Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Core Molding Technologies Inc stock $16.28, price $21.67, that is 24.9% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.01 – $29.65 · fair‑value band $10.28 – $23.26 · the $21.67 price screens above the $16.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Core Molding Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a molder of thermoplastic and thermoset structural products in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and internationally.
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The company offers a range of manufacturing processes, such as sheet molding compound compression molding, direct long fiber thermoplastic compression molding, vacuum resin transfer compression molding, structural foam and web injection molding, reaction injection molding, hand lay-up, and spray-up processes.
It serves various markets, including medium and heavy-duty trucks, power sports, building products, industrial and utilities, and other commercial markets. The company was formerly known as Core Materials Corporation and changed its name to Core Molding Technologies, Inc. in August 2002.
Core Molding Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT) currently trades at $21.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.28, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $22.25 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the $21.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.90, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.28 (bear) to $23.26 (bull), the price of $21.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Core Molding Technologies Inc reported revenue of $274M in FY2025 versus $307M in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was $11.2M in FY2025, compounding +24.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $184M Micro · P/E ratio 26.8 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −25%, CMT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.28Fair Value $16.28Bull$23.26
Price $21.67 · Downside -24.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6946 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $6,487, on Jun 29, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $352,520.
SaleRalph O HellmoldDirector4,268 shares at $25.82$110,200Aug 7, 2026
BuyAlex Joseph PandaEVP, Treasurer, Secretary, CFO275 shares at $23.59$6,487Jun 29, 2026
SaleThomas R CellittiDirector4× since Jun 11, 2026: 9,900 shares, avg. $24.48$242,320Jun 25, 2026
BuyEric PalomakiChief Operating Officer400 shares at $20.06$8,022Mar 20, 2026
BuyMichael James GayfordEVP of Operations500 shares at $20.12$10,060Mar 19, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.9% vs 0.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.5% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 728 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)54.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Is Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.28 versus a price of $21.67, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CMT?
Our model-based fair value for Core Molding Technologies Inc is $16.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.67.
What is the quality score of CMT?
Core Molding Technologies Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.28, optimistic scenario $23.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Core Molding Technologies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.28, about 25% lower versus a price of $21.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.28, optimistic scenario $23.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
Core Molding Technologies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $286M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Core Molding Technologies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +42.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMT use?
Our models discount Core Molding Technologies Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Core Molding Technologies Inc that is +42.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Core Molding Technologies Inc grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +42.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Core Molding Technologies Inc (+42.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.04 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Core Molding Technologies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Core Molding Technologies Inc it is $16.28 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $21.67. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Core Molding Technologies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CMT trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.67, fair value $16.28, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.28). For Core Molding Technologies Inc the two are $5.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Core Molding Technologies Inc worth?
The market values Core Molding Technologies Inc at about $184M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $21.67; our models calculate a fair value of $16.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMT?
Our models span a range for Core Molding Technologies Inc: cautious scenario $10.28, base $16.28, optimistic $23.26 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $21.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMT?
Core Molding Technologies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.28 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 14.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CMT?
The PEG ratio of Core Molding Technologies Inc is 0.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Core Molding Technologies Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMT from its 52-week high?
Core Molding Technologies Inc trades at $21.67, about 24% below its 52-week high of $28.35 and 23% above the low of $17.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Core Molding Technologies Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Core Molding Technologies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $21.67, calculated fair value $16.28 (−25%), Quality Score 58/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMT calculated?
We run Core Molding Technologies Inc through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.28 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Core Molding Technologies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $21.67. Our model-based fair value is $16.28, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Core Molding Technologies Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.28 to $23.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT) come from?
Earnings per share at Core Molding Technologies Inc grew +3.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Core Molding Technologies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
The market capitalisation of Core Molding Technologies Inc is $184M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Core Molding Technologies Inc is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
Earnings per share at Core Molding Technologies Inc are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
The net margin of Core Molding Technologies Inc is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Core Molding Technologies Inc is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Core Molding Technologies Inc is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
The operating margin of Core Molding Technologies Inc is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
Revenue at Core Molding Technologies Inc is growing +54.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT)?
Earnings per share at Core Molding Technologies Inc are growing −22.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Core Molding Technologies Inc (CMT) hold?
Core Molding Technologies Inc holds more cash than debt, $5.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026