CH. Karnchang PCL (CK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of CH. Karnchang PCL THB 33.67, price THB 18.10, upside +86.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.28 THB – 23.12 THB · fair‑value band 25.25 THB – 42.09 THB · the 18.10 THB price screens below the 33.67 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides construction services in Thailand and the Lao People's Democratic Republic. It operates through two segments, Construction and Related Service and Investment in Infrastructure Business.
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CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides construction services in Thailand and the Lao People's Democratic Republic. It operates through two segments, Construction and Related Service and Investment in Infrastructure Business. The company engages in the construction of mass rapid transit systems, airports, roads and expressways, energy projects, water supply and harbour projects, and buildings. It also invests in infrastructure project development business; and sells construction materials. The company serves government agencies and private customers. CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited was founded in 1972 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
CH. Karnchang PCL (CK) currently trades at 18.10 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 33.67 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 46.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 39.80 THB per share, and 15 of the 22 models we run sit above the 18.10 THB price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 4.43 THB, and 7 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 25.25 THB (bear) to 42.09 THB (bull), the price of 18.10 THB sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CH. Karnchang PCL reported revenue of 44.3B THB in FY2025 versus 12.2B THB in FY2021, a compound +38.0%/yr. Reported net income was 3.3B THB in FY2025, compounding +38.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 30.4B THB (≈ $913M) · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) 2.01 THB · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 86%, CK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 25.25 THBFair Value 33.67 THBBull 42.09 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.14 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 132% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.2% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+86% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.26× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is CH. Karnchang PCL (CK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 33.67 THB versus a price of 18.10 THB, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CK?
Our model-based fair value for CH. Karnchang PCL is 33.67 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 18.10 THB.
What is the quality score of CK?
CH. Karnchang PCL has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 33.67 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25.25 THB, optimistic scenario 42.09 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CH. Karnchang PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 33.67 THB, about +86% upside versus a price of 18.10 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 25.25 THB, optimistic scenario 42.09 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
CH. Karnchang PCL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 44.6B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CH. Karnchang PCL pay a dividend?
CH. Karnchang PCL currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CH. Karnchang PCL would have to grow free cash flow by -6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CK use?
Our models discount CH. Karnchang PCL at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CH. Karnchang PCL that is -6.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CH. Karnchang PCL (CK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CH. Karnchang PCL grew +21.5 % a year. The price currently implies -6.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CH. Karnchang PCL (-6.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.40 %: that much free cash flow CH. Karnchang PCL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CH. Karnchang PCL it is 33.67 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 18.10 THB. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CH. Karnchang PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CK trades below its calculated fair value: price 18.10 THB, fair value 33.67 THB, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (18.10 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (33.67 THB). For CH. Karnchang PCL the two are 15.57 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CH. Karnchang PCL worth?
The market values CH. Karnchang PCL at about 30.4B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 18.10 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 33.67 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CK?
Our models span a range for CH. Karnchang PCL: cautious scenario 25.25 THB, base 33.67 THB, optimistic 42.09 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 18.10 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CK?
CH. Karnchang PCL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 33.67 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 24.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CK?
The PEG ratio of CH. Karnchang PCL is 1.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
Balance-sheet figures for CH. Karnchang PCL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 1.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CK from its 52-week high?
CH. Karnchang PCL trades at 18.10 THB, about 10% below its 52-week high of 20.20 THB and 64% above the low of 11.02 THB (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 33.67 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CH. Karnchang PCL?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CH. Karnchang PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 18.10 THB, calculated fair value 33.67 THB (+86%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CK calculated?
We run CH. Karnchang PCL through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 33.67 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CH. Karnchang PCL currently trades 86 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 18.10 THB. Our model-based fair value is 33.67 THB, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CH. Karnchang PCL right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (25.25 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK) come from?
Earnings per share at CH. Karnchang PCL grew −0.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CH. Karnchang PCL
How large is the market capitalisation of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
The market capitalisation of CH. Karnchang PCL is 30.4B THB (≈ $913M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CH. Karnchang PCL is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
Earnings per share at CH. Karnchang PCL are 2.01 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
The dividend yield of CH. Karnchang PCL is 2.5% (payout 22.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
The net margin of CH. Karnchang PCL is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CH. Karnchang PCL is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CH. Karnchang PCL is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
The operating margin of CH. Karnchang PCL is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
Revenue at CH. Karnchang PCL is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CH. Karnchang PCL (CK)?
Earnings per share at CH. Karnchang PCL are growing +16.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CH. Karnchang PCL (CK) carry?
The net debt of CH. Karnchang PCL is 38.0B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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