Zhejiang Hailiang Co (002203) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 56.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +2.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.41 – ¥26.30 · fair‑value band ¥4.46 – ¥7.44 · the ¥20.80 price screens above the ¥5.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Zhejiang Hailiang Co (002203) currently trades at ¥20.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.95, implying the stock looks roughly 71.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Hailiang Co generated revenue of 86.7B CNY at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue grew 17.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at 13.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.46 (bear case) to ¥7.44 (bull case); at ¥20.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -71%, 002203 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.45) versus Asset-Based (¥4.92). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of copper products, conductor materials, and aluminum-based materials in China and internationally. It operates through Copper and Aluminum Processing Business, Environmental Materials Business, and Loan Business segments.
Full company description
Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of copper products, conductor materials, and aluminum-based materials in China and internationally. It operates through Copper and Aluminum Processing Business, Environmental Materials Business, and Loan Business segments. The company offers copper tube products comprising copper coils and straight tubes, brass straight tubes and coils, and copper nickel straight tubes and coils; copper and brass pipe fittings; copper and brass rods; copper busbars; lithium battery and electronic circuit copper foil; aluminum flat and round tubes; honeycomb denitration catalysts; refrigerant branch pipes, rubber pipe insulation, air conditioning cable ties, and welding rods; and environmentally friendly materials. It serves the new energy, home appliance, power, semiconductor, 5G communication, and construction industries. The company also engages in the loan and financial service businesses; commodity circulation; technology research and development; investment management; property management; logistics; power generation; technical service; and leasing activities. Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Zhuji, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zhejiang Hailiang Co reported revenue of ¥83.3B in FY2025 versus ¥63.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥943M in FY2025, compounding −3.9%/yr from FY2021.
002203 screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
| Hindustan Copper Limited HINDCOPPER | ₹486.15 | ₹158.42 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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