Citycon Oyj (CTY1S) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Citycon Oyj €4.52, price €2.97, upside +52.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.14 – €4.44 · fair‑value band €4.52 – €6.90 · the €2.97 price screens below the €4.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Citycon Oyj, a real estate investment company, owns and develops mixed-use centers in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Estonia. It develops mixed-use centers that include retail, offices, hotels, and housing, as well as for food and beverage, healthcare, culture, and leisure services.
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Citycon Oyj, a real estate investment company, owns and develops mixed-use centers in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Estonia. It develops mixed-use centers that include retail, offices, hotels, and housing, as well as for food and beverage, healthcare, culture, and leisure services. Citycon Oyj was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland. As of March 6, 2026, Citycon Oyj operates as a subsidiary of G City Ltd.
Stock analysis
Citycon Oyj (CTY1S) currently trades at €2.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.52, implying the stock looks roughly 34.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €8.79 per share, and 8 of the 14 models we run sit above the €2.97 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €1.48, and 6 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €4.52 (bear) to €6.90 (bull), the price of €2.97 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Citycon Oyj reported revenue of €298M in FY2025 versus €292M in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was €94.9M in FY2025, compounding −5.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €548M · P/E ratio 2.1 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) €1.41 · Net margin 31.9% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin 58.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 52%, CTY1S screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €4.52Fair Value €4.52Bull €6.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.03 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs −4%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 59%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 132 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+52% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)37% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)59% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.23× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Citycon Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTY1S
Frequently asked questions
Is Citycon Oyj (CTY1S) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.52 versus a price of €2.97, about +52% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTY1S?
Our model-based fair value for Citycon Oyj is €4.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.97.
What is the quality score of CTY1S?
Citycon Oyj has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.52, optimistic scenario €6.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Citycon Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.52, about +52% upside versus a price of €2.97 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €4.52, optimistic scenario €6.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
Citycon Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €305M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Citycon Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +17.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTY1S use?
Our models discount Citycon Oyj at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Citycon Oyj that is +17.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Citycon Oyj (CTY1S) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Citycon Oyj grew +0.2 % a year. The price currently implies +17.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Citycon Oyj (+17.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.06 %: that much free cash flow Citycon Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Citycon Oyj it is €4.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €2.97. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Citycon Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CTY1S trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.97, fair value €4.52, a gap of about +52% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTY1S?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.52). For Citycon Oyj the two are €1.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Citycon Oyj worth?
The market values Citycon Oyj at about €548M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €2.97; our models calculate a fair value of €4.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTY1S?
Our models span a range for Citycon Oyj: cautious scenario €4.52, base €4.52, optimistic €6.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €2.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTY1S?
Citycon Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 0.5, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
What is the PEG ratio of CTY1S?
The PEG ratio of Citycon Oyj is 2.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
Balance-sheet figures for Citycon Oyj (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 1.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTY1S from its 52-week high?
Citycon Oyj trades at €2.97, about 16% below its 52-week high of €3.53 and 38% above the low of €2.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Citycon Oyj?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Citycon Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €2.97, calculated fair value €4.52 (+52%), Quality Score 61/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTY1S calculated?
We run Citycon Oyj through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Citycon Oyj currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €2.97. Our model-based fair value is €4.52, about +52% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Citycon Oyj right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€4.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Citycon Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
The market capitalisation of Citycon Oyj is €548M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Citycon Oyj is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
Earnings per share at Citycon Oyj are €1.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
The net margin of Citycon Oyj is 31.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Citycon Oyj is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Citycon Oyj is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
The operating margin of Citycon Oyj is 58.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
Revenue at Citycon Oyj is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Citycon Oyj (CTY1S)?
Earnings per share at Citycon Oyj are growing +90.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Citycon Oyj (CTY1S) carry?
The net debt of Citycon Oyj is €2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 27.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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