Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Natura City Developments Tbk PT IDR 60, price IDR 177, upside -66.2%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Natura City Developments Tbk operates as a real estate company in Indonesia. It operates through four segments: Land Sales, Residential Houses, Shop Houses, and town Management. The company invests in the management and development of residential properties; and services and retail activities.
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PT Natura City Developments Tbk operates as a real estate company in Indonesia. It operates through four segments: Land Sales, Residential Houses, Shop Houses, and town Management. The company invests in the management and development of residential properties; and services and retail activities. It also offers trade, industry, agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, and urban/area management services. The company was formerly known as PT Sumber Jaya Adhiguna and changed its name to PT Natura City Developments Tbk in March 2018. PT Natura City Developments Tbk was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Bogor, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY) currently trades at 177.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 59.78 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 196.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 109.70 IDR per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the 177.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 56.58 IDR, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 42.43 IDR (bear) to 70.72 IDR (bull), the price of 177.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Natura City Developments Tbk PT reported revenue of 145B IDR in FY2025 versus 78.6B IDR in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was 18.0B IDR in FY2025, compounding +94.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 957B IDR (≈ $53.5M) · P/E ratio 40.9 · P/S ratio 5.07 · EPS (TTM) 4.33 IDR · Net margin 12.4% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% · Operating margin 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −66%, CITY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 42.43 IDRFair Value 59.78 IDRBull 70.72 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.18 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+53.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+53.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs −15%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 11%
2025 sits 248% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.9%/yr over ~8Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Natura City Developments Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−66% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)40.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)6.10× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA32.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Natura City Developments Tbk PT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CITY
Frequently asked questions
Is Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 59.78 IDR versus a price of 177.00 IDR, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CITY?
Our model-based fair value for Natura City Developments Tbk PT is 59.78 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 177.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of CITY?
Natura City Developments Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 59.78 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 42.43 IDR, optimistic scenario 70.72 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Natura City Developments Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 59.78 IDR, about −66% upside versus a price of 177.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 42.43 IDR, optimistic scenario 70.72 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
Natura City Developments Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 157B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Natura City Developments Tbk PT it is 59.78 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 177.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Natura City Developments Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CITY trades above its calculated fair value: price 177.00 IDR, fair value 59.78 IDR, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CITY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (177.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (59.78 IDR). For Natura City Developments Tbk PT the two are 117.22 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Natura City Developments Tbk PT worth?
The market values Natura City Developments Tbk PT at about 957B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 177.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 59.78 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CITY?
Our models span a range for Natura City Developments Tbk PT: cautious scenario 42.43 IDR, base 59.78 IDR, optimistic 70.72 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 177.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CITY?
Natura City Developments Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 59.78 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 32.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Natura City Developments Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.6%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CITY from its 52-week high?
Natura City Developments Tbk PT trades at 177.00 IDR, about 62% below its 52-week high of 462.00 IDR and 59% above the low of 111.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 59.78 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Natura City Developments Tbk PT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Natura City Developments Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 177.00 IDR, calculated fair value 59.78 IDR (−66%), Quality Score 56/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CITY calculated?
We run Natura City Developments Tbk PT through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 59.78 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Natura City Developments Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 177.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 59.78 IDR, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Natura City Developments Tbk PT right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (70.72 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY) come from?
Earnings per share at Natura City Developments Tbk PT grew −23.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.6 %, EBIT margin −19.5 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Natura City Developments Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
The market capitalisation of Natura City Developments Tbk PT is 957B IDR (≈ $53.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Natura City Developments Tbk PT is 5.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
Earnings per share at Natura City Developments Tbk PT are 4.33 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
The net margin of Natura City Developments Tbk PT is 12.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Natura City Developments Tbk PT is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Natura City Developments Tbk PT is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
The operating margin of Natura City Developments Tbk PT is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
Revenue at Natura City Developments Tbk PT is growing +26.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +58.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY)?
Earnings per share at Natura City Developments Tbk PT are growing +57.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY) generate?
The free cash flow of Natura City Developments Tbk PT is −54.3B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Natura City Developments Tbk PT (CITY) hold?
Natura City Developments Tbk PT holds more cash than debt, 28.1B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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