CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT stock THB 9.61, price THB 13.20, that is 27.2% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7.94 THB – 18.05 THB · fair‑value band 7.31 THB – 15.62 THB · the 13.20 THB price screens above the 9.61 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) was established on 1 December 2017 from the conversion from CPN Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund (CPNRF). The trust units of CPNREIT were first traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on 14 December 2017.
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At the end of 3Q25, CPNREIT had been investing in leasehold rights of seven shopping malls, which are Central Rama 2, Central Rama 3, Central Pinklao, Central Chiangmai Airport, Central Pattaya, Central Marina and Central Lampang with total leasable area of 263,214 sq.m., four office buildings namely Pinklao Tower A and Tower B, The Ninth Towers and Unilever House with total leasable area of 112,482 sq.m., and one hotel which is Hilton Pattaya totaling 304 guest rooms.
On 31 July 2023, the Extraordinary General Meeting of the Trust Unitholders No. 1/2023 (EGM No. 1/2023) approved the lease renewal of Central Pinklao for a period of 15 years (from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2039) with the investment value of not exceeding Baht 12,161 million, together with the renovation of Central Pinklao during 2024 and 2025, with the budget of not more than Baht 1,100 million, and the change of lease payment of Central Rama 2 (Renewal Period) from a lump sum payment in 2025 to be the instalments throughout the lease term, provided that the first payment will be equal to the rental fee for the first 10-year lease period of not exceeding Baht 12,853 million.
On 8 May 2024, CPNREIT successfully executed its capital increase plan for the contracts of Central Pinklao project for another 15 years from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2039.
On August 15, 2025, CPNREIT borrowed from financial institutions to pay for the lease of Central Rama 2 (Renewal Period) and the additional leasable area for the first 10-year lease period (16 August 2025-15 August 2035), so CPNREIT invested 100% in the leasable area of Central Rama 2. CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT was established on August, 11 2005 and incorporated in Thailand.
Stock analysis
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) currently trades at 13.20 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9.61 THB, 27% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 12.91 THB per share, and 2 of the 11 models we run sit above the 13.20 THB price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 7.82 THB, and 9 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 7.31 THB (bear) to 15.62 THB (bull), the price of 13.20 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT reported revenue of 6.4B THB in FY2025 versus 3.5B THB in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B THB in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 47.8B THB (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 6.92 · EPS (TTM) 0.9500 THB · Dividend yield 8.4% · Net margin 49.8% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −27%, CPNREIT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear7.31 THBFair Value 9.61 THBBull15.62 THB
Price 13.20 THB · Downside -27.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’13
’14
’15
’16
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.4%
Per share before 2020divided by the spin-off factor 1.0491
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.9% vs −3.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.80% → 73%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.8% a year for the price and +4.5% for the forecasts.
Compare CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 138 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside−27.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.2% · Above median
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)49.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)75.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)8.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.13× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.92× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA13.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.37× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)80· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 77
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 9.61 THB versus a price of 13.20 THB, about 27% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CPNREIT?
Our model-based fair value for CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 9.61 THB (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.20 THB.
What is the quality score of CPNREIT?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 9.61 THB (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7.31 THB, optimistic scenario 15.62 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 9.61 THB, about 27% lower versus a price of 13.20 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7.31 THB, optimistic scenario 15.62 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.9B THB (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT pay a dividend?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT currently shows a dividend yield of 8.44% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT pays a dividend of 1.11 THB per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2018. The payout ratio is 164% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 117%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.16 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT would have to grow free cash flow by +11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPNREIT use?
Our models discount CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT that is +11.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +11.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (+11.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.83 %: that much free cash flow CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT it is 9.61 THB per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 13.20 THB. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CPNREIT trades above its calculated fair value: price 13.20 THB, fair value 9.61 THB, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPNREIT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.20 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (9.61 THB). For CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT the two are 3.59 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT worth?
The market values CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT at about 47.8B THB (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 13.20 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 9.61 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPNREIT?
Our models span a range for CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT: cautious scenario 7.31 THB, base 9.61 THB, optimistic 15.62 THB per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 13.20 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPNREIT?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 9.61 THB is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.4 (reported for FY2025: 13.8). Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.1, P/S 6.9, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CPNREIT?
The PEG ratio of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Balance-sheet figures for CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPNREIT from its 52-week high?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT trades at 13.20 THB, about 2% below its 52-week high of 13.51 THB and 32% above the low of 10.00 THB (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 9.61 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Stockland, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 13.20 THB, calculated fair value 9.61 THB (−27%), Quality Score 56/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPNREIT calculated?
We run CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT through 11 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 9.61 THB builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 13.20 THB. Our model-based fair value is 9.61 THB, about 27% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (7.31 THB to 15.62 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The market capitalisation of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 47.8B THB (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 6.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Earnings per share at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT are 0.9500 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The dividend yield of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 8.4% (payout 164%, on adjusted earnings, reported 117%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The net margin of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 49.8% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2025 38.4%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The operating margin of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 75.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Revenue at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Earnings per share at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT are growing +9.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) carry?
The net debt of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 59.5B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026