Chemung Financial Corporation (CHMG) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $342M

A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $31.38 – $82.86 · fair‑value band $30.55 – $50.92 · the $81.24 price screens above the $40.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Chemung Financial Corporation (CHMG) currently trades at $81.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.74, implying the stock looks roughly 49.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Chemung Financial Corporation generated revenue of $95.4M at a net margin of 19.2%. Revenue grew 19.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $17.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $30.55 (bear case) to $50.92 (bull case); at $81.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -50%, CHMG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($40.74) versus Dividend Discount ($15.13). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Chemung Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Chemung Canal Trust Company that provides a range of banking, financing, fiduciary, and other financial services. The company provides demand, savings, and time deposits; non-interest and interest-bearing checking accounts; and insured money market deposits.

Full company description

Chemung Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Chemung Canal Trust Company that provides a range of banking, financing, fiduciary, and other financial services. The company provides demand, savings, and time deposits; non-interest and interest-bearing checking accounts; and insured money market deposits. It also offers commercial and agricultural loans comprising loans to small to mid-sized businesses; commercial and residential mortgage loans; and consumer loans, including home equity lines of credit and home equity term loans, as well as automobile loans. In addition, the company provides interest rate swaps, letters of credit, employee benefit plans, insurance products, mutual fund, brokerage, and tax preparation services. Further, it offers guardian, custodian, trustee, investment, pension, estate planning, and employee benefit administrative services, as well as acts as an agent for pension, profit-sharing, and other employee benefit trusts. The company was founded in 1833 and is based in Elmira, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chemung Financial Corporation reported revenue of $140M in FY2025 versus $91.8M in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $15.1M in FY2025, compounding −13.1%/yr from FY2021.

CHMG screens 50% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.