Capstone Copper Corp (CSC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$9.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +19.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$9.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$3.54 to A$9.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
28‑month range A$6.17 – A$17.54 · fair‑value band A$3.54 – A$9.09 · the A$15.55 price screens above the A$7.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Capstone Copper Corp (CSC) currently trades at A$15.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.28, implying the stock looks roughly 53.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Capstone Copper Corp generated revenue of A$2.5B at a net margin of 17.2%. Revenue grew 22.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.5%. Net debt stands at A$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.54 (bear case) to A$9.09 (bull case); at A$15.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -53%, CSC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$11.37) versus Growth DCF (A$1.52). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Capstone Copper Corp., a copper mining company, mines, explores for, and develops mineral properties in the United States, Chile, and Mexico. The company primarily explores copper, silver, gold, molybdenum, zinc, iron, cobalt, and other base metals. Capstone Copper Corp. is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Capstone Copper Corp reported revenue of A$2.4B in FY2025 versus A$795M in FY2021, a compound +32.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$327M in FY2025, compounding +9.6%/yr from FY2021.
CSC screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Capstone Copper Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- Capstone Copper to Release Second Quarter Results on July 30, 2026
- Capstone Copper Publishes 2025 Sustainability Report
- Capstone Copper Announces Labour Agreements at Mantos Blancos Operation
Peer Group
Copper · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
| Hindustan Copper Limited HINDCOPPER | ₹486.15 | ₹158.42 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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