M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Central Asia Metals plc is 1.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
Earnings per share at Central Asia Metals plc are $−0.4200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
The dividend yield of Central Asia Metals plc is 7.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
The net margin of Central Asia Metals plc is −32.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Central Asia Metals plc is −23.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Central Asia Metals plc is 17.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
The operating margin of Central Asia Metals plc is 31.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
Revenue at Central Asia Metals plc is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF)?
Earnings per share at Central Asia Metals plc are growing −57.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Central Asia Metals plc (CAMLF) hold?
Central Asia Metals plc holds more cash than debt, $78.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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