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Cowell Development Tbk (COWL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jul 10, 2026: fair value of Cowell Development Tbk IDR 12, price IDR 50, upside -76.4%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · ID · ISIN ID1000108707

CD Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Cowell Development Tbk

COWL · JK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 11.79 IDR · Strongly overvalued (−76.4%)
!Quality 32/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -14.4% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 12 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

50.00 IDR 50.00 IDR Fair Value 11.79 IDR Jan 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 50.00 IDR – 50.00 IDR · fair‑value band 5.96 IDR – 17.73 IDR · the 50.00 IDR price screens above the 11.79 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

PT Cowell Development Tbk develops, constructs, and sells houses, shop houses, and lots of land in Indonesia. It engages in the projects of apartments, residential and commercial properties, and offices. The company was formerly known as PT Karya Cipta Putra Indonesia and changed its name to PT Cowell Development Tbk in August 2007.

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PT Cowell Development Tbk develops, constructs, and sells houses, shop houses, and lots of land in Indonesia. It engages in the projects of apartments, residential and commercial properties, and offices. The company was formerly known as PT Karya Cipta Putra Indonesia and changed its name to PT Cowell Development Tbk in August 2007. PT Cowell Development Tbk was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Cowell Development Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Gama Nusapala.

Stock analysis

Cowell Development Tbk (COWL) currently trades at 50.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.79 IDR, 76.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: 5.96 IDR (bear) to 17.73 IDR (bull), the price of 50.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Cowell Development Tbk reported revenue of 461B IDR in FY2019 versus 583B IDR in FY2015, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was −960B IDR in FY2019.

Key figures

Market cap 244B IDR (≈ $13.6M) · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) −9.18 IDR · Net margin −14.4% · Return on equity −5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.0% · Operating margin 20.7% · Revenue (TTM) 313B IDR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at −76%, COWL screens richer than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 1
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 1
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
52.5% (2014) → −151.5% (2019)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2019 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

COWL screens overvalued: fair value 76% below the price. Compare with SMPH →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Operations · 36 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −76.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 1.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −14.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 73
FUTURE (revenue growth)12 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 100

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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DMW DMW 4.70 PHP 3.88 PHP −17%
FLI FLI 0.7000 PHP 0.9000 PHP +29%
SLI SLI 1.89 PHP 3.26 PHP +72%
SHNG SHNG 3.03 PHP 7.58 PHP +150%
CLI CLI 1.99 PHP 4.98 PHP +150%

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Cowell Development Tbk · Fair Value
11.79 IDR −76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cowell Development Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COWL

Frequently asked questions

Is Cowell Development Tbk (COWL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.79 IDR versus the last price from Jul 10, 2026 of 50.00 IDR, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COWL?
Our model-based fair value for Cowell Development Tbk is 11.79 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 10, 2026): 50.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of COWL?
Cowell Development Tbk has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11.79 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.96 IDR, optimistic scenario 17.73 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cowell Development Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11.79 IDR, about −76% upside versus the last price from Jul 10, 2026 of 50.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.96 IDR, optimistic scenario 17.73 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
Cowell Development Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 313B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cowell Development Tbk it is 11.79 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 50.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cowell Development Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, COWL trades above its calculated fair value: price 50.00 IDR, fair value 11.79 IDR, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COWL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (50.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11.79 IDR). For Cowell Development Tbk the two are 38.21 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cowell Development Tbk worth?
The market values Cowell Development Tbk at about 244B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 50.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 11.79 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COWL?
Our models span a range for Cowell Development Tbk: cautious scenario 5.96 IDR, base 11.79 IDR, optimistic 17.73 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 50.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cowell Development Tbk (as of Sep 13, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COWL from its 52-week high?
Cowell Development Tbk trades at 50.00 IDR, at its 52-week high of 50.00 IDR and at the low of 50.00 IDR (as of Jul 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11.79 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cowell Development Tbk?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value SMPH, AC, ALI, MEG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cowell Development Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 50.00 IDR, calculated fair value 11.79 IDR (−76%), Quality Score 32/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COWL calculated?
We run Cowell Development Tbk through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11.79 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Cowell Development Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 10, 2026 and stands at 50.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 11.79 IDR, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cowell Development Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (17.73 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (5.96 IDR to 17.73 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Cowell Development Tbk

How large is the market capitalisation of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
The market capitalisation of Cowell Development Tbk is 244B IDR (≈ $13.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cowell Development Tbk is 0.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
Earnings per share at Cowell Development Tbk are −9.18 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
The net margin of Cowell Development Tbk is −14.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cowell Development Tbk is −5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cowell Development Tbk is −2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
The operating margin of Cowell Development Tbk is 20.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cowell Development Tbk (COWL)?
Revenue at Cowell Development Tbk is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Cowell Development Tbk (COWL) generate?
The free cash flow of Cowell Development Tbk is −21.6B IDR (fiscal year 2019). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cowell Development Tbk (COWL) carry?
The net debt of Cowell Development Tbk is 1.7T IDR (fiscal year 2019). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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