Constellium SE (CSTM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.8B
Constellium SE
CSTM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $19.28 to $18.49 (−4.1%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($11.68 to $41.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.70 – $36.15 · fair‑value band $11.68 – $41.89 · the $29.44 price screens above the $18.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Constellium SE (CSTM) currently trades at $29.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.49, implying the stock looks roughly 37.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Constellium SE generated revenue of $8.9B at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 24.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 45.7%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.68 (bear case) to $41.89 (bull case); at $29.44, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 132% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -37%, CSTM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($34.09) versus Asset-Based ($4.68). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Constellium SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of rolled and extruded aluminum products for the aerospace, packaging, automotive, commercial transportation, general industrial, and defense end-markets.
Full company description
Constellium SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of rolled and extruded aluminum products for the aerospace, packaging, automotive, commercial transportation, general industrial, and defense end-markets. It operates through three segments: Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, Aerospace & Transportation, and Automotive Structures & Industry. The Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment produces and develops rolled aluminum products, including canstock and closure stock for the beverage and food industry, as well as foil stock for the flexible packaging market. This segment also supplies automotive body sheets, heat exchangers, and battery foil products for the automotive market. The Aerospace & Transportation segment provides aluminum products including plate, sheet, and extrusions to aerospace, space, commercial transportation, general industrial, and defense sectors. The Automotive Structures & Industry segment offers structural solutions for the automotive industry including crash management systems, body structures, side impact beams, and battery enclosure components; soft and hard alloy extrusions for automotive, transportation, and general industrial applications; and profiles for rail and general industrial applications. This segment also provides downstream technology and services, which include pre-machining, surface treatment, research and development, and technical support services. It sells its products directly or through distributors in France, Germany, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States, as well as South Korea, Japan and China. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Constellium SE reported revenue of $8.4B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was $273M in FY2025, compounding +1.5%/yr from FY2021.
CSTM screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- CSTM Q2 Earnings Call Flags Stronger 2026 Outlook
- Constellium vs. Ryerson: Which Stock Has More Upside Potential Now?
- Constellium (CSTM) Could Be 16% Below Fair Value On Record EBITDA And Higher Outlook
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 54/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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