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CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CNH Industrial N.V €7.56, price €11.68, upside -35.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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CI
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
CNH Industrial N.V
CNHI · VIWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value €7.56 · Strongly overvalued (−35.3%)
!Quality 48/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.9% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 32/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.93 – €15.31 · fair‑value band €5.01 – €9.44 · the €11.68 price screens above the €7.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
CNH Industrial N.V., an equipment company, engages in the develops, manufacture, and sale agricultural and construction equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through three segments: Agriculture, Construction, and Financial Services.
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CNH Industrial N.V., an equipment company, engages in the develops, manufacture, and sale agricultural and construction equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through three segments: Agriculture, Construction, and Financial Services. The Agriculture segment develops, manufactures, distributes, and supports agriculture equipment, implements, and precision agriculture solutions, such as tractors, harvesters, hay and forage equipment, seeding and planting equipment, and self-propelled sprayers under Case IH, New Holland, STEYR, and Raven brands. The Construction segment develops, manufactures, distributes, and supports construction equipment comprising excavators, crawler dozers, graders, wheel loaders, backhoe loaders, skid steer loaders, and compact track loaders under the New Holland Construction, Case Construction, and Eurocomach brands. The Financial Services segment provides and administers financing to end-use customers for the purchase of new and used agricultural and construction equipment and components, as well as revolving charge account financing and other financial services under the Banco CNH brand. This segment also offers wholesale financing to CNH dealers and distributors, as well as trade receivables factoring services. CNH Industrial N.V. was founded in 1842 and is headquartered in Basildon, the United Kingdom
Stock analysis
CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI) currently trades at €11.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.56, 35.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €13.15 per share, and 9 of the 21 models we run sit above the €11.68 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €3.04, and 12 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €5.01 (bear) to €9.44 (bull), the price of €11.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
CNH Industrial N.V reported revenue of $18.1B in FY2025 versus $33.4B in FY2021, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $510M in FY2025, compounding −26.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €14.5B · P/E ratio 41.7 · P/S ratio 1.18 · EPS (TTM) €0.2800 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −35%, CNHI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.01
Fair Value €7.56
Bull €9.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1361 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€6.75
€13.39
€25.68
76
Residual Income
€4.51
€4.75
€5.15
76
Growth DCF
€7.54
€13.98
€24.99
75
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€6.75
€13.39
€25.68
76
5Y Revenue Exit
€5.57
€12.75
€23.19
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
€8.98
€18.66
€31.48
72
5Y P/E Exit
n/a
€2.05
€5.28
68
10Y Revenue Exit
€5.47
€10.87
€16.65
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
€7.97
€14.52
€21.52
67
10Y P/E Exit
€2.15
€4.25
€6.14
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€2.48
€3.04
€3.42
67
EPV
€3.89
€6.23
€8.28
72
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€5.75
€7.67
€9.59
63
P/S Multiple
€4.66
€6.21
€7.76
58
P/B Multiple
€4.66
€6.21
€7.76
55
EV/EBIT
€15.47
€24.01
€32.55
65
EV/EBITDA
€13.84
€21.83
€29.83
66
EV/Revenue
€6.19
€13.19
€20.19
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€2.77
€3.71
€5.54
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€7.54
€13.98
€24.99
75
Rev-Margin DCF
€5.57
€13.15
€22.44
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€4.51
€4.75
€5.15
76
ROIC Compounder
€3.89
€6.34
€9.13
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€4.06
€5.80
€7.55
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Profitability
26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 16%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.9% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−1.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.9%
CNHI screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- CNH Industrial (CNH) Prepares EPA Software Update To Cut Equipment Interruptions
- Pricing of CNH Industrial Capital Canada Ltd. Cdn$200 million notes due 2028 and Cdn$350 million notes due 2030
- CNH Industrial (CNH) Looks Undervalued: Why Moerus Is Betting on a Farm Equipment Recovery
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $810.79 | $308.45 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $671.55 | $258.17 | −62% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $109.81 | $120.79 | +10% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €42.54 | €50.36 | +18% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥17.20 | ¥20.84 | +21% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €34.04 | €32.82 | −4% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €17.08 | €18.79 | +10% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥7.17 | ¥14.52 | +103% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$35.30 | HK$56.32 | +60% |
| Ashok Leyland Limited ASHOKLEY | ₹159.08 | ₹118.01 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.56 versus a price of €11.68, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNHI?
Our model-based fair value for CNH Industrial N.V is €7.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.68.
What is the quality score of CNHI?
CNH Industrial N.V has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.01, optimistic scenario €9.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CNH Industrial N.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.56, about −35% upside versus a price of €11.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.01, optimistic scenario €9.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
CNH Industrial N.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does CNH Industrial N.V pay a dividend?
CNH Industrial N.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CNH Industrial N.V would have to grow free cash flow by +17.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNHI use?
Our models discount CNH Industrial N.V at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CNH Industrial N.V that is +17.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CNH Industrial N.V grew -7.0 % a year. The price currently implies +17.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CNH Industrial N.V (+17.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.20 %: that much free cash flow CNH Industrial N.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CNH Industrial N.V it is €7.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €11.68. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CNH Industrial N.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CNHI trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.68, fair value €7.56, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNHI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.56). For CNH Industrial N.V the two are €4.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CNH Industrial N.V worth?
The market values CNH Industrial N.V at about €14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €11.68; our models calculate a fair value of €7.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNHI?
Our models span a range for CNH Industrial N.V: cautious scenario €5.01, base €7.56, optimistic €9.44 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €11.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CNHI from its 52-week high?
CNH Industrial N.V trades at €11.68, about 6% below its 52-week high of €12.38 and 47% above the low of €7.93 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CNH Industrial N.V?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CNH Industrial N.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €11.68, calculated fair value €7.56 (−35%), Quality Score 48/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNHI calculated?
We run CNH Industrial N.V through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €7.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CNH Industrial N.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €11.68. Our model-based fair value is €7.56, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CNH Industrial N.V right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€5.01 to €9.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of CNH Industrial N.V
How large is the market capitalisation of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The market capitalisation of CNH Industrial N.V is €14.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of CNH Industrial N.V is 41.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CNH Industrial N.V is 1.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
Earnings per share at CNH Industrial N.V are €0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The dividend yield of CNH Industrial N.V is 0.9% (payout 35.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The net margin of CNH Industrial N.V is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CNH Industrial N.V is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CNH Industrial N.V is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
The operating margin of CNH Industrial N.V is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
Revenue at CNH Industrial N.V is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI)?
Earnings per share at CNH Industrial N.V are growing −94.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CNH Industrial N.V (CNHI) carry?
The net debt of CNH Industrial N.V is $24.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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