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China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Southern Airlines Company $0.43, price $0.39, upside +10.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
China Southern Airlines Company
CHKIF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $0.4290 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
!Quality 51/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +14.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3000 – $1.33 · fair‑value band $0.4290 – $0.4680 · the $0.3900 price screens below the $0.4290 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other. The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services.
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China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other. The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services. It also provides online services, including seat and check-in, change/refund, flight status, pre-paid luggage, transfer accommodation, and meal booking. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. China Southern Airlines Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Southern Air Holding Company Limited.
Stock analysis
China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF) currently trades at $0.3900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4290, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.06 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.3900 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.0700, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.4290 (bear) to $0.4680 (bull), the price of $0.3900 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Southern Airlines Company reported revenue of 182B CNY in FY2025 versus 102B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.7%/yr. Reported net income was 857M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $8.5B · P/E ratio 15.7 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7% · Operating margin 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 10%, CHKIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4290
Fair Value $0.4290
Bull $0.4680
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0227 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$2.22
$3.85
$6.44
78
Growth DCF
$2.22
$3.76
$6.13
76
Residual Income
$0.2200
$0.2100
$0.2100
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$2.22
$3.85
$6.44
78
Owner Earnings
$1.58
$2.80
$4.73
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.03
$1.60
$2.30
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.60
$4.69
$7.24
74
5Y P/E Exit
$0.6600
$0.8600
$1.05
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.41
$2.06
$2.92
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.43
$4.23
$6.80
67
10Y P/E Exit
$1.20
$1.54
$1.93
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.0500
$0.2000
$0.2700
64
Lynch FV
$0.0500
$0.0700
$0.0900
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.0500
$0.0700
$0.0900
57
EPV
$0.2600
$0.3400
$0.4100
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.4400
$0.8900
$1.34
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.4400
$0.7700
$0.9300
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.1200
$0.1600
$0.2000
63
P/S Multiple
$0.1000
$0.1300
$0.1600
58
P/B Multiple
$0.1000
$0.1300
$0.1600
55
EV/EBIT
$0.7100
$1.03
$1.36
65
EV/EBITDA
$3.12
$4.25
$5.38
67
EV/Revenue
$0.4300
$0.7300
$1.03
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1500
$0.2100
$0.3100
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$2.22
$3.76
$6.13
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.03
$1.62
$2.36
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.2200
$0.2100
$0.2100
76
ROIC Compounder
$0.2600
$0.3700
$0.5600
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.0900
$0.1300
$0.1600
68
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Profitability
20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.3% vs −18.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−13% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.3% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.0%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.13 | $121.83 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $111.51 | $149.61 | +34% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €23.79 | €48.63 | +104% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $42.28 | $14.74 | −65% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹4,940 | ₹3,073 | −38% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 6.65 SGD | 7.88 SGD | +18% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.45 | $106.79 | +104% |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 | HK$14.37 | HK$31.02 | +116% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.60 | €9.90 | +30% |
| Qantas Airways Limited QAN | A$8.93 | A$9.69 | +9% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4290 versus a price of $0.3900, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHKIF?
Our model-based fair value for China Southern Airlines Company is $0.4290 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3900.
What is the quality score of CHKIF?
China Southern Airlines Company has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4290 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4290, optimistic scenario $0.4680. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Southern Airlines Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4290, about +10% upside versus a price of $0.3900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.4290, optimistic scenario $0.4680. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
China Southern Airlines Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 187B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Southern Airlines Company would have to grow free cash flow by -16.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHKIF use?
Our models discount China Southern Airlines Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Southern Airlines Company that is -16.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Southern Airlines Company grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies -16.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Southern Airlines Company (-16.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 45.61 %: that much free cash flow China Southern Airlines Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Southern Airlines Company it is $0.4290 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $0.3900. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Southern Airlines Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, CHKIF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.3900, fair value $0.4290, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHKIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4290). For China Southern Airlines Company the two are $0.0390 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Southern Airlines Company worth?
The market values China Southern Airlines Company at about $8.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $0.3900; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4290 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHKIF?
Our models span a range for China Southern Airlines Company: cautious scenario $0.4290, base $0.4290, optimistic $0.4680 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $0.3900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CHKIF from its 52-week high?
China Southern Airlines Company trades at $0.3900, about 51% below its 52-week high of $0.7900 and 3% above the low of $0.3785 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4290 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Southern Airlines Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Southern Airlines Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $0.3900, calculated fair value $0.4290 (+10%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHKIF calculated?
We run China Southern Airlines Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4290, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Southern Airlines Company currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.3900. Our model-based fair value is $0.4290, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Southern Airlines Company right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.4290). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band ($0.4290 to $0.4680), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of China Southern Airlines Company
How large is the market capitalisation of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
The market capitalisation of China Southern Airlines Company is $8.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of China Southern Airlines Company is 15.7 (as of Jun 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Southern Airlines Company is 0.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
Earnings per share at China Southern Airlines Company are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
The net margin of China Southern Airlines Company is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Southern Airlines Company is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Southern Airlines Company is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
The operating margin of China Southern Airlines Company is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
Revenue at China Southern Airlines Company is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF)?
Earnings per share at China Southern Airlines Company are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Southern Airlines Company (CHKIF) carry?
The net debt of China Southern Airlines Company is 150B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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