CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) (CPNREIT) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · TH · Market cap 47.4B THB

A solid business, but screening 10% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A fairly wide model range (9.20 THB to 19.46 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 7.90 THB – 17.76 THB · fair‑value band 9.20 THB – 19.46 THB · the 13.70 THB price screens above the 12.28 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) (CPNREIT) currently trades at 13.70 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12.28 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 10.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) generated revenue of 6.7B THB at a net margin of 50.5%. Revenue grew 14.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at 59.5B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 9.20 THB (bear case) to 19.46 THB (bull case); at 13.70 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -10%, CPNREIT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (33.46 THB) versus Asset-Based (7.82 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) was established on 1 December 2017 from the conversion from CPN Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund (CPNRF). The trust units of CPNREIT were first traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on 14 December 2017.

Full company description

CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) was established on 1 December 2017 from the conversion from CPN Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund (CPNRF). The trust units of CPNREIT were first traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on 14 December 2017. At the end of 3Q25, CPNREIT had been investing in leasehold rights of seven shopping malls, which are Central Rama 2, Central Rama 3, Central Pinklao, Central Chiangmai Airport, Central Pattaya, Central Marina and Central Lampang with total leasable area of 263,214 sq.m., four office buildings namely Pinklao Tower A and Tower B, The Ninth Towers and Unilever House with total leasable area of 112,482 sq.m., and one hotel which is Hilton Pattaya totaling 304 guest rooms. On 31 July 2023, the Extraordinary General Meeting of the Trust Unitholders No. 1/2023 (EGM No. 1/2023) approved the lease renewal of Central Pinklao for a period of 15 years (from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2039) with the investment value of not exceeding Baht 12,161 million, together with the renovation of Central Pinklao during 2024 and 2025, with the budget of not more than Baht 1,100 million, and the change of lease payment of Central Rama 2 (Renewal Period) from a lump sum payment in 2025 to be the instalments throughout the lease term, provided that the first payment will be equal to the rental fee for the first 10-year lease period of not exceeding Baht 12,853 million. On 8 May 2024, CPNREIT successfully executed its capital increase plan for the contracts of Central Pinklao project for another 15 years from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2039. On August 15, 2025, CPNREIT borrowed from financial institutions to pay for the lease of Central Rama 2 (Renewal Period) and the additional leasable area for the first 10-year lease period (16 August 2025-15 August 2035), so CPNREIT invested 100% in the leasable area of Central Rama 2. CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT was established on August, 11 2005 and incorporated in Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) reported revenue of 6.4B THB in FY2025 versus 3.5B THB in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B THB in FY2025.

CPNREIT screens 10% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →

Peer Group

REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.