China Foods Ltd (CHFHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Foods Ltd $19.32, price $9.26, upside +108.6%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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China Foods Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells Coca-Cola series products in the People's Republic of China. It offers sparkling drinks, juices, water, milk drinks, energy drinks, tea, coffee, functional nutrition drinks, and sports and plant-based protein drinks under various brand names.
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China Foods Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells Coca-Cola series products in the People's Republic of China. It offers sparkling drinks, juices, water, milk drinks, energy drinks, tea, coffee, functional nutrition drinks, and sports and plant-based protein drinks under various brand names. The company is also involved in the production, sale, and distribution of beverage bottles; wholesale and retail of pre-packaged foods, and raw and auxiliary materials; provision of supply chain information consultation, management, and other services; and wholesale of packaged foods. In addition, it provides enterprise management and consulting, business information consulting, and marketing planning services, as well as computer information system development, consulting, promotion, and other services. Further, the company engages in the vending machine and food business, and internet sale of food, as well as sale of health food. The company was formerly known as COFCO International Limited. China Foods Limited was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. China Foods Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Foods (Holdings) Limited.
Stock analysis
China Foods Ltd ADR (CHFHY) currently trades at $9.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.32, implying the stock looks roughly 52.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $32.58 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the $9.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.93, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.49 (bear) to $24.15 (bull), the price of $9.26 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
China Foods Ltd ADR reported revenue of 22.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 19.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was 862M CNY in FY2025, compounding +10.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) $0.9100 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 109%, CHFHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.49Fair Value $19.32Bull $24.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5717 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.6% vs 13.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside+105.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.8% · Above median
Return on assets6.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Foods Ltd (CHFHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.32 versus a price of $9.26, about +109% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHFHY?
Our model-based fair value for China Foods Ltd ADR is $19.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.26.
What is the quality score of CHFHY?
China Foods Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.49, optimistic scenario $24.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Foods Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.32, about +109% upside versus a price of $9.26 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.49, optimistic scenario $24.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
China Foods Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Foods Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
China Foods Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Foods Ltd ADR it is $19.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.26. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Foods Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CHFHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.26, fair value $19.32, a gap of about +109% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHFHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.32). For China Foods Ltd ADR the two are $10.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Foods Ltd ADR worth?
The market values China Foods Ltd ADR at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.26; our models calculate a fair value of $19.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHFHY?
Our models span a range for China Foods Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $14.49, base $19.32, optimistic $24.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHFHY?
China Foods Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 1.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Foods Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to China Foods Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Foods Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.26, calculated fair value $19.32 (+109%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHFHY calculated?
We run China Foods Ltd ADR through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Foods Ltd ADR currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $9.26. Our model-based fair value is $19.32, about +109% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Foods Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.49). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY) come from?
Earnings per share at China Foods Ltd ADR grew +15.7 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.1 %, EBIT margin +18.6 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Foods Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
The market capitalisation of China Foods Ltd ADR is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Foods Ltd ADR is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
Earnings per share at China Foods Ltd ADR are $0.9100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
The dividend yield of China Foods Ltd ADR is 1.7% (payout 16.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
The net margin of China Foods Ltd ADR is 3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Foods Ltd ADR is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Foods Ltd ADR is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
The operating margin of China Foods Ltd ADR is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
Revenue at China Foods Ltd ADR is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Foods Ltd (CHFHY)?
Earnings per share at China Foods Ltd ADR are growing −3.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Foods Ltd (CHFHY) generate?
The free cash flow of China Foods Ltd ADR is $2.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China Foods Ltd (CHFHY) hold?
China Foods Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, $4.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026