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Traeger Inc (COOK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Traeger Inc $28.86, price $48.18, upside -40.1%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US89269P1030

TI Traeger Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Traeger Inc

COOK · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $28.86 · Strongly overvalued (−40%)
!Quality 31/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -21.9% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/12)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Insider activity 25/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $25.47 to $98.37
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1,583 $24.42 Fair Value $28.86 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $24.42 – $1,583 · fair‑value band $25.47 – $98.37 · the $48.18 price screens above the $28.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Traeger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, sources, sells, and supports wood pellet fueled barbecue grills and flatrock flat top grills for retailers, distributors, and direct to consumers in the United States and internationally.

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Traeger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, sources, sells, and supports wood pellet fueled barbecue grills and flatrock flat top grills for retailers, distributors, and direct to consumers in the United States and internationally. The company's wood pellet grills are internet of things devices that allow owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through its Traeger app. It also produces a library of digital content, including instructional recipes and videos that demonstrate tips, tricks, and cooking techniques that empower Traeger owners to progress their cooking skills; and short- and long-form branded content highlighting stories, community members, and lifestyle content from the Traegerhood. In addition, the company provides wood pellets that are used to fire the grills; rubs, spices, and sauces; accessories, such as pop-and-lock accessory rail covers, drip trays, bucket liners, storage bins, and shelves; tools to aid in meal prep, cooking, and cleanup, including pellet storage systems, cleaning solutions, barbecue tools, and MEATER smart thermometer; replacement parts; and apparel and merchandise, including t-shirts, hooded sweatshirts, and baseball hats. Traeger, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Stock analysis

Traeger Inc (COOK) currently trades at $48.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.86, implying the stock looks roughly 66.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $91.92 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $48.18 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $10.11, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $25.47 (bear) to $98.37 (bull), the price of $48.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Traeger Inc reported revenue of $560M in FY2025 versus $786M in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$115M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $201M · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) $−42.12 · Net margin −20.6% · Return on equity −49.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.7% · Operating margin 2.3% · Revenue (TTM) $510M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −40%, COOK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $25.47 Fair Value $28.86 Bull $98.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF n/a n/a $30.48 77
Growth DCF n/a n/a $25.94 75
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $47.15 $125.61 72
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a n/a $30.48 77
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $47.15 $125.61 72
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a $10.11 $46.80 65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $34.79 $91.92 $149.05 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $30.71 $41.15 $61.42 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a n/a $25.94 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 41
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.7% (2020) → −0.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.0% a year for the price and −3.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−15.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.9%

COOK screens 67% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −40% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −22% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −34% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.34× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.18× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.39× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 14.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 10.8× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Traeger Inc · Fair Value
$28.86 −67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Traeger Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COOK

Frequently asked questions

Is Traeger Inc (COOK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.86 versus a price of $48.18, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COOK?
Our model-based fair value for Traeger Inc is $28.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.18.
What is the quality score of COOK?
Traeger Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Traeger Inc (COOK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.47, optimistic scenario $98.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Traeger Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.86, about −40% upside versus a price of $48.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $25.47, optimistic scenario $98.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
Traeger Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $510M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Traeger Inc (COOK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Traeger Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +35.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COOK use?
Our models discount Traeger Inc at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Traeger Inc that is +35.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Traeger Inc (COOK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Traeger Inc grew +0.5 % a year. The price currently implies +35.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Traeger Inc (COOK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Traeger Inc (+35.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.59 %: that much free cash flow Traeger Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Traeger Inc it is $28.86 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $48.18. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Traeger Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, COOK trades above its calculated fair value: price $48.18, fair value $28.86, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COOK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.86). For Traeger Inc the two are $19.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Traeger Inc worth?
The market values Traeger Inc at about $201M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $48.18; our models calculate a fair value of $28.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COOK?
Our models span a range for Traeger Inc: cautious scenario $25.47, base $28.86, optimistic $98.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $48.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Traeger Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −49.1%, debt of 2.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COOK from its 52-week high?
Traeger Inc trades at $48.18, about 41% below its 52-week high of $82.00 and 97% above the low of $24.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Traeger Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, King Slide Works Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Traeger Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $48.18, calculated fair value $28.86 (−40%), Quality Score 31/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COOK calculated?
We run Traeger Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Traeger Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $48.18. Our model-based fair value is $28.86, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Traeger Inc right now?
Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($25.47 to $98.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of Traeger Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
The market capitalisation of Traeger Inc is $201M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Traeger Inc is 0.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
Earnings per share at Traeger Inc are $−42.12. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
The net margin of Traeger Inc is −20.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Traeger Inc is −49.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Traeger Inc is −9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Traeger Inc (COOK)?
The operating margin of Traeger Inc is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Traeger Inc (COOK)?
Revenue at Traeger Inc is growing −34.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Traeger Inc (COOK) carry?
The net debt of Traeger Inc is $406M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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