Centene Corp (CNC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Centene Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.21 – $97.22 · fair‑value band $101.39 – $290.75 · the $64.99 price screens below the $194.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other.
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Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services. The Medicare segment offers special needs and medicare supplement, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides health insurance marketplace product for individual and commercial group. The Other segment operates clinical healthcare and pharmacies, as well as offers vision and dental, behavioral health, and centralized services. It provides services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, behavioral health practitioners, and ancillary providers. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Stock analysis
Centene Corp (CNC) currently trades at $64.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $194.97, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $232.83 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $64.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $27.07, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $101.39 (bear) to $290.75 (bull), the price of $64.99 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Centene Corp reported revenue of $195B in FY2025 versus $126B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.7B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $31.9B · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) $−13.05 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −3.4% · Return on equity −26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 159% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 200%, CNC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $101.39Fair Value $194.97Bull $290.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.8% (2020) → −3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+67% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Centene Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNC
Frequently asked questions
Is Centene Corp (CNC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $194.97 versus a price of $64.99, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CNC?
Our model-based fair value for Centene Corp is $194.97 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $64.99.
What is the quality score of CNC?
Centene Corp has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Centene Corp (CNC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $194.97 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $101.39, optimistic scenario $290.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Centene Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $194.97, about +200% upside versus a price of $64.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $101.39, optimistic scenario $290.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Centene Corp (CNC)?
Centene Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $178B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Centene Corp pay a dividend?
Centene Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Centene Corp (CNC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Centene Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNC use?
Our models discount Centene Corp at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Centene Corp that is -9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Centene Corp (CNC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Centene Corp grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies -9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Centene Corp (CNC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Centene Corp (-9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Centene Corp (CNC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.51 %: that much free cash flow Centene Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Centene Corp (CNC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Centene Corp it is $194.97 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $64.99. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Centene Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, CNC trades below its calculated fair value: price $64.99, fair value $194.97, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($64.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($194.97). For Centene Corp the two are $129.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Centene Corp worth?
The market values Centene Corp at about $31.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $64.99; our models calculate a fair value of $194.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNC?
Our models span a range for Centene Corp: cautious scenario $101.39, base $194.97, optimistic $290.75 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $64.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CNC?
The PEG ratio of Centene Corp is 1.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Centene Corp (CNC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Centene Corp (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −26.0%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNC from its 52-week high?
Centene Corp trades at $64.99, about 5% below its 52-week high of $62.10 and 159% above the low of $25.08 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $194.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Centene Corp?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value UnitedHealth Group, CVS Health Corporation, Elevance Health, Inc, The Cigna Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Centene Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $64.99, calculated fair value $194.97 (+200%), Quality Score 62/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNC calculated?
We run Centene Corp through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $194.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Centene Corp currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Centene Corp (CNC)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $64.99. Our model-based fair value is $194.97, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Centene Corp right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($101.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($101.39 to $290.75). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Centene Corp (CNC) come from?
Earnings per share at Centene Corp grew +17.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.9 %, EBIT margin −5.2 %, tax rate +4.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Centene Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Centene Corp (CNC)?
The market capitalisation of Centene Corp is $31.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Centene Corp (CNC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Centene Corp is 0.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Centene Corp (CNC)?
Earnings per share at Centene Corp are $−13.05. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Centene Corp (CNC)?
The dividend yield of Centene Corp is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Centene Corp (CNC)?
The net margin of Centene Corp is −3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Centene Corp (CNC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Centene Corp is −26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Centene Corp (CNC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Centene Corp is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Centene Corp (CNC)?
The operating margin of Centene Corp is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Centene Corp (CNC)?
Revenue at Centene Corp is growing +5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Centene Corp (CNC)?
Earnings per share at Centene Corp are growing +18.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Centene Corp (CNC) carry?
The net debt of Centene Corp is $889M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 18, 2026