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Zhejiang Hailiang Co (002203) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 56.7B CNY

ZH Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 · SHE
Price¥20.80
Fair Value¥5.95
Upside-71.4%
Quality32/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 1.2% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.92% dividend yield
Trails peers (2/13)
Narrow moat 28/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥4.46 – ¥7.44 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Share price +2.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 71% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥26.30 ¥7.41 Fair Value ¥5.95 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.41 – ¥26.30 · fair‑value band ¥4.46 – ¥7.44 · the ¥20.80 price screens above the ¥5.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Hailiang Co (002203) currently trades at ¥20.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.95, implying the stock looks roughly 71.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Hailiang Co generated revenue of 86.7B CNY at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue grew 17.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at 13.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.46 (bear case) to ¥7.44 (bull case); at ¥20.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -71%, 002203 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥5.79 ¥5.99 ¥5.99 76
ROIC Compounder ¥6.16 ¥7.24 ¥9.53 72
Gordon GGM ¥4.54 ¥9.44 ¥14.98 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥5.41 ¥11.45 ¥23.16 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.80 ¥16.64 ¥23.19 54
Lynch FV ¥4.73 ¥6.76 ¥8.79 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.73 ¥6.76 ¥8.79 46
EPV ¥6.16 ¥7.24 ¥8.18 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥4.54 ¥9.44 ¥14.98 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥4.54 ¥7.96 ¥9.91 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.25 ¥7.00 ¥8.75 63
P/S Multiple ¥5.25 ¥7.00 ¥8.75 58
P/B Multiple ¥5.25 ¥7.00 ¥8.75 55
EV/EBIT ¥7.61 ¥10.25 ¥12.89 53
EV/EBITDA ¥8.47 ¥11.39 ¥14.31 54
EV/Revenue ¥6.56 ¥9.50 ¥12.44 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.67 ¥4.92 ¥7.34 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.79 ¥5.99 ¥5.99 76
ROIC Compounder ¥6.16 ¥7.24 ¥9.53 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥6.29 ¥8.99 ¥11.69 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.45) versus Asset-Based (¥4.92). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 86.7B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +17.1%
Net margin 1.2%
Return on equity 6.5%
Free cash flow −2.7B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 50.5
More key figures
Operating margin 2.9%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.4900
Dividend yield 0.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +18.8%
Net debt 13.7B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 91
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 19
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of copper products, conductor materials, and aluminum-based materials in China and internationally. It operates through Copper and Aluminum Processing Business, Environmental Materials Business, and Loan Business segments.

Full company description

Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of copper products, conductor materials, and aluminum-based materials in China and internationally. It operates through Copper and Aluminum Processing Business, Environmental Materials Business, and Loan Business segments. The company offers copper tube products comprising copper coils and straight tubes, brass straight tubes and coils, and copper nickel straight tubes and coils; copper and brass pipe fittings; copper and brass rods; copper busbars; lithium battery and electronic circuit copper foil; aluminum flat and round tubes; honeycomb denitration catalysts; refrigerant branch pipes, rubber pipe insulation, air conditioning cable ties, and welding rods; and environmentally friendly materials. It serves the new energy, home appliance, power, semiconductor, 5G communication, and construction industries. The company also engages in the loan and financial service businesses; commodity circulation; technology research and development; investment management; property management; logistics; power generation; technical service; and leasing activities. Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Zhuji, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Hailiang Co reported revenue of ¥83.3B in FY2025 versus ¥63.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥943M in FY2025, compounding −3.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
83.3B CNY
Latest YoY
−4.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+12.4%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y)
+20.1%
Revenue +7.1%/yr
FY21 ¥63.3B
FY22 ¥73.9B
FY23 ¥75.6B
FY24 ¥87.4B
FY25 ¥83.3B
Net income −3.9%/yr
FY21 ¥1.1B
FY22 ¥1.2B
FY23 ¥1.1B
FY24 ¥703M
FY25 ¥943M

002203 screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Hailiang Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002203

Peer Group

Copper · 58 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −71% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 17% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.40× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 50.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 3.37× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.65× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 22.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 86 · sector 100
PAST 26 · sector 22
HEALTH 80 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 18 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $175.66 $86.74 -51%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $61.52 $22.81 -63%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$34.86 C$18.67 -46%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥39.03 ¥35.19 -10%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥5.79 ¥3.06 -47%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM C$28.58 C$21.79 -24%
Capstone Copper Corp CSC A$13.06 A$7.28 -44%
Yunnan Copper Co 000878 ¥14.32 ¥9.12 -36%
China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 HK$14.75 HK$1.76 -88%
Hindustan Copper Limited HINDCOPPER ₹486.15 ₹158.42 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Hailiang Co (002203) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.95 versus a price of ¥20.80, about −71% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002203?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Hailiang Co is ¥5.95 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥20.80.
What is the quality score of 002203?
Zhejiang Hailiang Co has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Hailiang Co (002203)?
Zhejiang Hailiang Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 86.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002203?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Hailiang Co is about 1.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhejiang Hailiang Co pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Hailiang Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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