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CITIC Limited (CTPCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CITIC Limited $2.90, price $1.45, upside +100.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Some data
Sep 29, 2026
CITIC Limited
CTPCF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $2.90 · Strongly undervalued (+100.0%)
!Quality 45/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 47/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0046 – $1.80 · fair‑value band $2.74 – $4.71 · the $1.45 price screens below the $2.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
CITIC Limited operates in the financial services, advanced intelligent manufacturing, advanced materials, consumption, and urbanization businesses in the Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The Comprehensive Financial Services segment provides banking, securities, trust, insurance, and asset management services.
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CITIC Limited operates in the financial services, advanced intelligent manufacturing, advanced materials, consumption, and urbanization businesses in the Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The Comprehensive Financial Services segment provides banking, securities, trust, insurance, and asset management services. The Advanced Intelligent Manufacturing segment manufactures heavy machineries, specialized robotics, aluminium wheels, aluminium casting parts, and other products. The Advanced Materials segment includes exploration, processing, and trading of resources and energy products comprising iron ore, copper, and crude oil, as well as manufactures special steels. The New Consumption segment consists of motor, food and consumer products business, telecommunication services, publication services, modern agriculture services, and others. The New-Type Urbanisation segment develops, holds, and sells properties; and provides contracting and design services, as well as infrastructure, environmental, and commercial aviation services. It provides securities, trust, financial, and securities related services; and consumer finance, resources, energy conservation and environmental protection, and engineering contracting services, as well as real estate development and management; and insurance and reinsurance services. The company was formerly known as CITIC Pacific Limited and changed its name to CITIC Limited in August 2014. CITIC Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. CITIC Limited operates as a subsidiary of CITIC Group Corporation.
Stock analysis
CITIC Limited (CTPCF) currently trades at $1.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.90, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $5.56 per share, and 8 of the 9 models we run sit above the $1.45 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $1.08, and 1 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.74 (bear) to $4.71 (bull), the price of $1.45 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CITIC Limited reported revenue of 834B CNY in FY2025 versus 905B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was 63.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $52.4B · P/E ratio 4.8 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) $0.3000 · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 29.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 100%, CTPCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.74
Fair Value $2.90
Bull $4.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$3.65
$3.86
$4.30
76
Owner Earnings
n/a
n/a
$5.33
73
5Y P/E Exit
n/a
$1.08
>$4.32
68
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
n/a
n/a
$5.33
73
5Y P/E Exit
n/a
$1.08
>$4.32
68
10Y P/E Exit
n/a
n/a
$5.39
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.22
$12.77
$17.76
63
Lynch FV
$3.60
$5.14
$6.68
61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.8300
$1.73
$2.74
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.8300
$1.46
$1.82
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$5.15
$6.86
$8.58
63
P/B Multiple
$4.17
$5.56
$6.94
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.24
$3.00
$4.47
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.65
$3.86
$4.30
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Profitability
20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
’14
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’17
’18
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’21
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.4% vs 3.1%, steady
Profit margin 1997 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+53.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +51.0% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%
Watch CTPCF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (25 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- CITIC (SEHK:267) Builds Momentum, Is It Still Below Fair Value?
- CITIC Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- China's DeepSeek steps closer to IPO listing with CITIC Securities - report
- Ball Mill for Mining Industry Report 2026-2035: A $6.23 Billion Market by 2030 with Metso, FLSmidth & Co, CITIC, ThyssenKrupp, KHD Humbo
Compare CITIC Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 362 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| SK Inc 034730 | 611,000 KRW | 348,688 KRW | −43% |
| Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 | $55.36 | $78.34 | +42% |
| Keppel Ltd BN4 | 11.30 SGD | 3.88 SGD | −66% |
| Kingdom Holding 4280 | 13.08 SAR | 13.40 SAR | +2% |
| Koç Holding KCHOL | 216.50 TRY | 182.26 TRY | −16% |
| Aker ASA AKER | kr 1,396 | kr 1,017 | −27% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is CITIC Limited (CTPCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.90 versus a price of $1.45, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTPCF?
Our model-based fair value for CITIC Limited is $2.90 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.45.
What is the quality score of CTPCF?
CITIC Limited has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.90 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.74, optimistic scenario $4.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CITIC Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.90, about +100% upside versus a price of $1.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.74, optimistic scenario $4.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
CITIC Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 945B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CITIC Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +53.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTPCF use?
Our models discount CITIC Limited at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CITIC Limited that is +53.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CITIC Limited (CTPCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CITIC Limited grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +53.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CITIC Limited (CTPCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CITIC Limited (+53.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow CITIC Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CITIC Limited it is $2.90 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $1.45. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CITIC Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CTPCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.45, fair value $2.90, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTPCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.90). For CITIC Limited the two are $1.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CITIC Limited worth?
The market values CITIC Limited at about $52.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $1.45; our models calculate a fair value of $2.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTPCF?
Our models span a range for CITIC Limited: cautious scenario $2.74, base $2.90, optimistic $4.71 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $1.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTPCF?
CITIC Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for CITIC Limited (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 2.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTPCF from its 52-week high?
CITIC Limited trades at $1.45, about 19% below its 52-week high of $1.80 and 7% above the low of $1.35 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CITIC Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, CK Hutchison Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CITIC Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $1.45, calculated fair value $2.90 (+100%), Quality Score 45/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTPCF calculated?
We run CITIC Limited through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CITIC Limited currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.45. Our model-based fair value is $2.90, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CITIC Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.74). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of CITIC Limited (CTPCF) come from?
Earnings per share at CITIC Limited grew +4.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin −6.5 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CITIC Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
The market capitalisation of CITIC Limited is $52.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CITIC Limited is 0.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
Earnings per share at CITIC Limited are $0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
The net margin of CITIC Limited is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CITIC Limited is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CITIC Limited is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
The operating margin of CITIC Limited is 29.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
Revenue at CITIC Limited is growing −1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CITIC Limited (CTPCF)?
Earnings per share at CITIC Limited are growing −25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CITIC Limited (CTPCF) carry?
The net debt of CITIC Limited is 2.0T CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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