G Collado, S.A. (COLLADO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 1.6B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from 7.68 MXN to 2.88 MXN (−62.5%) since Jun 24, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3.59 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6.71 MXN – 8.22 MXN · fair‑value band 2.15 MXN – 3.59 MXN · the 7.80 MXN price screens above the 2.88 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
G Collado, S.A. (COLLADO) currently trades at 7.80 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.88 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 63.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, G Collado, S.A. generated revenue of 11.2B MXN at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue declined 13.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 21.1. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2.15 MXN (bear case) to 3.59 MXN (bull case); at 7.80 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -63%, COLLADO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (34.45 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (0.8300 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
G Collado, S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the manufacture, transformation, processing, purchase, sale, and distribution of steel products in Mexico.
Full company description
G Collado, S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the manufacture, transformation, processing, purchase, sale, and distribution of steel products in Mexico. The company provides blueprint products, comprising corrugated, cast-anti slip, claw anti-slip, galvanized and painted, hot and cold rolled, and steel plates, as well as black and galvanized boards; and meshes and derivatives, such as fence accessories, polished and galvanized wire, lattices, concertinas, gabion, perforating sheet, cyclonic mesh, expanded metal, structural expanded metal, ceiling and gutter, and steel grates. It offers pipeline products, including galvanized steel conduit, square industrial, oval industrial, rectangular industrial, industrial round, and standard X pipes, as well as structural tube schedules; and construction products, such as annealed wires, prefabricated castles, standard headed nail, ladders, welded mesh, and rods. In addition, the company offers commercial profiles, including commercial angles, channels, mon-ten channels, squares, hollow structural, galvanized and painted tubular, rectangular tubular, round, soleras, IPR and IPS beam, zeta and tee; and damping economizer system. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2015 – FY2019 · reported fiscal years
G Collado, S.A. reported revenue of 8.3B MXN in FY2019 versus 5.6B MXN in FY2015, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was 21.0M MXN in FY2019.
COLLADO screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 378 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,210 ARS | +53% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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