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Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited $3.95, price $1.86, upside +112.4%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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CP
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited
CPCAF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $3.95 · Strongly undervalued (+112.4%)
✓Quality 61/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +20.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 48/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.5714 – $1.95 · fair‑value band $2.89 – $5.59 · the $1.86 price screens below the $3.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited, together with its subsidiaries, offers international passenger and air cargo transportation services. The company provides airline operations, including catering, cargo terminal operations, ground handling services, and commercial laundry operations, as well as scheduled services.
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Cathay Pacific Airways Limited, together with its subsidiaries, offers international passenger and air cargo transportation services. The company provides airline operations, including catering, cargo terminal operations, ground handling services, and commercial laundry operations, as well as scheduled services. The company operates in the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, the Americas, the Southeast Asia and the Oceania, Europe, the South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. As of 31st December 2025, it operates 237 aircraft and 103 new passenger and freighter aircraft. Cathay Pacific Airways Limited was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Lantau Island, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF) currently trades at $1.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.95, implying the stock looks roughly 52.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.31 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1.86 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.8400, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.89 (bear) to $5.59 (bull), the price of $1.86 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited reported revenue of HK$117B in FY2025 versus HK$45.6B in FY2021, a compound +26.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$10.8B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $12.5B · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 19.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% · Operating margin 13.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at 112%, CPCAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.89
Fair Value $3.95
Bull $5.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.01
$6.36
$9.86
79
Growth DCF
$4.06
$6.11
$8.95
78
Owner Earnings
$3.36
$5.36
$8.33
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.01
$6.36
$9.86
79
Owner Earnings
$3.36
$5.36
$8.33
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.90
$4.55
$6.64
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$4.31
$7.22
$10.63
74
5Y P/E Exit
$3.30
$5.31
$7.41
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.19
$4.79
$6.90
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$4.15
$6.61
$9.90
68
10Y P/E Exit
$3.52
$5.30
$7.48
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.54
$5.04
$6.74
64
Lynch FV
$1.13
$1.62
$2.10
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.13
$1.62
$2.10
57
EPV
$2.11
$2.49
$2.81
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.8300
$1.65
$2.49
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.8300
$1.37
$1.74
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.57
$4.76
$5.96
63
P/S Multiple
$2.89
$3.86
$4.82
58
P/B Multiple
$2.89
$3.86
$4.82
55
EV/EBIT
$3.47
$4.72
$5.98
66
EV/EBITDA
$5.06
$6.84
$8.62
67
EV/Revenue
$2.39
$3.54
$4.69
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.6300
$0.8400
$1.26
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.06
$6.11
$8.95
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.90
$4.58
$6.56
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.40
$1.78
$2.73
74
ROIC Compounder
$2.27
$2.94
$3.74
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$3.01
$4.29
$5.58
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Profitability
45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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’21
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+33.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.33.9% vs 4.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−39% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.6%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.8% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.5%
Watch CPCAF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- Cathay Pacific's profit soars 71% despite Iran war driving up fuel costs
- Cathay Pacific Sees Up to HK$6.5B Profit as Shares Jump 3%
- Cathay Pacific halts restart of Mideast cargo flights as war reignites
- China's Big Three Airlines Trail Cathay by Nearly 50 Percentage Points
Compare Cathay Pacific Airways Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.13 | $121.83 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $111.51 | $149.61 | +34% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €23.79 | €48.63 | +104% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $42.28 | $14.74 | −65% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹4,940 | ₹3,073 | −38% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 6.65 SGD | 7.88 SGD | +18% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.45 | $106.79 | +104% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.86 | ¥2.78 | −43% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.60 | €9.90 | +30% |
| Qantas Airways Limited QAN | A$8.93 | A$9.69 | +9% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.95 versus a price of $1.86, about +112% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CPCAF?
Our model-based fair value for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is $3.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.86.
What is the quality score of CPCAF?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.89, optimistic scenario $5.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cathay Pacific Airways Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.95, about +112% upside versus a price of $1.86 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.89, optimistic scenario $5.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$117B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cathay Pacific Airways Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -10.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPCAF use?
Our models discount Cathay Pacific Airways Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cathay Pacific Airways Limited that is -10.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited grew +20.0 % a year. The price currently implies -10.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (-10.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.23 %: that much free cash flow Cathay Pacific Airways Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cathay Pacific Airways Limited it is $3.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.86. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CPCAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.86, fair value $3.95, a gap of about +112% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPCAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.95). For Cathay Pacific Airways Limited the two are $2.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited worth?
The market values Cathay Pacific Airways Limited at about $12.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.86; our models calculate a fair value of $3.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPCAF?
Our models span a range for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited: cautious scenario $2.89, base $3.95, optimistic $5.59 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPCAF?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CPCAF?
The PEG ratio of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 3.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 19.2%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPCAF from its 52-week high?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited trades at $1.86, about 5% below its 52-week high of $1.95 and 52% above the low of $1.22 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cathay Pacific Airways Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.86, calculated fair value $3.95 (+112%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPCAF calculated?
We run Cathay Pacific Airways Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Cathay Pacific Airways Limited currently trades 53 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.86. Our model-based fair value is $3.95, about +112% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cathay Pacific Airways Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($2.89 to $5.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
The market capitalisation of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is $12.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 0.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
Earnings per share at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
The net margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
The operating margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
Revenue at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF)?
Earnings per share at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited are growing +23.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAF) carry?
The net debt of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is HK$50.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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