Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation $11.77, price $15.78, upside -25.4%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.97 – $31.01 · fair‑value band $9.59 – $13.96 · the $15.78 price screens above the $11.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Canterbury Park Holding Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in horse racing, casino, food and beverage, and real estate development businesses. The company operates year-round simulcasting of horse races, as well as wagering on live thoroughbred and quarter horse races on a seasonal basis.
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Canterbury Park Holding Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in horse racing, casino, food and beverage, and real estate development businesses. The company operates year-round simulcasting of horse races, as well as wagering on live thoroughbred and quarter horse races on a seasonal basis. It offers unbanked card games, such as poker and table games. In addition, the company is involved in the operation of concession stands, restaurants and buffets, bars, and other food venues; café style restaurants and full-service bars within the Casino and simulcast area; lounge services along with a buffet restaurant; various concession style food and beverages during live racing; and catering and events services. Further, it engages in development opportunities, such as residential development, office, restaurants, hotel, entertainment, and retail operations. The company is also involved in the related services and activities, such as parking, advertising signage, publication sales, and other entertainment events and activities. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Shakopee, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC) currently trades at $15.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.77, implying the stock looks roughly 34.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $13.53 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $15.78 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.51, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.59 (bear) to $13.96 (bull), the price of $15.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation reported revenue of $59.6M in FY2025 versus $60.4M in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$529K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $81.3M · P/E ratio 789.0 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin −0.9% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at −25%, CPHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.59Fair Value $11.77Bull $13.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.9% (2020) → 4.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.3% a year for the price.
Compare Canterbury Park Holding Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−25% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)789.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.97× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.35× · Pricier than median
P/FCF17.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)16· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Canterbury Park Holding Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPHC
Frequently asked questions
Is Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.77 versus a price of $15.78, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CPHC?
Our model-based fair value for Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is $11.77 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.78.
What is the quality score of CPHC?
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.77 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.59, optimistic scenario $13.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Canterbury Park Holding Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.77, about −25% upside versus a price of $15.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.59, optimistic scenario $13.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $60.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Canterbury Park Holding Corporation pay a dividend?
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Canterbury Park Holding Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPHC use?
Our models discount Canterbury Park Holding Corporation at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Canterbury Park Holding Corporation that is +8.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Canterbury Park Holding Corporation grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (+8.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.80 %: that much free cash flow Canterbury Park Holding Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Canterbury Park Holding Corporation it is $11.77 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $15.78. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Canterbury Park Holding Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CPHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.78, fair value $11.77, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.77). For Canterbury Park Holding Corporation the two are $4.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Canterbury Park Holding Corporation worth?
The market values Canterbury Park Holding Corporation at about $81.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $15.78; our models calculate a fair value of $11.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPHC?
Our models span a range for Canterbury Park Holding Corporation: cautious scenario $9.59, base $11.77, optimistic $13.96 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $15.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPHC from its 52-week high?
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation trades at $15.78, about 6% below its 52-week high of $16.77 and 10% above the low of $14.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Canterbury Park Holding Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Canterbury Park Holding Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $15.78, calculated fair value $11.77 (−25%), Quality Score 44/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPHC calculated?
We run Canterbury Park Holding Corporation through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Canterbury Park Holding Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $15.78. Our model-based fair value is $11.77, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Canterbury Park Holding Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC) come from?
Earnings per share at Canterbury Park Holding Corporation grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin +4.1 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The market capitalisation of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is $81.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is 789.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is 1.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
Earnings per share at Canterbury Park Holding Corporation are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 789.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The dividend yield of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is 1.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The net margin of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is −0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
The operating margin of Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
Revenue at Canterbury Park Holding Corporation is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC)?
Earnings per share at Canterbury Park Holding Corporation are growing −75.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC) hold?
Canterbury Park Holding Corporation holds more cash than debt, $15.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026