Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vina Concha To CLP 1,032, price CLP 920, upside +12.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 807.34 CLP – 1,217 CLP · fair‑value band 618.53 CLP – 1,743 CLP · the 920.00 CLP price screens below the 1,032 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Viña Concha y Toro S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, stores, transports, and sells wines in Chile, Argentina, and the United States.
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Viña Concha y Toro S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, stores, transports, and sells wines in Chile, Argentina, and the United States. The company sells its wines under the Concha y Toro, Don Melchor, Marques de Casa Concha, Casillero del Diablo, Diablo, Frontera, Viña Maipo, Carmín de Peumo, Amelia, Terrunyo, Trio, Tocornal, Santa Emiliana, Clos de Pirque, Sunrise, Palo Alto, Sendero, Reservado Concha y Toro, SBX, Descorcha, Cono Sur, Bicicleta, Isla Negra, Ocio, 20 Barrels, Trivento, Eolo, Fetzer, Bonterra, 1000 Stories, Sanctuary, and Jekel brands, as well as Krossbar and Kross Cervecería Independiente brands. It is also involved in distribution of premium spirits and beers; provision of tourism services; and real estate business. Concha y Toro S.A. was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Las Condes, Chile.
Stock analysis
Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO) currently trades at 920.00 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,032 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 1,598 CLP per share, and 14 of the 23 models we run sit above the 920.00 CLP price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 242.44 CLP, and 9 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 618.53 CLP (bear) to 1,743 CLP (bull), the price of 920.00 CLP sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vina Concha To reported revenue of 975B CLP in FY2025 versus 837B CLP in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was 67.2B CLP in FY2025, compounding −9.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 680B CLP (≈ $680M) · P/E ratio 11.0 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) 83.51 CLP · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 12%, CONCHATORO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 618.53 CLPFair Value 1,032 CLPBull 1,743 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (27.80 CLP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in CLP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in CLP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 10%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Chile: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vina Concha To Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CONCHATORO
Frequently asked questions
Is Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,032 CLP versus a price of 920.00 CLP, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CONCHATORO?
Our model-based fair value for Vina Concha To is 1,032 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 920.00 CLP.
What is the quality score of CONCHATORO?
Vina Concha To has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,032 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 618.53 CLP, optimistic scenario 1,743 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vina Concha To stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,032 CLP, about +12% upside versus a price of 920.00 CLP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 618.53 CLP, optimistic scenario 1,743 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
Vina Concha To reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 959B CLP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Vina Concha To pay a dividend?
Vina Concha To currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vina Concha To would have to grow free cash flow by +28.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CONCHATORO use?
Our models discount Vina Concha To at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.00, country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vina Concha To that is +28.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vina Concha To grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +28.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vina Concha To (+28.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.42 %: that much free cash flow Vina Concha To produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vina Concha To it is 1,032 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 920.00 CLP. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vina Concha To stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CONCHATORO trades below its calculated fair value: price 920.00 CLP, fair value 1,032 CLP, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CONCHATORO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (920.00 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,032 CLP). For Vina Concha To the two are 111.59 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vina Concha To worth?
The market values Vina Concha To at about 680B CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 920.00 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 1,032 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CONCHATORO?
Our models span a range for Vina Concha To: cautious scenario 618.53 CLP, base 1,032 CLP, optimistic 1,743 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 920.00 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CONCHATORO?
Vina Concha To trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,032 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vina Concha To (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CONCHATORO from its 52-week high?
Vina Concha To trades at 920.00 CLP, about 15% below its 52-week high of 1,081 CLP and 14% above the low of 810.55 CLP (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,032 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vina Concha To?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vina Concha To stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 920.00 CLP, calculated fair value 1,032 CLP (+12%), Quality Score 48/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CONCHATORO calculated?
We run Vina Concha To through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,032 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vina Concha To currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 920.00 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 1,032 CLP, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vina Concha To right now?
The model range is unusually wide (618.53 CLP to 1,743 CLP). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Vina Concha To
How large is the market capitalisation of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
The market capitalisation of Vina Concha To is 680B CLP (≈ $680M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vina Concha To is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
Earnings per share at Vina Concha To are 83.51 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
The dividend yield of Vina Concha To is 4.9% (payout 54.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
The net margin of Vina Concha To is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vina Concha To is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vina Concha To is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
The operating margin of Vina Concha To is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
Revenue at Vina Concha To is growing −7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO)?
Earnings per share at Vina Concha To are growing −36.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vina Concha To (CONCHATORO) carry?
The net debt of Vina Concha To is 418B CLP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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