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Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Cebu Air, Inc $0.34, price $0.47, upside -28.4%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN PHY1234G1032

CA Cebu Air, Inc logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Cebu Air, Inc

CEBUF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $0.3361 · Overvalued (−28.4%)
!Quality 45/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +39.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Moderate moat 55/100
!The models disagree: range $0.2521 to $1.18

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$2.09 $0.0120 Fair Value $0.3361 Nov 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0120 – $2.09 · fair‑value band $0.2521 – $1.18 · the $0.4693 price screens above the $0.3361 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Cebu Air, Inc., an airline company, provides international and domestic air transportation services. It offers air transportation services for passengers, mail, merchandise, and freight, as well as flight and booking services.

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Cebu Air, Inc., an airline company, provides international and domestic air transportation services. It offers air transportation services for passengers, mail, merchandise, and freight, as well as flight and booking services. It also provides ancillary services, such as fare bundles, prepaid baggage, seat selector, superpass, travelsure, meals, Funshop and fun café, and transfers; aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, including line and base maintenance, mechanic assistance, technical ramp, equipment handling, and light maintenance aircraft checks; and ground handling services. In addition, the company engages in the acquisition, purchase, lease, construction, ownership, maintenance, operation, and disposal of airplanes and other aircraft, as well as hangars, transportation depots, aircraft service stations and agencies, and other related products and services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 100 aircraft. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Pasay City, the Philippines. Cebu Air, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of CP Air Holdings, Inc.

Stock analysis

Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF) currently trades at $0.4693, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3361, 28.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $1.94 per share, and 16 of the 17 models we run sit above the $0.4693 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.3300, and 1 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $0.2521 (bear) to $1.18 (bull), the price of $0.4693 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cebu Air, Inc reported revenue of 120B PHP in FY2025 versus 15.7B PHP in FY2021, a compound +66.3%/yr. Reported net income was 12.3B PHP in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $245M · P/E ratio 3.1 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 78.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 47.6% · Operating margin 9.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −28%, CEBUF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2521 Fair Value $0.3361 Bull $1.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1134 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $0.8900 $1.12 $1.30 74
Owner Earnings $15.26 $30.98 $58.41 70
ROIC Compounder $1.20 $1.94 $2.42 69
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $15.26 $30.98 $58.41 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.17 $15.16 $21.28 61
Lynch FV $7.83 $11.19 $14.55 59
PEG = 1.0 $7.83 $11.19 $14.55 55
EPV $0.8900 $1.12 $1.30 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.5100 $0.8600 $1.11 66
DDM Multi-Stage $0.5100 $0.8100 $0.9200 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $5.04 $6.71 $8.39 63
P/S Multiple $4.08 $5.44 $6.79 58
P/B Multiple $1.68 $2.24 $2.80 55
EV/EBIT $2.78 $4.05 $5.32 65
EV/EBITDA $6.82 $9.43 $12.05 67
EV/Revenue $1.68 $2.85 $4.02 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.2500 $0.3300 $0.5000 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.47 $2.53 $6.53 64
ROIC Compounder $1.20 $1.94 $2.42 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $10.25 $14.64 $19.03 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +56.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+56.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.68.7% vs 40.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−92% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 3,561% above its own trend.

CEBUF screens overvalued: fair value 28% below the price. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

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Values & ESG

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Southwest Airlines Co LUV $42.28 $14.74 −65%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹4,940 ₹3,073 −38%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 6.65 SGD 7.88 SGD +18%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $52.45 $106.79 +104%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥4.86 ¥2.78 −43%
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 HK$14.37 HK$31.02 +116%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €7.60 €9.90 +30%

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Cebu Air, Inc · Fair Value
$0.3361 −28%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cebu Air, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CEBUF

Frequently asked questions

Is Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3361 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.4693, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CEBUF?
Our model-based fair value for Cebu Air, Inc is $0.3361 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.4693.
What is the quality score of CEBUF?
Cebu Air, Inc has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3361 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2521, optimistic scenario $1.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cebu Air, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3361, about −28% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.4693 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2521, optimistic scenario $1.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
Cebu Air, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 123B PHP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cebu Air, Inc it is $0.3361 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.4693. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cebu Air, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CEBUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.4693, fair value $0.3361, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEBUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4693); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3361). For Cebu Air, Inc the two are $0.1332 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cebu Air, Inc worth?
The market values Cebu Air, Inc at about $245M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.4693; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3361 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEBUF?
Our models span a range for Cebu Air, Inc: cautious scenario $0.2521, base $0.3361, optimistic $1.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.4693). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CEBUF from its 52-week high?
Cebu Air, Inc trades at $0.4693, about 72% below its 52-week high of $1.69 and 17% above the low of $0.4000 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3361 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cebu Air, Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cebu Air, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.4693, calculated fair value $0.3361 (−28%), Quality Score 45/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEBUF calculated?
We run Cebu Air, Inc through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3361, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Cebu Air, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.4693. Our model-based fair value is $0.3361, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cebu Air, Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.2521 to $1.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Cebu Air, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
The market capitalisation of Cebu Air, Inc is $245M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Cebu Air, Inc is 3.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cebu Air, Inc is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
Earnings per share at Cebu Air, Inc are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
The net margin of Cebu Air, Inc is 10.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cebu Air, Inc is 78.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cebu Air, Inc is 47.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
The operating margin of Cebu Air, Inc is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
Revenue at Cebu Air, Inc is growing +9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF)?
Earnings per share at Cebu Air, Inc are growing +38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF) generate?
The free cash flow of Cebu Air, Inc is −2.4B PHP (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cebu Air, Inc (CEBUF) carry?
The net debt of Cebu Air, Inc is 170B PHP (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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