CITIC Limited (CTPCY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $48.8B
CITIC Limited
CTPCY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $9.54 to $6.41 (−32.8%) since Jul 26, 2026. Share price +12.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.39 – $8.71 · fair‑value band $4.81 – $6.41 · the $7.51 price screens above the $6.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
CITIC Limited (CTPCY) currently trades at $7.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.41, implying the stock looks roughly 14.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, CITIC Limited generated revenue of $945B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 1.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $1.8T. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.81 (bear case) to $6.41 (bull case); at $7.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -15%, CTPCY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($166.88) versus Dividend Discount ($43.85). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CITIC Limited operates in the financial services, advanced intelligent manufacturing, advanced materials, consumption, and urbanization businesses in the Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The Comprehensive Financial Services segment provides banking, securities, trust, insurance, and asset management services.
Full company description
CITIC Limited operates in the financial services, advanced intelligent manufacturing, advanced materials, consumption, and urbanization businesses in the Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The Comprehensive Financial Services segment provides banking, securities, trust, insurance, and asset management services. The Advanced Intelligent Manufacturing segment manufactures heavy machineries, specialized robotics, aluminium wheels, aluminium casting parts, and other products. The Advanced Materials segment includes exploration, processing, and trading of resources and energy products comprising iron ore, copper, and crude oil, as well as manufactures special steels. The New Consumption segment consists of motor, food and consumer products business, telecommunication services, publication services, modern agriculture services, and others. The New-Type Urbanisation segment develops, holds, and sells properties; and provides contracting and design services, as well as infrastructure, environmental, and commercial aviation services. It provides securities, trust, financial, and securities related services; and consumer finance, resources, energy conservation and environmental protection, and engineering contracting services, as well as real estate development and management; and insurance and reinsurance services. The company was formerly known as CITIC Pacific Limited and changed its name to CITIC Limited in August 2014. CITIC Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. CITIC Limited operates as a subsidiary of CITIC Group Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CITIC Limited reported revenue of $748B in FY2025 versus $905B in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $57.1B in FY2025, compounding −5.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −18.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CTPCY screens 15% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 385 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 553,000 KRW | 615,077 KRW | +11% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,860 IDR | 9,720 IDR | +100% |
| Koç Holding KCHOL | 205.80 TRY | 182.26 TRY | -11% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,585 | ₹859.71 | -67% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,030 CLP | 10,809 CLP | +79% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 54,300 KRW | 71,119 KRW | +31% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,839 | ₹723.80 | -75% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 436,000 KRW | 93,413 KRW | -79% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,002 | ₹1,343 | -66% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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