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Data-driven stock valuation

Citic Ltd ADR (CTPCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Citic Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · US · Market cap $48.8B · ISIN US17304K1025

At a glance

CL Citic Ltd ADR logo Citic Ltd ADR CTPCY · US
Price$8.57
Fair Value$6.49
Upside−24.3%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 32% above our fair value of $6.49.

As of Sep 2, 2026, the fair value of Citic Ltd ADR is $6.49 per share against a price of $8.57, so the fair value sits 24% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·6.83% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 1 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $4.87 to $6.49

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from $6.50 to $6.49 (−0.2%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +28.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$8.71 $2.39 Fair Value $6.49 Feb 2016 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.39 – $8.71 · fair‑value band $4.87 – $6.49 · the $8.57 price screens above the $6.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Citic Ltd ADR (CTPCY) currently trades at $8.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.49, implying the stock looks roughly 32.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 86/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Citic Ltd ADR generated revenue of $945B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 1.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $1.8T. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Scenario range: $4.87 (bear) to $6.49 (bull), the price of $8.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −24%, CTPCY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6155 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $109.87 $116.21 $126.49 76
Owner Earnings n/a n/a $31.68 73
5Y P/E Exit n/a n/a $131.70 68
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings n/a n/a $31.68 73
5Y P/E Exit n/a n/a $131.70 68
10Y P/E Exit n/a n/a $96.69 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $66.75 $381.05 $529.75 63
Lynch FV $107.20 $153.14 $199.08 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $25.01 $52.00 $82.49 66
DDM Multi-Stage $25.01 $43.85 $54.58 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $154.61 $206.14 $257.68 63
P/B Multiple $125.16 $166.88 $208.60 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $67.26 $90.12 $134.51 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $109.87 $116.21 $126.49 76

Widest divergence: Multiples ($166.88) versus Dividend Discount ($43.85). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.8
P/S ratio 0.44 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.48 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.8
Dividend yield 6.8% payout 39.5%
Net margin 7.6% FY2025
Return on equity 7.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 29.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $945B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −1.8% 3y avg −4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −25.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $5.1B FY2025
Net debt $1.8T FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CITIC Limited operates in the financial services, advanced intelligent manufacturing, advanced materials, consumption, and urbanization businesses in the Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The Comprehensive Financial Services segment provides banking, securities, trust, insurance, and asset management services.

Full company description

CITIC Limited operates in the financial services, advanced intelligent manufacturing, advanced materials, consumption, and urbanization businesses in the Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The Comprehensive Financial Services segment provides banking, securities, trust, insurance, and asset management services. The Advanced Intelligent Manufacturing segment manufactures heavy machineries, specialized robotics, aluminium wheels, aluminium casting parts, and other products. The Advanced Materials segment includes exploration, processing, and trading of resources and energy products comprising iron ore, copper, and crude oil, as well as manufactures special steels. The New Consumption segment consists of motor, food and consumer products business, telecommunication services, publication services, modern agriculture services, and others. The New-Type Urbanisation segment develops, holds, and sells properties; and provides contracting and design services, as well as infrastructure, environmental, and commercial aviation services. It provides securities, trust, financial, and securities related services; and consumer finance, resources, energy conservation and environmental protection, and engineering contracting services, as well as real estate development and management; and insurance and reinsurance services. The company was formerly known as CITIC Pacific Limited and changed its name to CITIC Limited in August 2014. CITIC Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. CITIC Limited operates as a subsidiary of CITIC Group Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Citic Ltd ADR reported revenue of $748B in FY2025 versus $905B in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $57.1B in FY2025, compounding −5.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$748B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+0.2%
Dividend yield6.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 0.2% vs 10Y −13.1%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31.8% (1997) → 17.5% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop216% (2008) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue −4.6%/yr
FY21 $905B
FY22 $845B
FY23 $681B
FY24 $892B
FY25 $748B
Net income −5.0%/yr
FY21 $70.2B
FY22 $73.5B
FY23 $57.5B
FY24 $54.7B
FY25 $57.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −13.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share −12.9 %

of which total revenue +5.1 % · buybacks/dilution −17.1 %

EBIT margin −5.7 %
Tax rate +0.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +5.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

CTPCY screens 32% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →

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Citic Ltd ADR · Fair Value
$6.49 −32%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Citic Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTPCY

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 376 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −24% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.24× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 9.5× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Citic Ltd ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+39.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+0.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price10.26 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.9 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE1 · sector 27
FUTURE0 · sector 17
PAST32 · sector 17
HEALTH0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND100 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 7.20 THB 14.40 THB +100%
3M Company MMM $168.56 $76.87 −54%
Honeywell International Inc HON $209.61 $218.95 +4%
CITIC Limited 0267 HK$13.02 HK$26.04 +100%
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €26.90 €7.65 −72%
Swire Pacific Limited 0019 HK$106.30 HK$36.88 −65%
CK Hutchison Holdings 0001 HK$69.85 HK$100.46 +44%
SK Inc 034730 553,000 KRW 615,077 KRW +11%
PT Astra International Tbk, ASII 4,800 IDR 9,600 IDR +100%
Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 $58.42 $79.11 +35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Citic Ltd ADR (CTPCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.49 versus a price of $8.57, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTPCY?
Our model-based fair value for Citic Ltd ADR is $6.49 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.57.
What is the quality score of CTPCY?
Citic Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Citic Ltd ADR (CTPCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.49 (as of Sep 2, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.87, optimistic scenario $6.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Citic Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.49, about −24% upside versus a price of $8.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.87, optimistic scenario $6.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Citic Ltd ADR (CTPCY)?
Citic Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $945B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CTPCY?
The net profit margin of Citic Ltd ADR is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Citic Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Citic Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Citic Ltd ADR (CTPCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Citic Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +39.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Sep 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTPCY use?
Our models discount Citic Ltd ADR at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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