Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Coffee Stain Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Coffee Stain Group AB (publ) develops and publishes community-driven games primarily for PC and console platforms in Scandinavia and internationally. It operates game studios, including Coffee Stain, Ghost Ship, and Tuxedo Labs. The company's titles include Goat Simulator, Satisfactory, Deep Rock Galactic, Valheim, Teardown, and Welcome to Bloxburg.
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Coffee Stain Group AB (publ) develops and publishes community-driven games primarily for PC and console platforms in Scandinavia and internationally. It operates game studios, including Coffee Stain, Ghost Ship, and Tuxedo Labs. The company's titles include Goat Simulator, Satisfactory, Deep Rock Galactic, Valheim, Teardown, and Welcome to Bloxburg. It serves gamers and digital entertainment consumers. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Karlstad, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B) currently trades at kr 19.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 5.68, implying the stock looks roughly 240.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 17.77 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 19.32 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at kr 0.8500, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 5.30 (bear) to kr 6.01 (bull), the price of kr 19.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Coffee Stain Group reported revenue of 961M SEK in FY2026 versus 1.1B SEK in FY2024, a compound −5.9%/yr. Reported net income was 11.0M SEK in FY2026, compounding −81.4%/yr from FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap 4.3B SEK (≈ $439M) · P/E ratio 346.0 · P/S ratio 3.96 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.0500 · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% · Operating margin −0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 27% fair-value upside, at −71%, COFFEE-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 5.30Fair Value kr 5.68Bull kr 6.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.0229 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 148 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Coffee Stain Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COFFEE-B
Frequently asked questions
Is Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 5.68 versus a price of kr 19.32, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COFFEE-B?
Our model-based fair value for Coffee Stain Group is kr 5.68 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 19.32.
What is the quality score of COFFEE-B?
Coffee Stain Group has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 5.68 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 5.30, optimistic scenario kr 6.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Coffee Stain Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 5.68, about −71% upside versus a price of kr 19.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 5.30, optimistic scenario kr 6.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
Coffee Stain Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 961M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Coffee Stain Group would have to grow free cash flow by -4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew -5.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COFFEE-B use?
Our models discount Coffee Stain Group at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Coffee Stain Group that is -4.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Coffee Stain Group grew -5.9 % a year. The price currently implies -4.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Coffee Stain Group (-4.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.70 %: that much free cash flow Coffee Stain Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Coffee Stain Group it is kr 5.68 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of kr 19.32. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Coffee Stain Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, COFFEE-B trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 19.32, fair value kr 5.68, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COFFEE-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 19.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 5.68). For Coffee Stain Group the two are kr 13.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Coffee Stain Group worth?
The market values Coffee Stain Group at about 4.3B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 19.32; our models calculate a fair value of kr 5.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COFFEE-B?
Our models span a range for Coffee Stain Group: cautious scenario kr 5.30, base kr 5.68, optimistic kr 6.01 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price kr 19.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COFFEE-B?
Coffee Stain Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 346.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 5.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for Coffee Stain Group (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 0.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COFFEE-B from its 52-week high?
Coffee Stain Group trades at kr 19.32, about 28% below its 52-week high of kr 27.00 and 23% above the low of kr 15.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 5.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Coffee Stain Group?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Konami Group, NetEase, Inc, Electronic Arts Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Coffee Stain Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price kr 19.32, calculated fair value kr 5.68 (−71%), Quality Score 62/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COFFEE-B calculated?
We run Coffee Stain Group through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 5.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Coffee Stain Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Coffee Stain Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 6.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (kr 5.30 to kr 6.01), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Coffee Stain Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
The market capitalisation of Coffee Stain Group is 4.3B SEK (≈ $439M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Coffee Stain Group is 3.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
Earnings per share at Coffee Stain Group are kr 0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 346.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
The net margin of Coffee Stain Group is 1.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Coffee Stain Group is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Coffee Stain Group is 6.3% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
The operating margin of Coffee Stain Group is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
Revenue at Coffee Stain Group is growing +20.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B)?
Earnings per share at Coffee Stain Group are growing −66.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Coffee Stain Group (COFFEE-B) hold?
Coffee Stain Group holds more cash than debt, 598M SEK net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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