Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation
Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free
Discover now →
Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Headwater Exploration Inc $10.38, price $9.49, upside +9.4%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
- Add to watchlist
HE
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Headwater Exploration Inc
CDDRF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $10.38 · Fairly valued (+9.4%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +122.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!4.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 79/100
!The models disagree: range $6.18 to $19.23
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.22 – $10.48 · fair‑value band $6.18 – $19.23 · the $9.49 price screens below the $10.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Headwater Exploration Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas resources in Canada. It holds interest in the Marten Hills area located in Alberta; and the McCully Field area located in New Brunswick. The company was formerly known as Corridor Resources Inc. and changed its name to Headwater Exploration Inc.
Show more
Headwater Exploration Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas resources in Canada. It holds interest in the Marten Hills area located in Alberta; and the McCully Field area located in New Brunswick. The company was formerly known as Corridor Resources Inc. and changed its name to Headwater Exploration Inc. in March 2020. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF) currently trades at $9.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.38, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.6%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $18.54 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $9.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.48, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.18 (bear) to $19.23 (bull), the price of $9.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Headwater Exploration Inc reported revenue of C$514M in FY2025 versus C$191M in FY2021, a compound +28.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$153M in FY2025, compounding +35.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $2.3B · P/E ratio 22.6 · P/S ratio 6.73 · EPS (TTM) $0.4200 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 29.8% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 9%, CDDRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.18
Fair Value $10.38
Bull $19.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$5.60
$8.45
$17.36
74
EPV
$4.54
$5.20
$5.78
74
Growth DCF
$5.27
$9.77
$17.00
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.60
$8.45
$17.36
74
Owner Earnings
$4.42
$9.43
$19.56
69
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.82
$4.12
$6.79
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$5.09
$8.70
$15.78
70
5Y P/E Exit
$5.32
$11.37
$19.59
65
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.64
$6.37
$7.71
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.31
$11.13
$21.18
62
10Y P/E Exit
$5.48
$11.62
$21.65
58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.07
$21.43
$30.08
61
Lynch FV
$11.07
$15.82
$20.57
59
PEG = 1.0
$11.07
$15.82
$20.57
55
EPV
$4.54
$5.20
$5.78
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.65
$5.28
$8.00
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.65
$4.57
$5.58
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$4.75
$6.33
$7.91
63
P/S Multiple
$1.37
$1.82
$2.28
58
P/B Multiple
$2.98
$3.97
$4.97
55
EV/EBIT
$4.87
$6.40
$7.92
66
EV/EBITDA
$4.73
$6.21
$7.69
67
EV/Revenue
$1.58
$2.12
$2.67
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.10
$1.48
$2.21
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.27
$9.77
$17.00
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.05
$4.68
$8.13
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.78
$3.43
$5.29
72
ROIC Compounder
$6.03
$9.44
$11.86
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$12.98
$18.54
$24.10
65
Notify me when CDDRF reaches fair value
Put CDDRF on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Profitability
68
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
68
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+122.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +41.6% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+73.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+69.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 40%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.6% a year for the price and +12.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+17.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+17.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+15.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+13.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+11.4%
Watch CDDRF, get fair value alerts →
Compare Headwater Exploration Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
All undervalued stocks
TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
🥇 Backtested Best
🏆 Big Names
⭐ Top Rated
💎 Quality on Sale
🚀 Profitable Growth
🧊 Quality Compounders
💵 Dividend Stars
📈 Strong Momentum
📉 Fallen Angels
⚖️ Deeply Undervalued
🔍 Small-Cap Gems
🏰 Moat at a Fair Price
💼 Insider Buying
🎩 Buffett-Style Quality
📚 Peter Lynch GARP
🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula
🛡️ Graham Defensive
Discover tools
Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector
Compare toolTwo stocks side by side
Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark
Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
Frequently asked questions
Is Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.38 versus a price of $9.49, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CDDRF?
Our model-based fair value for Headwater Exploration Inc is $10.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.49.
What is the quality score of CDDRF?
Headwater Exploration Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.18, optimistic scenario $19.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Headwater Exploration Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.38, about +9% upside versus a price of $9.49 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $6.18, optimistic scenario $19.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
Headwater Exploration Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$523M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Headwater Exploration Inc pay a dividend?
Headwater Exploration Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Headwater Exploration Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +122.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CDDRF use?
Our models discount Headwater Exploration Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Headwater Exploration Inc that is +16.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Headwater Exploration Inc grew +122.1 % a year. The price currently implies +16.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Headwater Exploration Inc (+16.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.45 %: that much free cash flow Headwater Exploration Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Headwater Exploration Inc it is $10.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.49. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Headwater Exploration Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CDDRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.49, fair value $10.38, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CDDRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.38). For Headwater Exploration Inc the two are $0.8940 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Headwater Exploration Inc worth?
The market values Headwater Exploration Inc at about $2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.49; our models calculate a fair value of $10.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CDDRF?
Our models span a range for Headwater Exploration Inc: cautious scenario $6.18, base $10.38, optimistic $19.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CDDRF from its 52-week high?
Headwater Exploration Inc trades at $9.49, about 9% below its 52-week high of $10.48 and 95% above the low of $4.86 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Headwater Exploration Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Headwater Exploration Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.49, calculated fair value $10.38 (+9%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CDDRF calculated?
We run Headwater Exploration Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Headwater Exploration Inc currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $9.49. Our model-based fair value is $10.38, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Headwater Exploration Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($6.18 to $19.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Headwater Exploration Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The market capitalisation of Headwater Exploration Inc is $2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Headwater Exploration Inc is 22.6. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Headwater Exploration Inc is 6.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
Earnings per share at Headwater Exploration Inc are $0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The dividend yield of Headwater Exploration Inc is 4.6% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The net margin of Headwater Exploration Inc is 29.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Headwater Exploration Inc is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Headwater Exploration Inc is 24.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
The operating margin of Headwater Exploration Inc is 30.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
Revenue at Headwater Exploration Inc is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF)?
Earnings per share at Headwater Exploration Inc are growing −28.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Headwater Exploration Inc (CDDRF) hold?
Headwater Exploration Inc holds more cash than debt, C$87.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Continue in the live analysis
Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Open the live analysis →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.