PT Cowell Development Tbk (COWL) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · ID · Market cap 244B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (37.42 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (7.32 IDR to 37.42 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 50.00 IDR – 50.00 IDR · fair‑value band 7.32 IDR – 37.42 IDR · the 50.00 IDR price screens above the 18.24 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
PT Cowell Development Tbk (COWL) currently trades at 50.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.24 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 63.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Cowell Development Tbk generated revenue of 313B IDR at a net margin of -14.4%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.0%. Net debt stands at 1.7T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 7.32 IDR (bear case) to 37.42 IDR (bull case); at 50.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 62% fair-value upside, at -64%, COWL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Cowell Development Tbk develops, constructs, and sells houses, shop houses, and lots of land in Indonesia. It engages in the projects of apartments, residential and commercial properties, and offices. The company was formerly known as PT Karya Cipta Putra Indonesia and changed its name to PT Cowell Development Tbk in August 2007.
Full company description
PT Cowell Development Tbk develops, constructs, and sells houses, shop houses, and lots of land in Indonesia. It engages in the projects of apartments, residential and commercial properties, and offices. The company was formerly known as PT Karya Cipta Putra Indonesia and changed its name to PT Cowell Development Tbk in August 2007. PT Cowell Development Tbk was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Cowell Development Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Gama Nusapala.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2015 – FY2019 · reported fiscal years
PT Cowell Development Tbk reported revenue of 461B IDR in FY2019 versus 583B IDR in FY2015, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was −960B IDR in FY2019.
COWL screens 64% overvalued. Compare with SMPH →
Peer Group
Real Estate Operations · 38 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMPH SMPH | 18.24 PHP | 17.53 PHP | -4% |
| ALI ALI | 16.00 PHP | 19.27 PHP | +20% |
| RLC RLC | 16.34 PHP | 40.85 PHP | +150% |
| DDPR DDPR | 93.00 PHP | 112.27 PHP | +21% |
| ALLHC ALLHC | 1.16 PHP | 0.7200 PHP | -38% |
| DMW DMW | 5.00 PHP | 5.83 PHP | +17% |
| FLI FLI | 0.7000 PHP | 1.75 PHP | +150% |
| SLI SLI | 2.08 PHP | 5.20 PHP | +150% |
| PT Rimo International Lestari Tbk RIMO | 50.00 IDR | 80.85 IDR | +62% |
| BEL BEL | 1.21 PHP | 3.03 PHP | +150% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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