Canterbury Park Holding (CPHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $80.6M
Canterbury Park Holding
CPHC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $12.06 to $11.85 (−1.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −2.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.54 – $31.15 · fair‑value band $9.65 – $14.05 · the $15.55 price screens above the $11.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Canterbury Park Holding (CPHC) currently trades at $15.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.85, implying the stock looks roughly 23.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Canterbury Park Holding generated revenue of $59.9M at a net margin of -0.1%. Revenue grew 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $15.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.65 (bear case) to $14.05 (bull case); at $15.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -24%, CPHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($12.06) versus Dividend Discount ($2.52). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in horse racing, casino, food and beverage, and real estate development businesses. The company operates year-round simulcasting of horse races, as well as wagering on live thoroughbred and quarter horse races on a seasonal basis.
Full company description
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in horse racing, casino, food and beverage, and real estate development businesses. The company operates year-round simulcasting of horse races, as well as wagering on live thoroughbred and quarter horse races on a seasonal basis. It offers unbanked card games, such as poker and table games. In addition, the company is involved in the operation of concession stands, restaurants and buffets, bars, and other food venues; café style restaurants and full-service bars within the Casino and simulcast area; lounge services along with a buffet restaurant; various concession style food and beverages during live racing; and catering and events services. Further, it engages in development opportunities, such as residential development, office, restaurants, hotel, entertainment, and retail operations. The company is also involved in the related services and activities, such as parking, advertising signage, publication sales, and other entertainment events and activities. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Shakopee, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Canterbury Park Holding reported revenue of $59.6M in FY2025 versus $60.4M in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$529K in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CPHC screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6200 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +11% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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