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China Oriental Group (CUGCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of China Oriental Group $0.15, price $0.13, upside +12.1%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
China Oriental Group
CUGCF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $0.1500 · Undervalued (+12.1%)
!Quality 49/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!13.5% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1338 – $0.3150 · fair‑value band $0.1100 – $0.1900 · the $0.1338 price screens below the $0.1500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
China Oriental Group Company Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel products for downstream steel manufacturers in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Iron and Steel, and Real Estate segments.
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China Oriental Group Company Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel products for downstream steel manufacturers in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Iron and Steel, and Real Estate segments. The company offers H-section steel products for use in non-residential construction and infrastructure projects; strips and strip products; cold rolled sheets for use in manufacturing home electric appliances, hardware, and pipes, etc.; galvanized sheets for production of civil-purpose sheets; billets for use as substrate in downstream steel products; and rebars for use in residential and non-residential projects, as well as sheet piling products. It also engages in the trade of steel, iron ore, and related products; sale of power equipment; manufacture and sale of casting products; equipment maintenance; and real estate business. China Oriental Group Company Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Oriental Group (CUGCF) currently trades at $0.1338, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1500, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.6000 per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the $0.1338 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0800, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1100 (bear) to $0.1900 (bull), the price of $0.1338 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
China Oriental Group reported revenue of 39.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 52.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 219M CNY in FY2025, compounding −45.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $708M · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Dividend yield 13.5% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at 12%, CUGCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1100
Fair Value $0.1500
Bull $0.1900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$0.5800
$0.5400
$0.5100
76
EPV
$0.4600
$0.4800
$0.4900
74
ROIC Compounder
$0.4600
$0.4800
$0.4900
72
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.0600
$0.1000
$0.1200
67
EPV
$0.4600
$0.4800
$0.4900
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.0700
$0.0800
$0.1000
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0700
$0.0900
$0.1100
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.1100
$0.1500
$0.1900
63
P/S Multiple
$0.1100
$0.1500
$0.1900
58
P/B Multiple
$0.1100
$0.1500
$0.1900
55
EV/EBIT
$0.6200
$0.7200
$0.8300
66
EV/EBITDA
$0.8800
$1.07
$1.27
67
EV/Revenue
$0.5800
$0.6900
$0.8100
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.4500
$0.6000
$0.9000
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.5800
$0.5400
$0.5100
76
ROIC Compounder
$0.4600
$0.4800
$0.4900
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.0800
$0.1100
$0.1500
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Profitability
23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
19/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−38.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−38.5% vs −7.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 406 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $236.24 | $116.49 | −51% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €59.82 | €35.15 | −41% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $230.39 | $127.93 | −44% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,233 | ₹1,095 | −11% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹178.00 | ₹147.10 | −17% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $393.04 | $211.55 | −46% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.84 | ¥8.07 | +38% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 311,000 KRW | 155,270 KRW | −50% |
| Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 | ¥2.09 | ¥0.5300 | −75% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,165 | ₹516.27 | −56% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Oriental Group (CUGCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1500 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.1338, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CUGCF?
Our model-based fair value for China Oriental Group is $0.1500 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.1338.
What is the quality score of CUGCF?
China Oriental Group has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1500 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1100, optimistic scenario $0.1900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Oriental Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1500, about +12% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.1338 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1100, optimistic scenario $0.1900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
China Oriental Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 40.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Oriental Group pay a dividend?
China Oriental Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Oriental Group it is $0.1500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1338. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Oriental Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CUGCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1338, fair value $0.1500, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CUGCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1338); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1500). For China Oriental Group the two are $0.0162 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Oriental Group worth?
The market values China Oriental Group at about $708M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1338; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CUGCF?
Our models span a range for China Oriental Group: cautious scenario $0.1100, base $0.1500, optimistic $0.1900 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1338). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CUGCF?
China Oriental Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.1500 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Oriental Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CUGCF from its 52-week high?
China Oriental Group trades at $0.1338, about 30% below its 52-week high of $0.1902 and at the low of $0.1338 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Oriental Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Oriental Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1338, calculated fair value $0.1500 (+12%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CUGCF calculated?
We run China Oriental Group through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Oriental Group currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.1338. Our model-based fair value is $0.1500, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Oriental Group right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of China Oriental Group (CUGCF) come from?
Earnings per share at China Oriental Group grew −10.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.8 %, EBIT margin −11.5 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Oriental Group
How large is the market capitalisation of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
The market capitalisation of China Oriental Group is $708M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Oriental Group is 0.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
Earnings per share at China Oriental Group are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
The dividend yield of China Oriental Group is 13.5% (payout 180%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
The net margin of China Oriental Group is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Oriental Group is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Oriental Group is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
The operating margin of China Oriental Group is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
Revenue at China Oriental Group is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Oriental Group (CUGCF)?
Earnings per share at China Oriental Group are growing −41.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Oriental Group (CUGCF) generate?
The free cash flow of China Oriental Group is −52.1M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Oriental Group (CUGCF) carry?
The net debt of China Oriental Group is 7.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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