CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT THB 21.90, price THB 13.30, upside +64.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7.94 THB – 18.05 THB · fair‑value band 9.13 THB – 29.27 THB · the 13.30 THB price screens below the 21.90 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) was established on 1 December 2017 from the conversion from CPN Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund (CPNRF). The trust units of CPNREIT were first traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on 14 December 2017.
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CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) was established on 1 December 2017 from the conversion from CPN Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund (CPNRF). The trust units of CPNREIT were first traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on 14 December 2017. At the end of 3Q25, CPNREIT had been investing in leasehold rights of seven shopping malls, which are Central Rama 2, Central Rama 3, Central Pinklao, Central Chiangmai Airport, Central Pattaya, Central Marina and Central Lampang with total leasable area of 263,214 sq.m., four office buildings namely Pinklao Tower A and Tower B, The Ninth Towers and Unilever House with total leasable area of 112,482 sq.m., and one hotel which is Hilton Pattaya totaling 304 guest rooms. On 31 July 2023, the Extraordinary General Meeting of the Trust Unitholders No. 1/2023 (EGM No. 1/2023) approved the lease renewal of Central Pinklao for a period of 15 years (from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2039) with the investment value of not exceeding Baht 12,161 million, together with the renovation of Central Pinklao during 2024 and 2025, with the budget of not more than Baht 1,100 million, and the change of lease payment of Central Rama 2 (Renewal Period) from a lump sum payment in 2025 to be the instalments throughout the lease term, provided that the first payment will be equal to the rental fee for the first 10-year lease period of not exceeding Baht 12,853 million. On 8 May 2024, CPNREIT successfully executed its capital increase plan for the contracts of Central Pinklao project for another 15 years from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2039. On August 15, 2025, CPNREIT borrowed from financial institutions to pay for the lease of Central Rama 2 (Renewal Period) and the additional leasable area for the first 10-year lease period (16 August 2025-15 August 2035), so CPNREIT invested 100% in the leasable area of Central Rama 2. CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT was established on August, 11 2005 and incorporated in Thailand.
Stock analysis
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) currently trades at 13.30 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 21.90 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 39.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 28.13 THB per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the 13.30 THB price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 7.82 THB, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 9.13 THB (bear) to 29.27 THB (bull), the price of 13.30 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT reported revenue of 6.4B THB in FY2025 versus 3.5B THB in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B THB in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 48.2B THB (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 7.53 · EPS (TTM) 0.9500 THB · Dividend yield 8.4% · Net margin 53.8% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 65%, CPNREIT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 9.13 THBFair Value 21.90 THBBull 29.27 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.80% → 73%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
Compare CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+65% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)50% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)75% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 21.90 THB versus a price of 13.30 THB, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CPNREIT?
Our model-based fair value for CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 21.90 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.30 THB.
What is the quality score of CPNREIT?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 21.90 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 9.13 THB, optimistic scenario 29.27 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 21.90 THB, about +65% upside versus a price of 13.30 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 9.13 THB, optimistic scenario 29.27 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.9B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT pay a dividend?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT would have to grow free cash flow by +11.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPNREIT use?
Our models discount CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT that is +11.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +11.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (+11.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.76 %: that much free cash flow CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT it is 21.90 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 13.30 THB. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CPNREIT trades below its calculated fair value: price 13.30 THB, fair value 21.90 THB, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPNREIT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.30 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (21.90 THB). For CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT the two are 8.60 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT worth?
The market values CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT at about 48.2B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 13.30 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 21.90 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPNREIT?
Our models span a range for CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT: cautious scenario 9.13 THB, base 21.90 THB, optimistic 29.27 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 13.30 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPNREIT?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 21.90 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.1, P/S 7.0, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CPNREIT?
The PEG ratio of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Balance-sheet figures for CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPNREIT from its 52-week high?
CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT trades at 13.30 THB, about 2% below its 52-week high of 13.51 THB and 33% above the low of 10.00 THB (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 21.90 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 13.30 THB, calculated fair value 21.90 THB (+65%), Quality Score 54/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPNREIT calculated?
We run CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 21.90 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 13.30 THB. Our model-based fair value is 21.90 THB, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT right now?
The model range is unusually wide (9.13 THB to 29.27 THB). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The market capitalisation of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 48.2B THB (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 7.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Earnings per share at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT are 0.9500 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The dividend yield of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 8.4% (payout 117%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The net margin of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 53.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
The operating margin of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 75.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Revenue at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT)?
Earnings per share at CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT are growing +9.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT) carry?
The net debt of CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is 59.5B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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