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China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited $0.12, price $0.15, upside -20.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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CT
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited
CTVIF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $0.1200 · Overvalued (−20.0%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +15.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓6.7% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0702 – $0.3154 · fair‑value band $0.0900 – $0.1500 · the $0.1500 price screens above the $0.1200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited provides travel and tourism services. It operates through four segments: Tourist Attraction and Related Operations, Travel Document and Related Operations, Hotel Operations, and Passenger Transportation Operations.
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China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited provides travel and tourism services. It operates through four segments: Tourist Attraction and Related Operations, Travel Document and Related Operations, Hotel Operations, and Passenger Transportation Operations. The Tourist Attraction and Related Operations segment operates theme parks, natural and cultural scenic spots in Mainland China. The Travel Document and Related Operations segment engages in the provision of travel document and related services in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The Hotel Operations segment offers hotel accommodation, and food and beverage services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. The Passenger Transportation Operations segment provides cross-border transportation services to individuals travelling between Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China; and engages in vehicle and vessel rental and charter operations in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF) currently trades at $0.1500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1200, 20.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.1700 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the $0.1500 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0900 (bear) to $0.1500 (bull), the price of $0.1500 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited reported revenue of HK$4.1B in FY2025 versus HK$3.6B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$282M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 11.0 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin −6.9% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 39% fair-value upside, at −20%, CTVIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0900
Fair Value $0.1200
Bull $0.1500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.0800
$0.0900
$0.1100
82
Growth DCF
$0.0800
$0.0900
$0.1000
80
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.1500
$0.2200
$0.3100
75
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.0800
$0.0900
$0.1100
82
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.0900
$0.1100
$0.1500
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.1500
$0.2200
$0.3100
75
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.0800
$0.1000
$0.1200
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.1200
$0.1600
$0.2200
69
Earnings-Based
EPV
$0.0700
$0.0700
$0.0800
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0300
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0400
67
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$0.1300
$0.1600
$0.1900
66
EV/EBITDA
$0.2300
$0.2900
$0.3600
67
EV/Revenue
$0.1000
$0.1300
$0.1500
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1300
$0.1700
$0.2600
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.0800
$0.0900
$0.1000
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.0900
$0.1100
$0.1400
74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$0.0700
$0.0700
$0.0800
72
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Profitability
8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.8% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−39.7% (2020) → 7.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.9% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.0%
Compare China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 174 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$149.20 | HK$206.97 | +39% |
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$71.20 | HK$166.89 | +134% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $27.77 | $19.30 | −31% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $89.98 | $85.98 | −4% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $39.97 | $15.55 | −61% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.06 | ¥108.20 | +192% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $83.02 | $43.08 | −48% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,145 PLN | 5,660 PLN | +10% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$12.24 | HK$29.18 | +138% |
| Mattel, Inc MAT | $13.29 | $21.66 | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1200 versus a price of $0.1500, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTVIF?
Our model-based fair value for China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is $0.1200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1500.
What is the quality score of CTVIF?
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0900, optimistic scenario $0.1500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1200, about −20% upside versus a price of $0.1500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0900, optimistic scenario $0.1500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited pay a dividend?
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTVIF use?
Our models discount China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited that is +21.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited grew +15.7 % a year. The price currently implies +21.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (+21.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.46 %: that much free cash flow China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited it is $0.1200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1500. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CTVIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1500, fair value $0.1200, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTVIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1200). For China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited the two are $0.0300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited worth?
The market values China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1500; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTVIF?
Our models span a range for China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited: cautious scenario $0.0900, base $0.1200, optimistic $0.1500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTVIF?
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.1200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTVIF from its 52-week high?
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited trades at $0.1500, about 22% below its 52-week high of $0.1921 and 104% above the low of $0.0735 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1500, calculated fair value $0.1200 (−20%), Quality Score 46/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTVIF calculated?
We run China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.1500. Our model-based fair value is $0.1200, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
The market capitalisation of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
Earnings per share at China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
The dividend yield of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is 6.7% (payout 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
The net margin of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is −6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
The operating margin of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
Revenue at China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited is growing −7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF)?
Earnings per share at China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited are growing +178% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (CTVIF) hold?
China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited holds more cash than debt, HK$260M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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