Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $396M
Caledonia Mining Corporation
CMCL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $48.61 to $18.47 (−62.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +19.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($13.85 to $34.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.56 – $37.08 · fair‑value band $13.85 – $34.21 · the $21.75 price screens above the $18.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) currently trades at $21.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.47, implying the stock looks roughly 15.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Caledonia Mining Corporation generated revenue of $262M at a net margin of 23.8%. Revenue grew 13.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $3.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.85 (bear case) to $34.21 (bull case); at $21.75, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -15%, CMCL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($123.12) versus Asset-Based ($8.99). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when CMCL reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily operates a gold mine in Jersey. It also engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. The company was formerly known as Caledonia Mining Corporation and changed its name to Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc in March 2016.
Full company description
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily operates a gold mine in Jersey. It also engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. The company was formerly known as Caledonia Mining Corporation and changed its name to Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc in March 2016. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Caledonia Mining Corporation reported revenue of $254M in FY2025 versus $121M in FY2021, a compound +20.3%/yr. Reported net income was $55.2M in FY2025, compounding +33.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +15.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −7.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CMCL screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Notification of Relevant Change to Significant Shareholder
- Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc: Notification of Relevant Change to Significant Shareholder
- Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) Reports Q1 2026 Results
- Empire Metals, Tertiary Minerals, Rome Resources, Caledonia Mining, London BTC Company
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
Compare Caledonia Mining Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CMCL?
What is the quality score of CMCL?
What is the revenue of Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL)?
What is the net profit margin of CMCL?
Does Caledonia Mining Corporation pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Caledonia Mining Corporation and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.