Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 170M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −4.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.2400). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.6390 – £3.78 · fair‑value band £0.1400 – £0.2400 · the £0.6630 price screens above the £0.1900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) currently trades at £0.6630, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.1900, implying the stock looks roughly 71.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Crest Nicholson Holdings generated revenue of £611M at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.3%. Net debt stands at £48.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.1400 (bear case) to £0.2400 (bull case); at £0.6630, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at -71%, CRST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (£1.87) versus Earnings-Based (£0.0700). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Crest Nicholson Holdings plc engages in building residential homes in the United Kingdom. It develops and sells apartments, houses, and commercial properties. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Addlestone, United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Crest Nicholson Holdings reported revenue of £611M in FY2025 versus £787M in FY2021, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was £2.2M in FY2025, compounding −58.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −2.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CRST screens 71% overvalued. Compare with D.R. Horton, Inc →
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
Compare Crest Nicholson Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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